1. At a Glance
Alpex Solar Ltd, born in 2008 and IPO’d in 2024, is North India’s solar hustler. It went from ₹195 Cr revenue in FY23 to ₹1,084 Cr in FY25. PAT? Exploded from ₹27 Cr in FY24 to ₹125 Cr in FY25, with quarterly profit growth of 3,890% in June 2025. The market rewarded this with a ₹3,241 Cr valuation at a P/E of 26. But despite all this cash, dividends = zero. Investors get sunlight in their hearts, not in their bank accounts. Expansion plans to 2.4 GW modules, 1.6 GW solar cells, and 12,000 tons aluminium frames scream ambition. Whether it’s execution brilliance or solar FOMO, Alpex is shining dangerously bright.
2. Introduction
Solar companies in India usually fall into two buckets: those that dream big and burn cash, and those that actually deliver panels and invoices. Alpex Solar has somehow squeezed itself in between—selling panels, installing pumps, and casually announcing multi-GW expansion projects like kids order Maggi at a hostel canteen.
Started as a module maker, Alpex grew by piggybacking on government schemes (PM Kusum), corporate clients (NTPC, Tata Power Solar), and a healthy side hustle of solar pumps. But it didn’t stop there. Circular knitting needles, yarn, and air purifiers somehow ended up in the product list too—because why not? Diversification, or just boredom, who knows.
The stock listed on NSE Emerge in February 2024 at ₹115. Within a year, it’s trading at ₹1,324—a 10-bagger. Cue jealous glances from rival SMEs. But unlike many SME IPOs, Alpex actually has capacity, orders, and profits to justify the hype. The risk? Overexpansion. Building solar cell capacity worth ₹642 Cr while running EPC, IPP, and aluminium plants could either make them Waaree’s pesky cousin or just another over-leveraged “solar dream gone wrong.”
3. Business Model (WTF Do They Even Do?)
Alpex Solar =PV Module Manufacturer + EPC Contractor + Solar Pump King + Ambitious Vertical Integrator.
- Modules:900 MW existing, 2.4 GW target by FY26.
- Solar Cells:500 MW by Sep 2025 → 1.6 GW by Sep 2026. Huge backward integration.
- Aluminium Frames:First mover in
- India, 6,000 T capacity by FY25, 12,000 T by FY26.
- EPC:45 MW FY25 → 150 MW FY27.
- IPP:30 MW FY25 → 100 MW FY27.
- Pumps:15,000+ solar pumps installed.
- Side Hustles:Trading knitting needles, yarn, air purifiers. (Not kidding.)
Client list: NTPC, Tata Power Solar, HAL, Luminous, Premier Energies, plus multiple state governments. Basically, half of PSU India is a client.
Revenue split FY24: Products 99% (solar panels, pumps), services negligible. Segment revenue ~98% solar, ~2% knitting needles/others.
4. Financials Overview
Quarterly (Q1 FY26 vs Q1 FY25 vs Q4 FY25)
| Metric | Q1 FY26 | Q1 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹380 Cr | ₹77 Cr | ₹327 Cr | +396% | +16% |
| EBITDA | ₹63 Cr | ₹4 Cr | ₹54 Cr | +1,475% | +17% |
| PAT | ₹42.3 Cr | ₹1 Cr | ₹35 Cr | +3,890% | +21% |
| EPS (₹) | 17.3 | 0.43 | 14.4 | +3,920% | +20% |
Annualised EPS = ₹69 → P/E =19xon CMP (adjusted).
5. Valuation (Fair Value RANGE Only)
- P/E Method:EPS annualised ₹69 × 20–28 =₹1,380 – ₹1,930.
- EV/EBITDA Method:EBITDA (TTM) ₹186 Cr, EV ₹3,274 Cr → EV/EBITDA = 17.6x. Fair multiple 14–18x → FV ₹2,600 – ₹3,350 Cr → per share ~₹1,080 – ₹1,390.
- DCF (ballpark):Assuming 25% growth, 12% discount, 4% terminal → FV₹1,200 – ₹1,500.
Overall FV Range:₹1,080 – ₹1,930This FV range is for educational purposes
