1. At a Glance
Jupiter Wagons Ltd is riding the Make-in-India and Railways megatrend like it’s first class AC, but the Q1 FY26 earnings say otherwise: revenuedown 54% QoQ, PATdown 63%. That’s not a mild hiccup—that’s the train hitting an unscheduled station. Yet, the company sits at a ₹14,000 Cr market cap with 125% profit CAGR over five years, and over3.8 lakh shareholdersaboard. Welcome to India’s favorite “rail” stock—minus the punctuality.
2. Introduction – Engine Running Hot, But Wheels Slipping
What do you get when you cross manufacturing, metal fabrication, and India’s railway obsession? A market darling called Jupiter Wagons.
From FY20’s ₹126 Cr sales to FY25’s ₹3,871 Cr, this is a transformation story that every mutual fund manager wants in their PPT. Add to that the reverse merger of CEBBCO, a QIP, preferential allotments, and you’ve got a stock that ran from ₹50 to ₹588… before correcting 40% faster than a Rajdhani Express on steroids.
But Q1 FY26 results are sobering. Sales halved, profit crashed, and yet management says “everything is under control.” Maybe the engine’s fine—but the driver seems sleepy.
3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
Jupiter Wagons manufactures:
- Freight Rail Wagons
- Commercial Vehicle Load Bodies
- High-speed Brake Systems
- Passenger Coaches (new vertical)
- Defense Mobility Solutions
- Articulated and Specialized Wagons
With rail freight demand rising due to DFCCIL, Vande Bharat expansion, and containerization of goods, Jupiter positions itself as the Tata Motors of Indian Railways—except they build what’sbehindthe engine.
The company also entered thepassenger coach,metroanddefensesegments, with new facilities and tech collabs. Essentially, they’ve gone full “rail infra OEM,” hoping to be the L&T of the rolling stock world.
4. Financials Overview – This Train’s Got History
TTM Revenue: ₹3,387 CrTTM PAT: ₹317 CrEPS (FY25): ₹7.46P/E: 44.3xROE: 17.1%ROCE: 21.6%OPM: 14%
5Y Revenue CAGR: 98%5Y PAT CAGR: 125%
This isn’t a company—it’s a CAT topper in disguise. But Q1FY26 earnings show that the overachiever forgot to submit their homework this quarter. Sales crashed
to ₹411 Cr (from ₹1,000 Cr), PAT down to ₹33 Cr (from ₹97 Cr).
One quarter doesn’t break the story, but it rattles the tracks.
5. Valuation – Fair Value Range (P/E Brake Check)
Method 1: P/E Based
EPS (TTM): ₹7.46Industry P/E: 25–35x (adjusted for rail infra risk)→ FV Range = ₹187 – ₹261
Method 2: EV/EBITDA
TTM EBITDA: ₹470 CrEV/EBITDA range: 12–14x→ EV = ₹5,640 – ₹6,580 CrLess Net Debt (~₹200 Cr)→ Equity Value = ₹5,440 – ₹6,380 Cr→ FV per Share = ₹128 – ₹150
Method 3: DCF
Assume 20% growth for 5 years, terminal at 5%, discount rate 13%→ FV Range = ₹200 – ₹270
| Valuation Method | Fair Value Range (₹) |
|---|---|
| P/E | 187 – 261 |
| EV/EBITDA | 128 – 150 |
| DCF | 200 – 270 |
“This FV range is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.”
6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, and Railway Gossip
- Q1FY26: Revenue down to ₹410 Cr, PAT down to ₹33 Cr.
- Investor Presentation: Capex & expansion ongoing, “cyclical” slowdown blamed.
- Reclassification: Promoter Ms. Sagarika Gupta moved to Public category—watch this space.
- QIP + Pref Issue: ₹538 Cr raised in FY24 → likely used for capex & working capital.
- New Verticals: Passenger
