1. At a Glance
Kotyark Industries is the guy who showed up at the EV party with a biodiesel jug, only to find the OMCs (IOCL/HPCL/BPCL) canceling their drink orders. Incorporated in 2016, this Rajasthan-Gujarat based biofuel player scaled capacity like there’s no tomorrow—1,500 KL/day biodiesel—but just when the barrels were ready, tenders got yanked in March 2025. Result? Q4 FY25 saw sales drop39%and PAT slip into the red. The stock is now 70% below its 52-week high, proving once again: green energy in India is less about carbon neutrality, more about tender politics.
2. Introduction
The pitch is dreamy: India’s transport runs on imported crude, so why not replace it with locally-produced biodiesel from non-edible oils? Kotyark took this pitch seriously, building capacity, mobile retail outlets (25 highway stations underGreen N Green), and tender-based relationships with the OMC big boys.
On the ground, however, the biodiesel sector in India is a regulatory rollercoaster. Orders appear, disappear, and reappear depending on the government’s mood, subsidy politics, and “administrative reasons.” Kotyark learned this the hard way when its big OMC allocations for FY24 gotcancelled—leading to idle inventory and stressed margins. April 2025 brought some relief with ₹110 Cr fresh LOIs, but recovery remains patchy.
Investors, once euphoric, dumped the stock from₹1,195 peak → ₹380 CMP, a 68% wipeout. To add masala, the Rajasthan government made surprise visits alleging compliance lapses, adding courtroom drama to their biofuel saga.
3. Business Model (WTF Do They Even Do?)
Kotyark’s model is simple:
- Manufacturing Biodiesel (B100):Using vegetable oils, alcohols, and catalysts to make neat biodiesel. Efficiency: 99%.
- By-product Glycerin:~14 KL for every 100 KL biodiesel. Sold to pharma, cosmetics, and food industries.
- Clients:OMCs via tenders (mainstay), bulk buyers (transport contractors, miners), and retail (via MROs).
Revenue = 90%+ tender-driven. Translation: if IOCL wakes up cranky, Kotyark’s quarterly P&L gets wrecked.
4. Financials Overview
Q4 FY25 Snapshot vs YoY & QoQ:
| Metric | Latest Qtr (Mar 2025) | YoY Qtr (Mar 2024) | Prev Qtr (Sep 2024) | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹87.0 Cr | ₹143.6 Cr | ₹197.1 Cr | -39.4% | -55.9% |
| EBITDA | ₹6.0 Cr | ₹25.3 Cr | ₹36.0 Cr | -76.3% | -83.3% |
| PAT | -₹3.8 Cr | ₹18.4 Cr | ₹18.0 Cr | -133% | -121% |
| EPS (₹) | -3.69 | 17.39 | 11.13 | NA | NA |
Commentary:Margins fell from double-digit to single-digit hell. EPS went negative. The quarter screamed:“We expanded, but where’s the offtake?”
Annualised EPS recalculated = ₹13.7 → P/E = 27.7×. Expensive for a loss-making quarter.
5. Valuation (Fair Value RANGE only)
Method 1: P/E Method
- EPS (TTM) = ₹13.7
- Apply biofuel peer band (15–22×).
- FV = ₹205 – ₹300
Method 2: EV/EBITDA
- EBITDA (TTM) = ₹42 Cr
- EV = ₹447 Cr → EV/EBITDA = 10.6×
- Peer avg ~12–14× → FV = ₹450 – ₹550
Method 3: DCF (Simplified)
- PAT ~₹14 Cr normalised. Assume 12% growth, 12% WACC, 6% terminal.
- FV ≈ ₹300 – ₹350
Final FV Range:₹250 – ₹500This FV range is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
- Tender Cancellations (Mar 2025):Big OMC allocations scrapped = revenue crash.
- Fresh LOIs (Apr–Jul 2025):₹110 Cr new orders provide lifeline.
- Capacity Expansion:Sirohi plant ramped to 1,500 KL/day. Looks great on PPTs, useless without orders.
- Regulatory Raids:Rajasthan tax
