1. At a Glance
GE Vernova T&D India Ltd (formerly GE T&D) is that grand old player in the transmission and distribution (T&D) sector that’s been around for over a century, quietly wiring up half the country. Suddenly, it’s the market’s darling: order book 3x in three years, margins flipped from negative to 19%, and the stock gave 185% in 3 years. Sounds like an energy renaissance, until you see the P/E of390. Yes, three hundred ninety — that’s not a valuation, that’s a stand-up joke disguised as a multiple.
2. Introduction
Electricity in India is like WiFi at your uncle’s house: everyone wants it, no one knows where it’s coming from, and when it fails, everyone blames the provider. Into this chaos steps GE Vernova T&D India Ltd (GVT&D), the desi arm of the global GE Vernova empire.
Born in the pre-Independence era and reborn multiple times (latest name change in Oct 2024), this company has survived licence raj, Enron’s ghost, and power sector reforms that aged faster than milk in Chennai’s summer. Today, GVT&D boasts an order book nearing ₹10,000 Cr and exports to 75 countries. Its clientele reads like the Forbes list of energy and industry: NTPC, Adani, Tata Power, Power Grid, Reliance, JSW. Even Amazon — because apparently, cloud storage now needs transformers too.
The transformation in numbers is jaw-dropping. EBITDA margin swung from -2.7% in FY22 (aka “loss-making contractor”) to nearly 20% in H1 FY25 (aka “premium operator”). Order inflow is booming, with exports nearly half the pie. Investors, naturally, threw themselves at the stock, pumping it from ₹1,253 lows to ₹2,844. And in their excitement, they ignored a P/E multiple higher than Sensex’s age.
3. Business Model (WTF Do They Even Do?)
GVT&D makes the boring but critical plumbing of the power sector.
- Products:Transformers, switchgear, circuit breakers, instrument transformers, substation automation, FACTS, HVDC solutions — basically, everything between generation plants and your air conditioner. Covers 1200 kV ultra-high voltage down to medium-voltage gear.
- Services:Turnkey contracts for substations and digital monitoring solutions. About 50% of India’s power flow is monitored via their digital software. Half the country depends on them; the other half depends on inverters when the grid fails.
- Geography:69% domestic, 31% exports
- (FY24). Export share rising fast.
- Revenue Mix (FY24):
- Execution of contracts – 59%
- Sale of products – 40%
- Services & others – 1%
They also run five manufacturing facilities in Tamil Nadu, Chennai, Noida, and Gujarat. In short: if you see giant transformers while travelling by train, odds are they made it.
4. Financials Overview
Annual (FY25 vs FY24 vs FY22):
| Metric | FY25 (TTM) | FY24 | FY22 | YoY % (FY25/FY24) | 3Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 4,020 | 3,265 | 2,231 | 23.1% | 34.8% |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 473 | 352 | -60 | 34.4% | — |
| PAT (₹ Cr) | 187 | 102 | -183 | 83.3% | — |
| EPS (₹) | 7.8 | 4.2 | -7.6 | 85.7% | — |
Commentary:Revenue steady climb, margins expanded like jeans post-lockdown, profits back from the dead. But EPS of ₹7.8 against CMP of ₹2,844 = absurd P/E of 390.
5. Valuation (Fair Value RANGE only)
a) P/E MethodEPS (TTM) = ₹7.8.Industry P/E ~47.Fair Value = ₹350 – ₹400.
b) EV/EBITDA MethodEBITDA (FY25) = ₹473 Cr. EV/EBITDA industry ~20.EV ≈ ₹9,460 Cr → Per share ≈ ₹370.
c) DCF (Quick & Dirty)PAT ₹187 Cr, assume 20% CAGR for 5 years. Discount at 12%.FV ≈ ₹500–₹600.
Final FV Range:₹350 – ₹600.
This FV range is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
- Order Book Boom:₹9,836 Cr order book in H1 FY25 vs ₹3,723 Cr in FY22. That’s 2.6x growth in 3 years.
