1. At a Glance – The Curious Case of “Almost There” Tech Company
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Subex — the company that claims to power 75% of the world’s top telecom operators… yet struggles to grow its own revenue.
Let that sink in.
A firm serving global telecom giants, talking about AI, GenAI, fraud detection, analytics… and still doing ₹277 Cr annual revenue with declining growth. It’s like being the fitness trainer of Virat Kohli but still having a beer belly yourself.
Now here’s the spicy part:
- Sales declining at -7.4% YoY
- 5-year sales CAGR: -4.79%
- ROE: -11.3%
- Promoter holding: 0% (!!)
- Yet trading at P/E of 140
And suddenly in Q3 FY26… boom:
- PAT jumps
- Margins improve
- Management starts talking about “recovery”
- AI becomes the new buzzword (because obviously)
But wait…
The concall quietly admits:
“Growth still eludes us a little bit.”
So the real story is not about profitability…
It’s about whether this company can actually grow again.
Because right now, Subex looks like:
- A comeback story… or
- A glorified PowerPoint startup with listed equity
So here’s the real question:
Is Subex finally turning around… or just dressing up the same old problems in AI clothing?
2. Introduction – Telecom AI Wizard… Without Magic Revenue
Subex has been around since 1992.
That’s older than most startup founders who now talk about AI like it’s a religion.
The company’s pitch is simple:
- Help telecom companies stop revenue leakage
- Detect fraud
- Improve operations
- Add AI to everything
Basically, they are the “internal auditor” of telecom companies.
And globally, they’re not small:
- 150+ customers
- Presence in 100+ countries
- 300+ installations
Sounds impressive, right?
Then why does revenue look like it’s stuck in a Mumbai traffic jam since 2018?
Let’s break the irony:
- Subex helps telecom companies maximize revenue
- But its own revenue has declined for 5 years straight
This is like:
- A dietician who can’t lose weight
- A CA who can’t file their own GST return
Now management claims:
- “Strategic groundwork done”
