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1. At a Glance – The Curious Case of “Almost There” Tech Company

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Subex — the company that claims to power 75% of the world’s top telecom operators… yet struggles to grow its own revenue.

Let that sink in.

A firm serving global telecom giants, talking about AI, GenAI, fraud detection, analytics… and still doing ₹277 Cr annual revenue with declining growth. It’s like being the fitness trainer of Virat Kohli but still having a beer belly yourself.

Now here’s the spicy part:

• Sales declining at -7.4% YoY
• 5-year sales CAGR: -4.79%
• ROE: -11.3%
• Promoter holding: 0% (!!)
• Yet trading at P/E of 140

And suddenly in Q3 FY26… boom:

• PAT jumps
• Margins improve
• Management starts talking about “recovery”
• AI becomes the new buzzword (because obviously)

But wait…

The concall quietly admits:

“Growth still eludes us a little bit.”

So the real story is not about profitability…
It’s about whether this company can actually grow again.

Because right now, Subex looks like:

• A comeback story… or
• A glorified PowerPoint startup with listed equity

So here’s the real question:

Is Subex finally turning around… or just dressing up the same old problems in AI clothing?

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2. Introduction – Telecom AI Wizard… Without Magic Revenue

Subex has been around since 1992.

That’s older than most startup founders who now talk about AI like it’s a religion.

The company’s pitch is simple:

• Help telecom companies stop revenue leakage
• Detect fraud
• Improve operations
• Add AI to everything

Basically, they are the “internal auditor” of telecom companies.

And globally, they’re not small:

• 150+ customers
• Presence in 100+ countries
• 300+ installations

Sounds impressive, right?

Then why does revenue look like it’s stuck in a Mumbai traffic jam since 2018?

Let’s break the irony:

• Subex helps telecom companies maximize revenue
• But its own revenue has declined for 5 years straight

This is like:

• A dietician who can’t lose weight
• A CA who can’t file their own GST return

Now management claims:

• “Strategic groundwork done”
• “Execution in full swing”
• “Recovery visible”

But investors on concall asked the only real question:

“Where is the growth?”

And management said:

“Growth still eludes us.”

At least they’re honest.

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3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?

Let’s simplify Subex’s business for normal humans.

Core Idea:

They sell software + services to telecom companies.

What kind of software?

• Fraud detection (SIM fraud, handset fraud, etc.)
• Revenue assurance (making sure telecom companies don’t lose money)
• Analytics (AI dashboards, insights)
• Managed services (they run systems for clients)

Key Products:

• HyperSense (AI platform)
• FraudZap (new AI product)
• Managed Services
• Consulting

Revenue Mix:

• Subcontracting services: ~70%
• Managed services: ~11%
• Others small

So basically:

👉 This is NOT a SaaS company
👉 This is mostly a services company pretending to be SaaS

And that matters a lot.

Because:

• Services = slow growth, low margins
• SaaS = scalable, high margins

Now here’s the twist from concall:

• Old products → revenue comes after 3 quarters
• New AI products (FraudZap) → revenue faster

So management is trying to:
Shift from slow revenue to fast revenue model

Question for you:

Can a 30-year-old services company suddenly become an AI SaaS rocket?

Or is this just a rebranding exercise?

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4. Financials Overview – The “Finally Some Green” Quarter

(Quarterly Results detected → EPS annualised)

Financial Table (₹ Crores)

Metric	Q3 FY26	Q3 FY25	Q2 FY26	YoY %	QoQ %
Revenue	70.79	72.69	68.91	-2.6%	+2.7%
EBITDA	9.04	2.50	6.28	+261%	+44%
PAT	2.93	-3.25	2.86	Turnaround	+2.4%
EPS (₹)	0.05	-0.06	0.05	Turnaround	Flat

Annualised EPS:

= 0.05 × 4 = ₹0.20

P/E Calculation:

Price = ₹8.19
EPS = ₹0.20

👉 P/E ≈ 41