1. At a Glance – Forging Metal, Diluting Equity, Chasing Defence Dreams
If there was ever a company that screams “mid-cap ambition trapped inside small-cap execution,” it’s Tirupati Forge.
Here’s the scene:
A forging company from Rajkot suddenly decides to enter defence manufacturing — not by dipping a toe, but by spending ₹670 mn (₹67 crore) on artillery shells. Meanwhile, promoters are quietly converting warrants like it’s Diwali bonus season. Revenue is rising, margins are dancing, exports are booming… but profits? Still stuck in “trying hard” mode.
And valuation? A spicy 92x P/E.
Let that sink in.
You’re essentially paying premium pricing for a company that:
- Makes flanges (65% revenue… yes, flanges)
- Has ROE under 10%
- Is still figuring out consistent profitability
- Is aggressively diluting equity
But wait — defence entry, export growth, solar cost savings — the narrative is strong.
So the real question is:
Is this a future Bharat Forge junior… or just another “story stock” doing jugaad with shareholder money?
Let’s open the forensic audit file.
2. Introduction – Rajkot to Rockets
Tirupati Forge started in 2012. A classic Indian SME story:
- Start with industrial components
- Build export network
- Slowly climb the value chain
Now suddenly — boom — defence manufacturing.
Because obviously, if you can make flanges, artillery shells are just… bigger flanges?
The company operates in:
- Oil & gas
- Automotive
- Construction
- Aerospace
- And now… defence
Exports already contribute ~65% of revenue.
And guess what?
More than 50% of exports depend on the US market.
So yes, your investment thesis now depends partly on:
- US demand
- Geopolitics
- Defence budgets
- And Rajkot manufacturing discipline
No pressure.
But here’s the twist — management sounds confident. Very confident.
They’re talking about:
- Defence ramp-up
- Capacity expansion
- Strong inbound demand
Every SME CEO’s favourite word: “pipeline”
But investor question:
Pipeline hai… ya pipe dream hai?
3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
Let’s simplify.
Tirupati Forge is basically a metal-bashing company.
They take raw metal →
