1. At a Glance
Bajaj Auto just dropped another quarter of “We’re Still Rich” results — ₹12,500 crore revenue, ₹2,500 crore EBITDA, ₹2,100 crore PAT. The 3W kingpin is still flexing in exports while EV startups burn cash faster than a Diwali rocket. But between supply chain speed bumps and a market that thinks “Pulsar” is both a bike and a dating profile flex, there’s plenty to unpack.
2. Introduction
Once upon a time in Pune, a company decided the world didn’t need more scooters — it needed motorcycles that could scream down highways and still be sold in Nigeria for less than a used Toyota Corolla. Decades later, Bajaj Auto is exporting to 79 countries, holding a KTM stake like a proud parent at a sports day, and telling the EV brigade, “Cool story, but where’s your profit?”
Still, FY26 brings a new challenge: EVs biting into the 2W pie, three-wheeler demand facing policy whiplash, and India’s youth who think public transport is for peasants but still want EMI-free rides.
3. Business Model (WTF Do They Even Do?)
Bajaj Auto runs three engines:
- Motorcycles– 18.2% domestic market share in FY24, exporting more than any Indian peer.
- Three-Wheelers (3W)– The undisputed global volume leader, from India to Africa.
- EV Experiments– Chetak EV trying to be the iPhone of scooters (so far more like the Pixel: loved by techies, ignored by aunties).
The playbook: manufacture at scale, price competitively, and dump so many bikes in global markets that even a Peruvian farmer knows “Bajaj” better than “Harley”.
4. Financials Overview
Q1 FY26 vs Q1 FY25 & Q4 FY25
| Metric | Latest Qtr (Q1 FY26) | YoY Qtr (Q1 FY25) | Prev Qtr (Q4 FY25) | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 12,500 | 11,360 | 12,646 | 10.0% | -1.2% |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 2,500 | 2,200 | 2,358 | 13.6% | 6.0% |
| PAT (₹ Cr) | 2,100 | 1,845 | 1,802 | 13.8% | 16.6% |
| EPS (₹) | 79.15 | 69.55 | 64.52 | 13.8% | 22.7% |
Commentary:EBITDA margins are steady around 20%, showing Bajaj still knows how to squeeze profits out of steel, rubber, and a prayer. EPS growth is sharper than your neighbourhood Bajaj service mechanic’s up-selling skills.
5. Valuation (Fair Value Range)
Method 1 – P/E
- Annualised EPS (₹79.15 × 4) = ₹316.6
- Applying P/E range 26–32 → FV = ₹8,232 – ₹10,131
Method 2 – EV/EBITDA
- Annualised EBITDA = ₹2,500 × 4 = ₹10,000 cr
- EV/EBITDA range 18–22 → FV = ₹8,470 – ₹10,344 per share (post net cash adjustment)
Method 3 – DCF (Simplified)
- Assuming 9% revenue CAGR, 20% OPM, and 12% WACC → FV ≈ ₹8,000 – ₹9,800
Fair Value Range (Educational):₹8,200 – ₹10,100Disclaimer: This FV range is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
- Exportsstill strong — despite currency headwinds in Africa and LatAm.
- EV Expansion– Chetak portfolio growing, production scaling in
