While Target has seen a steady decline in same-store visits for roughly the past 18 months, Walmart has made gains in that area.
Foot traffic is not a be-all, end-all metric because both of these chains are omnichannel retailers, but In Target’s place they do tell you a lot about the health of the brand.
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For Target, however, foot traffic has generally been a good gauge of how people feel about the brand. It was not that long ago that the media was dubbing the chain as the new mall.
Teenagers may not spend a lot of money, but their presence can make a venue, or a chain, more hip. For a time, it truly felt like Target was trending in that direction.
“Target has faced meaningful challenges, with year-over-year (YoY) same-store visit gaps ranging from 2.2% to 9.7% since February 2025,” according to data from Placer.ai.
Image source: Target Corp.
Target’s digital sales growth has been meaningful
While Target sells groceries, that’s not as big of an in-store sales driver as it is for Walmart. Target has, however shown some positive sides in its e-commerce business.
“Like Walmart, Target’s online growth has been a bright spot – last quarter, the company reported a 4.7% increase in digital comp sales, aided by more than 35% growth in same-day delivery. But this was not enough to offset a 5.7% decline in in-store comp sales,” the data showed.
Target same store visits:
- Q1, 2024: -2.2%
- Q2 2024: 1.1%
- Q3 2024: 0.1%
- Q4, 2024: -1.5%
- Q1, 2025: -4.7%
- Q2, 2025: -3.6%
Target store visits were up in January, but have steadily fallen since then:
Target Store visits in 2025
- January, 2025: 2.9%
- February, 2025: -9.7%
- March, 2025: -7.2%
- April, 2025: -4%
- May, 2025: -2.2%
- June, 2025: -4,4%
- July,2025: -4.7%
Walmart’s business is built for tough times
People who shop at Walmart for groceries tend to shop there a lot.
“Walmart’s vast scale and extensive grocery selection make it a prime destination for habitual, necessity-driven shopping. Between May and July 2025, about 34% of shoppers visited Walmart at least four times a month,” it shared.
The data suggests that Target just isn’t built the way and has a different relationship with its customers.
“Target’s 14% frequent visitor share, on the other hand, reflects its role as a more occasional destination centered on discovery-led shopping experiences – such as its successful Kate Spade collaboration, hailed by the company as the most successful design collab in a decade,” it shared.
Target and Walmart have different paths forward
Walmart appears to have the easier road ahead.
“Walmart’s foot traffic stability combined with proven ecommerce growth positions it well to continue outperforming, especially as consumer caution favors essentials and convenience,” according to Placer.ai.
In addition, the chain’s push into broader, discretionary categories may help attract higher-income consumers who are trading down.
Target faces a tougher road ahead and that’s not only because of choices the chain has made.
“Target’s ability to reignite growth will depend on its success in rejuvenating its competitive edge in the discretionary market – a task likely to be further complicated by anticipated tariffs,” the data company shared.
Target needs to get back to basics
CEO Brian Cornell, who is expected to retire later this year, does seem to understand the mission,
“At Target, our roadmap for growth serves as a guide for bringing the best of our brand to life each day. This includes our assortment of on-trend affordable products and an experience that prioritizes ease, convenience, and a personal touch with every interaction, all at an incredible value. These are the things that make Target, Target,” he shared during the company’s first-quarter earnings call.
The outgoing CEO also appears to fully grasp the depth of the problem.
“For several years now, we’ve seen pressure in our discretionary businesses as spending adjusted down from elevated levels during the pandemic, and then moved further away in the face of historically high inflation and needs-based categories,” he added.
Target vs. Walmart 2025: Quick Take
- Target store visits falling: Feb -9.7%, July -4.7%
- Walmart foot traffic rising: 34% of shoppers visit ≥4 times/month
- Target digital sales up (+4.7%) but can’t offset in-store drop
- Shopping habits differ: Walmart = essentials; Target = discretionary
- Target faces challenges: leadership change, discretionary spend pressure
- Walmart outlook stronger: stable traffic + e-commerce growth
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