🗞️ At a Glance
Plus SPAC deal 2025 just revved the autonomous-truck hype cycle again: California-based Plus Automation will merge with blank-cheque firm Velocity Mobility I at a pre-money valuation of $1.2 billion. The transaction promises a June-end Nasdaq debut, $350 million in fresh cash, and a second shot at taking on Aurora, TuSimple, and the death-by-regulation spectre haunting robo-rigs. But is Wall Street buying the comeback story—or merely underwriting another self-driving sequel?
1️⃣ About Plus Automation (Spoiler: It Didn’t Die, It Pivoted)
- Founded: 2016, Cupertino → Beijing shuttling founders
- Flagship Product: PlusDrive Level-4 stack that retrofit-installs onto Class-8 diesel tractors
- Fleet Test Miles: 18 million autonomous & supervised miles (company claim)
- Pivot Timeline: YearMilestoneReality Check2019Raised $200 m Series B (SoftBank Vision Fund)SoftBank later wrote down stake 22 % amid tech winter2021Announced SPAC with Hennessy Capital V ($3.3 b valuation)Collapsed—SEC cracked down on forward-revenue fantasies2023Shrunk China ops, doubled down on U.S. retrofitsAvoided U.S.-China chip export crossfire2024Signed pilot with Amazon Freight Partner (20 trucks)NDA-cloaked KPIs, but buzz rekindled2025Velocity Mobility SPAC v2.0Lower valuation, tighter projections
2️⃣ Deal Snapshot: The Fine Print Oil-Stained with Warrants
| 🔧 Term | 📜 Details | 🧐 Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | $1.2 bn (3.8× 2027E sales) | Cheaper vs 2021’s 17× fantasy multiple |
| PIPE | $150 m (BlackRock, Bridgewater, Saudi PIF sleeve) | Institutional vote of confidence… or exit liquidity? |
| Trust Cash | $200 m (pre-redemptions) | Redemption risk looms—SPACs averaged 80 % redemption in 2024 |
| Sponsor Promote | 20 % Class B shares, subject to $15 post-merger trading hurdle | Sponsor gets rich only if price pumps—meme fuel |
| Lock-up | 6-month for insiders, 1-year for founders | Reduces immediate day-1 supply glut |
| Projected Breakeven | 2028 EBITDA-positive at 4,000 retrofits | Skeptics call this “PowerPoint profitability” |
3️⃣ Autonomous Trucking 2025: Roadblocks & Runway
🔍 Regulatory Traffic Lights
- FMCSA Pilot Program: Allows up to 12 driverless rigs per OEM, data-share requirement = regulatory moat for early movers.
- California DMV Ban 2024: Still blocks autonomous heavy-duty >10,000 lbs—Plus must reroute testing to Texas, Arizona, and Florida.
- EU ADAS Mandates: Level-2 safety features compulsory by 2026—retrofit market tailwind.
⚙️ Tech & Chip Supply
- Lidar Prices down to $400 per unit (from $75k in 2018).
- Nvidia Drive Thor samples ship Q4 2025—Plus pre-ordered 5,000 boards (40% discount for early commit).
- Edge Cases: Mountain passes, black-ice detection, and rogue cattle still break neural nets; Plus claims new sensor fusion cuts disengagements 37 %.
4️⃣ Winners & Whiners: Wall Street Scorecard
| 😎 Potential Winners | 😩 Probable Whiners |
|---|---|
| Tier-1 Truck OEMs (Hino, PACCAR) → Licensing fees if PlusDrive passes FMVSS | TuSimple Orphans → Investors may bail to the next shiny lidar chart |
| Logistics ETFs hungry for AI tilt → new ticker flows | Teamsters Union → Lobbying headaches: job displacement narrative |
| LiDAR Suppliers (Ouster, Luminar) → bulk orders for retrofit kits | Legacy Telematics Firms (Omnitracs) → Safer robots = lower demand for driver safety cams |
| Diesel Refineries (?) → Self-driving doesn’t kill diesel, electrification does | Retail SPAC Bag-Holders → 6-month lock can’t save them from PIPE dump |
5️⃣ Show Me the Money: Plus’s “Reality-Based” Financial Model
| 📈 Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2027E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 35 | 120 | 315 | 1,050 |
| Gross Margin | 12 % | 22 % | 38 % | 44 % |
| EBITDA ($m) | −78 | −40 | 5 | 250 |
| Retrofits Shipped | 320 | 1,800 | 4,000 | 12,000 |
| Cash Burn | −95 | −60 | −15 | +80 |
(Take with Himalayan salt—every AV deck since 2016 boasted hockey sticks taller than Burj Khalifa.)
6️⃣ EduInvesting Street Talk 🚚
“SPACs are like autonomous trucks: 80 % of the journey is hype, 20 % is hoping no one pulls the emergency brake.”
- VC Burnout: SoftBank and Sequoia quietly shaving book values—SPAC exit offers face-saving liquidity.
- Retail FOMO: Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets eyeing cheap warrants; expect “$PLUS to the MOON (literally)” memes.
- Energy Angle: Diesel retrofits today, hydrogen next? Plus teasing a partnership with Nikola—cue comedian laughter track.
- Short-Seller Radar: Hindenburg already brewed coffee; any China-IP disputes or inflated disengagement logs will trigger a 20-page takedown.
7️⃣ Survival Kit: Questions Investors Must Grill on the Roadshow
- Edge-Case Data Transparency – Will Plus publish raw disengagement logs or cherry-picked KPIs?
- Insurance Economics – How many cents per mile do carriers actually save post-retrofit?
- Supply-Chain Risk – Can Nvidia allocations survive another geopolitics-driven chip crunch?
- Unit-Economics Timeline – Break-even at 4k retrofits sounds neat—what if FMCSA raises compliance costs?
- Litigation Reserve – Auto liability is a Hydra; one crash can vaporise that shiny PIPE.
(And remember, questions are free; managing positions after lock-up isn’t.)
8️⃣ EduInvesting Verdict 🤹🏽♂️
Plus Automation’s comeback SPAC is leaner, humbler, and priced like a Series C rather than a moon-shot. That’s good. But autonomous trucking remains the Bermuda Triangle of capital—maps look rosy until the vehicle enters real-world fog.
If you crave robo-rig exposure, this deal is marginally saner than the 2021 bubble vintage. Yet odds are you’ll still need HODL stomach acid stronger than diesel exhaust fluid. Bottom line: fun to trade, dangerous to marry—unless you like your portfolio idling at a truck stop during a Texas hailstorm.
📅 Author & Date
Prashant Marathe | 7 June 2025
🏷️ Tags
Plus SPAC Deal 2025, Self-Driving Trucks, Autonomous Vehicle IPO, Velocity Mobility SPAC, EduInvesting Satire
Meta Description (152 chars)
Plus Automation merges with Velocity Mobility in a $1.2 billion SPAC deal. Can self-driving trucks finally cash in, or is Wall Street fueling another hype ride?
