Author: Prashant Marathe
Date Published: May 21, 2025
🧾 At a Glance
- Total Income (Q4): ₹1,738 Cr
- Net Profit (Q4): ₹88.56 Cr
- EPS (Q4): ₹5.82
- CMP: ₹250
- EduFair Value: ₹285–₹310
👉 Verdict: Not a rocket. But also not dead.
🏭 About the Company
ONGC – Oil and Natural Gas Corporation — India’s classic PSU energy elephant.
It:
- 🔍 Explores and produces oil & gas
- Owns subsidiaries like ONGC Videsh, HPCL, MRPL
- Feeds India’s energy needs with crude production and dividend payouts
It’s India’s oil ATM. Reliable, boring, and occasionally explosive (on budget day).
📊 Q4 FY25 Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹1,738 Cr |
| Net Profit | ₹88.56 Cr |
| EPS | ₹5.82 |
| PBT | ₹123.67 Cr |
Numbers aren’t mind-blowing — but still strong for a state-run producer in a soft crude price quarter.
🧠 EduInvesting Take
“ONGC will never trend on X. But it will pay you twice a year and never ghost you.”
✅ EPS steady
✅ Dividend yield decent
✅ Strategic positioning intact
❌ Valuation still frozen
❌ Crude price dependent
ONGC isn’t underpriced because it’s weak — it’s underpriced because it’s boring. And that’s usually bullish.
🧮 EduFair Value Estimate
- EPS FY25 = ~₹22–₹24 estimated (based on stable performance)
- Assign fair P/E of 12–13x for PSU energy giant
✅ EduFair Value = ₹285 – ₹310
CMP = ₹250 → Modest upside of 14–24%
⚠️ Risks
- 🛢️ Crude price crashes = profit squeeze
- 📉 Government dividend interference or price caps
- 💸 Capex burden from ONGC Videsh or HPCL
- 💤 Lack of investor love — especially from retail
💸 CMP vs Fair Value
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CMP | ₹250 |
| Estimated EPS | ₹22–₹24 |
| Fair P/E | 12–13 |
| EduFair Value | ₹285–₹310 |
| Upside Potential | 14–24% |
🏁 EduFinal Word
ONGC is:
- Consistent ✅
- Underrated ✅
- Cash-generating ✅
- Still boring ❗
Edu Verdict:
It won’t double next week. But it’ll pay your phone bill in dividends while you wait.
Hold. Or buy slow.
ONGC is the PSU you keep, not the one you flaunt.
