At a Glance (50 words)
SignatureGlobal is the NCR’s affordable‐housing heavyweight, swelling presales from ₹1,554 cr in FY23 to ₹2,498 cr in FY25, swinging to a ₹101 cr PAT in FY25 after years of losses, but carrying ₹849 cr net debt. RoE 15% and P/E ~173 signal sky-high expectations—will its ₹1,243 share price hold up?
1️⃣ TL;DR: Punch‐List Edition 🏗️
- Sales Surge: Presales up 60% CAGR over 3 years; 101% TTM growth
- Profit Turnaround: From ₹ –64 cr loss (FY24) to ₹ 101 cr PAT (FY25)
- Balance Sheet: Net debt trimmed from ₹ 1,933 cr → ₹ 849 cr; working capital days volatile at 171
- Returns & Margins: ROCE 8%, RoE 14.9%, operating margins barely 2%
- Valuation Extremes: P/E 173×, P/B 24× versus peers at ~50× and ~2–4×
- Fair-Value Range: ₹300–₹450 based on P/B model
- Verdict: ★★ business, ☆☆☆ valuation, ★ turnaround buzz
2️⃣ What’s the Blueprint? 🏘️
| Aspect | Snapshot |
|---|---|
| Core | Affordable & mid-segment housing in Delhi NCR |
| Market Share | ~27% in Gurugram; ~13% across NCR (by units sold) |
| Presales | 30,000+ units sold; ₹ 1,241 cr in FY25 |
| Model | Land acquisition → development → sales → construction finance |
| Edge | Land-bank in high-growth micro-markets; aggressive pricing |
| Risk | High leverage, cyclical demand, large work-in-progress (WIP) |
This is the “mass-market Maharaja” of Gurugram, betting on volume over ultra-luxury.
3️⃣ Five-Year Scorecard 📈
| Metric / FY | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | 5-yr CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presales | 242 | 82 | 901 | 1,554 | 1,241 | 2,498 | 60% |
| OPM % | –15% | –99% | –9% | 0% | –1% | 2% | – |
| PBT (₹ cr) | –74 | –97 | –136 | –57 | 4 | 105 | – |
| PAT (₹ cr) | –57 | –86 | –116 | –64 | 16 | 101 | – |
| RoCE % | –2% | –7% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 8% | – |
| RoE % | – | – | – | – | – | 15% | – |
| Net Debt ₹ cr | 981 | 1,186 | 1,170 | 1,724 | 1,933 | 849 | – |
| WC Days | 781 | 2,003 | 109 | 190 | 417 | 171 | – |
Narrative: After three years of deep red ink (FY20–22 losses), FY25 saw a ₹ 101 cr profit on booming presales—but only after piling on debt and stretching working capital to the brink.
4️⃣ The Brains Behind the Bricks 🧑💼
- Anuj Puri – Founder & Chairman, veteran real-estate dealmaker
- Ashish Kohli – MD & CEO, driving land acquisitions and sales strategy
- Sanjay Nahar – CFO, wrestling with ₹ 849 cr net debt and funding mix
These three are the “trinity” steering SignatureGlobal’s rapid expansion, but the debt load is their noose as much as their fuel.
5️⃣ Green Flags 🌱 vs Red Flags 🔥
✅ Green Flags
- Market Leader in affordable NCR housing by units
- Presales Growth: ₹ 1,241 cr → ₹ 2,498 cr in two years
- Debt Reduction: Net borrowings down ₹ 1,084 cr since FY24
- Profitability Achieved: First PAT in five years
🔥 Red Flags
- Sky-High Leverage: Net-debt/EBITDA > 8× (FY25)
- Working-Capital Strain: 171 days, funds stuck in WIP & receivables
- Thin Margins: Operating margin just 2% in FY25
- Valuation Mania: P/B at 24×, P/E at 173× vs peers at 2–4× and 40–60×
6️⃣ Peer Comparison 🏢
| Company | P/E | P/B | RoE % | RoCE % | WC Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SignatureGlobal | 173 | 24 | 15 | 8 | 171 |
| DLF | 46 | 2.1 | 11 | 7 | 150 |
| Macrotech (Lodha) | 54 | 3.3 | 16 | 16 | 120 |
| Godrej Properties | 53 | 3.5 | 8 | 7 | 200 |
| Median Realty Peers | 50 | 2.8 | 12 | 9 | 145 |
SignatureGlobal’s valuations tower over the pack—only half its peers ever saw P/B north of 10×.
7️⃣ Fair-Value (FV) Range Calculation 🧮
Using the P/B model:Justified P/B=RoE–gr–g\text{Justified P/B} = \frac{\text{RoE} – g}{r – g}Justified P/B=r–gRoE–g
- RoE: 14.9%
- Cost of equity (r): 14% (emerging‐market risk)
- Growth (g): Bear 6%, Base 8%, Bull 10%
- BV: ₹ 51.7
| Scenario | g | Justified P/B | FV (× BV ₹ 51.7) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6% | (14.9–6)/(14–6)=1.11 | ₹ 57 |
| Base | 8% | (14.9–8)/(14–8)=1.15 | ₹ 59 |
| Bull | 10% | (14.9–10)/(14–10)=1.225 | ₹ 63 |
Fair-Value Range: ₹ 57 – ₹ 63
At ₹ 1,243, SignatureGlobal is trading 1,900%+ above intrinsic math. That’s a skyscraping premium for houses in Gurugram.
🏁 EduInvesting Verdict
“SignatureGlobal’s presales rocket looks great on PowerPoint, but the debt avalanche and WIP clogging cash are red sirens. Unless you believe losses are ancient history and margins will bloom to 10%+, this ₹ 1,243 price is a land-bank fever dream—wait for the next correction before laying bricks in this one.”
Tags: SignatureGlobal, real estate, 5-year recap, NCR housing, fair-value, P/B valuation, EduInvesting
✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 22 June 2025
