“Kalpataru’s ₹64,000 Cr Order Book Says ‘Chalo Kaam Pe’ — But Is the Stock Overbuilt?”

“Kalpataru’s ₹64,000 Cr Order Book Says ‘Chalo Kaam Pe’ — But Is the Stock Overbuilt?”

At a Glance
Kalpataru Projects International Ltd is a ₹19,813 Cr EPC powerhouse that’s grown revenues from ₹12,676 Cr in FY20 to ₹22,316 Cr in FY25 (12 % CAGR). Orders jumped to ₹64,495 Cr by June 2025, driving PAT up 45 % over five years. With ROCE steady at 16 % and a dividend yield of 0.78 %, its 5-year share CAGR of 40 % has left peers eating dust.


1. ⚡ Price Performance: A 40 % CAGR Powerhouse

  • 5-Year Share CAGR: 40 % (Mar 2020–Mar 2025)
  • Price Range: From ~₹300 in mid-2020 to ₹1,160 as of June 20, 2025
  • Volatility Check: 52-week band ₹770–1,449; 50 DMA sits near ₹1,190, signaling short-term resistance

TL;DR: Share price supercharged by strong order inflow—up 4x in 5 years.


2. 📈 Revenue & Profit Growth: Building Momentum

MetricFY20FY255-Yr CAGR
Sales₹12,676 Cr₹22,316 Cr12 %
Net Profit₹390 Cr₹567 Cr7.8 %
Order Book (Jun 2025)₹64,495 Crn/a
PAT (Jun 2025 AGM)₹648 Crn/a
  • Revenue: Steady 12 % CAGR as EPC projects in power transmission, pipelines, railways and biomass keep the conveyor belt rolling.
  • Profit: Slower, ~8 % CAGR, thanks to rising interest and forex pressures—but off a low base.
  • Order Book Surge: From ~₹56,000 Cr in FY24 to ₹64,495 Cr by June 2025, cushioning the next 2 years’ revenue.

3. 🔍 Margins & Returns: Healthy—but Eye the Headwinds

  • Operating Margin: Hovering ~9 % over last five years (9 % in Mar 2025)
  • ROCE: Solid 16 % (Mar 2025), up from 11 % in FY20
  • ROE: Modest 9.6 %, reflecting heavy capex in working capital

Pro Tip: EPC is cap-intensive—excessive receivables (128 days) are typical but need monitoring.


4. 🏗️ Segment Deep Dive: EPC Uninterrupted

  • EPC (97 % of revenues):
    • Power Transmission & Distribution: Flagship projects in India, Africa and South East Asia.
    • Oil & Gas Pipelines: Strategic wins with national oil companies.
    • Railways: Signalling and overhead electrification.
    • Biomass Power: Niche but growing, tying sustainability with growth.
  • Other Segments (3 %):
    • Operation & Maintenance, IDM Services—small but high-margin add-ons.

Insight: Diversification into biomass and rail offers a hedge against pure transmission cycles.


5. 🛡️ Balance Sheet & Shareholding: Stability vs. Dilution

  • Borrowings: ₹4,314 Cr in FY25 vs ₹2,731 Cr in FY20—up 58 %, driven by working capital.
  • Reserves: Swelled to ₹6,479 Cr from ₹2,068 Cr (FY20), cushioning debt.
  • Working Capital: Receivables at 128 days, inventory ~61 days, payable ~280 days ⇒ Cash conversion cycle of –92 days, a working-capital positive model.

Shareholding Trends

  • Promoters: Fell from 51.6 % (Jun 2020) → 33.5 % (Mar 2025)
  • FIIs: Rose from 5.4 % → 11.6 %
  • DIIs: Grew 36 % → 45 %
  • Public: ~10 %

Warning Lamp: Promoter dilution is steep—follow any follow-on offers or stake sales.


6. 💰 Valuation & Fair Value Range

  • Current P/E: 35.3x (CMP ₹1,160 / EPS ₹32.86 TTM)
  • Historical P/E Band (5-yr avg): ~20–30x
  • Fair Value Range:
    • Low-case: 25x EPS ⇒ ₹820
    • High-case: 30x EPS ⇒ ₹985

Verdict: Trading a ~18–30 % premium to fair value, justified by superior order book and ROCE uptick—but room to cool off if margins slip.


7. 🔮 Outlook & Key Managerial Personnel

  • Order Pipeline: ₹64,495 Cr as of June 2025 → revenue visibility for FY26–27
  • Capex Plans: Focus on digital project management and hybrid EPC-services model
  • Risks: Input-cost inflation, currency swings in overseas markets, political delays
  • Opportunities: Decarbonisation push, rail electrification spree, cross-border grid projects

KMP Highlights

  • MD & CEO: Mr. Nikhil Saraf, driving Asia-Africa expansion
  • CFO: Mr. Ashish Jain, architect of leaner working capital
  • COO: Ms. Aarti Khanna, overseeing tech adoption in project execution

Final Roast: Solid fundamentals, but you’re paying up for future growth—buckle up for a bumpy ride if commodity prices spike.


Bottom Line: Kalpataru Projects has powered spectacular growth, yet the premium valuation demands flawless execution. If you believe in 2025’s green grids and rail revamp, its order book provides a runway—else, wait for a dip closer to ₹900.

Tags: Kalpataru Projects, EPC, Infrastructure, 5-Year Recap, ROCE, Order Book, Fair Value

✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 June 22, 2025

Prashant Marathe

https://eduinvesting.in

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