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KM Sugar Mills Ltd Q3 FY26: ₹169 Cr Revenue, ₹21 Cr PAT, 4.29 P/E — Sugar Stock or Sweet Trap?


1. At a Glance – Sweet Profits, Bitter Stock Price

₹25.5 per share. Market cap ₹237 Cr. P/E 4.29. Price to Book 0.65. ROE 11.2%. ROCE 11.2%. Debt just ₹67 Cr.

And yet… the stock is down 9% in 3 months and 17% in one year.

Latest Q3 FY26 numbers? Revenue ₹169 Cr. PAT ₹20.6 Cr. Profit up 62.9% YoY.

Yes, you read that correctly. A sugar company trading at 4x earnings with profit growth of 63% YoY.

It’s like walking into a sweet shop where everything is 70% off… and still no line outside.

The company crushed 9,500 tonnes per day of sugarcane, runs a 50 KLPD distillery, and generates 25 MW of power. It sells ethanol, sugar, and electricity. Basically, it monetises the entire sugarcane — nothing goes to waste except maybe investor enthusiasm.

So what’s going on here?

Is this a cyclical opportunity… or just another sugar high before the crash?

Let’s investigate.


2. Introduction – Welcome to Uttar Pradesh’s Sweet Factory

https://img1.wsimg.com/isteam/ip/2c59f76e-55b6-4f54-9db5-2eb5642db835/sugar-production-plant-c1856e0.jpg

Founded in 1971, KM Sugar Mills Ltd operates in three businesses:

  • Sugar manufacturing
  • Distillery (ethanol, rectified spirit, ENA)
  • Co-generation power using bagasse

Translation: They squeeze sugarcane until it cries, and then they monetise the tears.

Revenue mix FY23:

  • Sugar: 89%
  • Distillery: 9%
  • Co-generation: 2%

So this is still a classic sugar mill at heart. Ethanol is growing, but sugar remains the hero (and sometimes villain).

Now here’s the twist.

The company recently:

  • Completed ₹71.23 Cr capex for refinery modernization
  • Approved demerger of the Distillery Division into K M Spirits (Aug 2025)
  • Faced multiple accidents at Masodha factory
  • Had an erroneous promoter share transfer of 0.54% in Dec 2025

It’s been a dramatic year.

So is this a turnaround story? Or a sugar mill trying to act like an FMCG startup?

Let’s decode.


3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?

1) Sugar Division

Located in Faizabad with 9,500 TPD crushing capacity.

They produce:

  • L 31
  • M 31
  • M 30
  • S 31
  • S 30

If you don’t know what these grades mean, congratulations — neither do most investors.

They sell in jute bags and PP bags. Revenue mostly domestic, with exports when pricing permits.

2) Distillery Division

50 KLPD capacity producing:

  • Rectified Spirit
  • Fuel Grade Ethanol
  • ENA

85% of rectified spirit is Grade I quality.

This is important. Ethanol blending policy by the government gives revenue visibility.

And guess what? They are demerging this division. Why? Unlock value? Cleaner structure? Or accounting gymnastics? We’ll watch.

3) Power Division

25 MW bagasse-based plant:

  • 10 MW captive use
  • 15 MW sold to UPPCL
  • Tenure till March 2027

That’s predictable revenue. In sugar industry, predictability is rare.

So the business model is vertically integrated. They squeeze, distill, burn, and sell.

Question for you: If ethanol becomes bigger than sugar, does this become an ethanol play rather than a sugar stock?


4. Financials Overview – The Numbers Don’t Lie (Usually)

Q1 EPS = 1.43
Q2 EPS = 1.14
Q3 EPS = 2.24

Average = (1.43 + 1.14 + 2.24)/3 = 1.60
Annualised EPS = 1.60 × 4 = ₹6.40

Current Price = ₹25.5
Recalculated P/E = 25.5 / 6.40 = 3.98

Lower than reported 4.29. Even cheaper.

Quarterly Comparison Table (₹ Cr)

Source table
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