When BlackRock’s (BLK) $2.4 trillion money manager and Fed chair contender sketches out the market, you pay attention.
Rick Rieder is connecting the dots, outlining a market framework that’s built on converging macro and technical forces.
In doing so, he dropped one of the most shocking takes on the S&P 500 and the broader stock market.
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Rieder connects threads from corporate behavior to capital flows, which points to a market setup with far-reaching implications.
The intrigue doesn’t rest just on a single forecast, but in the potential for these market forces to influence investor decision-making with regard to risk, timing, and positioning across both stock and income markets in the upcoming quarters.
S&P 500 hits records as Fed cut odds rise
After a so-so start to 2025, the S&P 500 kicked into gear from mid-June through August 13.
A big part was a clean trifecta of factors, including softer inflation, strong earnings, and growing confidence in the Fed’s plan to cut interest rates.
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On June 12, the index closed at 6,045.26. By August 13, the S&P 500 jumped to a record 6,466.58, over a 400-point gain in just two months.
Some of the key catalysts of the recent surge include:
- Cooling-ish inflation: July CPI numbers increased just 3.1% YOY, mostly in line, while reinforcing expectations for a September rate cut.
- Fed policy odds: Futures markets had priced in a high probability of a 25 bps cut, with chatter of something even more substantial.
- Earnings beats: By Aug. 8, we had 81% of S&P 500 companies topping EPS estimates, the best performance since Q3 2023. Also, the market breadth was impressive with banks, cyclicals, and megacap tech all rallying together.
Adding more fuel to the fire, Bank of America recently reported the largest U.S. equity inflows in the past two years, signaling investors are still catching up to the rally.
Rick Rieder says this is the “most bullish investing environment ever”
BlackRock’s $2.4 trillion money manager, Rick Rieder, made one of the boldest macro calls of the year.
He feels we’re in the “most bullish investing environment ever,” effectively laying out a setup that benefits both the S&P 500 and income portfolios.
Rieder points to three key pillars supporting his bullish thesis.
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Firstly, he points to record corporate buybacks that continue steering the market into record territory.
For perspective, a recent WSJ report showed that $984 billion of buybacks have been announced year-to-date, and 2025 is on pace to top $1.1 trillion, blowing past previous records.
Second, roughly $7 trillion in cash is currently sitting on the sidelines, likely to reenter the market as yields drop.
Finally, the recent strength in earnings is another major factor: 81% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates this season, while Big Tech’s profits (excluding Tesla) surged more than 54% year over year.
On top of that, Rieder feels a 1% cut in interest rates is coming in September. That will naturally turbocharge the S&P 500 and fixed-income performance.
Moreover, he’s advising investors to stick to core fixed-income yielding 6.5%–7%, keeping risks to a minimum. He also believes it’s best to use low equity volatility to hedge cost-effectively, while barbelling quality growth stocks.
He’s also leaning into the long-term sustainable investing themes, including AI, data infrastructure, and even space. Productivity engines are likely to hum along nicely throughout the cycle.
Nonetheless, it’s imperative to consider the risks.
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Things like narrow leadership, sticky inflation, and trade tensions are still in play. However, Rieder believes the elements above comfortably outweigh those headwinds.
More importantly for investors, with Rieder’s name making the rounds in Fed chair discussions, his outlook could dictate future policy direction.
Rick Rieder’s Fed chair buzz just got louder
Reports suggest that BlackRock’s Rick Rieder is “in the running” to succeed Jerome Powell, a development likely to turn heads across Wall Street.
This comes as President Donald Trump intensifies his criticism of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s handling of interest rates, while exploring alternatives ahead of Powell’s term ending in May 2026.
Rieder, who oversees $2.4 trillion as CIO of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, brings years of experience and expertise to the table.
Given his background in money markets, he boasts a strong read on liquidity transmission, separating him from the traditional central-banker profiles. His potential nomination may be a boon for those looking for a market-centric, pro-liquidity policymaking at the Fed.
The move, though, is unlikely to come without a ton of controversy. Rieder’s links to Wall Street ties may spark debates around central-bank independence.
Whether Rieder’s name moves from speculation to short-list will have everything to do with the rate-cut path that unfolds later in the year.
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