Author: Prashant Marathe
Date Published: May 21, 2025
🧾 At a Glance
- Total Income (Q4): ₹6,613.90 Cr
- Net Profit (Q4): ₹459.12 Cr
- EPS (Q4): ₹2.20
- CMP: ₹413
- EduFair Value: ₹345–₹390
👉 Verdict: Fantastic business, frothy valuation.
🏢 About the Company
Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL) is a Mini-Ratna PSU under the Ministry of Railways. They build:
- Tracks 🛤️
- Overhead electrification ⚡
- Bridges, tunnels, stations 🏗️
- Signaling & telecom networks 📶
Basically: if it moves on Indian Railways and isn’t a train — RVNL probably built it.
📊 FY25 Quarterly Summary
| Quarter | Revenue (₹ Cr) | PAT (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 4,326.33 | 217.81 | 1.05 |
| Q2 | 5,149.07 | 302.51 | 1.45 |
| Q3 | 4,874.32 | 294.99 | 1.41 |
| Q4 | 6,613.90 | 459.12 | 2.20 |
FY25 EPS (Total): ₹6.11
Net Profit FY25: ₹1,274 Cr+
Growth is real. Execution is smooth. Margins stable. What’s not to like?
🧠 EduInvesting Take
“RVNL is the PSU that makes L&T nervous — lean, fast, and on the ground.”
✅ 20%+ CAGR order book
✅ Zero drama
✅ Government funding = secure pipeline
✅ Can grow without equity dilution
So what’s the problem?
The stock has rallied over 400% since 2023.
🧮 EduFair Value Estimate
- EPS = ₹6.11
- Fair P/E = 55–65x (infra PSU re-rated post FY24–25 boom)
✅ EduFair Value = ₹345 – ₹390
CMP = ₹413 → slightly overvalued by 6–10%
You’re paying for perfection now.
⚠️ Risks
- 🚧 Overdependence on Railway capex cycle
- 🧾 Execution bottlenecks possible (esp. metro + hill states)
- 📉 PSU re-rating fatigue
- 🛑 No dividend spike = no yield buffer
💸 CMP vs Fair Value
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CMP | ₹413 |
| FY25 EPS | ₹6.11 |
| P/E at CMP | ~67x |
| EduFair Value | ₹345–₹390 |
| Risk Level | Medium 🔶 |
🏁 EduFinal Word
RVNL is:
- Profitable ✅
- High-growth ✅
- Well-run PSU ✅
- Overheated ❗
Edu Verdict:
Hold if you own it.
Avoid fresh entry unless it dips to ₹370–₹380.
