1. At a Glance
FirstCry is India’s baby-products emperor — GMV bigger than many FMCG midcaps — yet somehow can’t turn that into net profit. Q1 FY26 delivered ₹1,863 crore revenue and a ₹67 crore net loss. The business is growing GMV at16% YoY, but shareholders are stuck in the “negative EPS daycare” for another quarter.
2. Introduction
Founded in 2010, FirstCry built a multi-channel empire for mothers, babies, and kids — online marketplace, retail stores, and private labels. It’s the default baby registry for Indian millennials, which means every second diaper purchase or stroller complaint runs through their system.
The irony? They’ve mastered customer lifetime value but still haven’t crackedshareholderlifetime value.
3. Business Model (WTF Do They Even Do?)
Revenue streams include:
- Online Marketplace– Core FirstCry.com platform selling baby/kids products across categories.
- Offline Retail– Franchise and company-owned stores across India.
- Private Label Brands– Apparel, toys, accessories with higher margins.
- Marketplace Commissions– Fees from third-party sellers.
Asset base has ballooned from ₹1,678 Cr in 2019 to ₹8,858 Cr in FY25 — largely in fixed assets and inventory scale-up. Unfortunately, profitability hasn’t ballooned with it.
4. Financials Overview
Quarterly Performance – YoY & QoQ
(All values in ₹ crore unless stated)
| Metric | Q1 FY26 | Q1 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,863 | 1,652 | 1,930 | 12.74% | -3.47% |
| EBITDA* | 134 | 144 | 117 | -6.94% | 14.53% |
| PAT | -67 | -76 | -112 | 11.84% | 40.18% |
| EPS (₹) | -0.89 | -0.97 | -1.47 | 8.25% | 39.46% |
*EBITDA = Operating Profit (₹33 Cr) + Depreciation (₹101 Cr)
Commentary:
- Revenue growth is
- steady double digits YoY, but operating leverage still absent.
- QoQ improvement in losses is good optics, but still firmly in red territory.
- Annualised EPS = ₹-3.56 → P/E not meaningful.
5. Valuation (Fair Value RANGE only)
Method 1 – EV/Sales
- TTM Revenue ~₹7,870 Cr.
- Global mid-growth e-com trades 2–3x sales → FV range ₹15,740 – ₹23,610 Cr → ₹302 – ₹454 per share.
Method 2 – P/S vs Peer Group
- Nykaa ~7.3x sales (profitable), Cartrade ~16.6x (profitable), FirstCry loss-making → apply discount at ~2–3x. Same range holds: ₹302 – ₹454.
Method 3 – DCF (Loss-making Adjusted)
- Negative FCF today; assume break-even in 3 years, then 12% growth for 5 years, discount at 14%. FV = ₹280 – ₹350.
Educational FV Range: ₹280 – ₹454(For educational purposes only, not investment advice.)
6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
