📌 At a Glance
Radico Khaitan, the OG behind Magic Moments vodka and 8PM whisky, has posted a 33% drop in FY25 net profit to ₹219 crore from ₹325 crore last year. Despite its brand muscle in India’s alco-bev space, the company has stumbled on margins and rising costs.
But here’s the kicker: revenue is still growing, and the stock is up 3x from COVID lows. So is this just a hangover… or a detox before a premium rebrand?
Let’s uncork the full picture. 🍾
🏢 About the Company
- Name: Radico Khaitan Ltd
- Founded: 1943 (as Rampur Distillery Company)
- Brands: 8PM Whisky, Magic Moments Vodka, Morpheus Brandy, Rampur Indian Single Malt
- Market: One of India’s top 5 spirits players with pan-India distribution and exports to 85+ countries
- Segment: Alcoholic beverages – IMFL (Indian Made Foreign Liquor)
👨💼 Key Managerial Personnel (KMP)
| Name | Position |
|---|---|
| Lalit Khaitan | Chairman & MD |
| Abhishek Khaitan | CEO & Joint MD |
| Amar Singh | Whole-Time Director |
| Sushmita Singha | Independent Director |
These aren’t just boardroom pegs — Lalit & Abhishek Khaitan are literal liquor royalty in India. 🍸
📊 Financials (FY25 Audited)
| Metric | FY25 (₹ Cr) | FY24 (₹ Cr) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from Operations | ₹3,720.06 | ₹3,232.83 | +15.1% |
| Total Income | ₹3,773.35 | ₹3,282.94 | +14.9% |
| EBITDA (estimated) | ₹541.25 | ₹507.41 | +6.7% |
| Profit Before Tax | ₹355.78 | ₹463.90 | -23.4% |
| Net Profit | ₹219.31 | ₹325.07 | -32.6% |
| EPS (Diluted) | ₹11.27 | ₹16.70 | -32.5% |
| Dividend Declared | ₹3.00/share | ₹3.00/share | No Change |
👀 TL;DR: Revenue up, profits down = Margin pressure hangover.
📈 Forward-Looking Fair Value (FV)
Let’s run a fair value calculation based on 3-year forward earnings estimates.
- EPS FY25: ₹11.27
- Assumed EPS CAGR: 15%
- FY28 EPS Projection: ₹17.30
- Forward P/E (conservative): 35x
- Fair Value by FY28: ₹17.30 × 35 = ₹605.50
- CMP (As of May 19, 2025): ₹1,179
🎯 Verdict: Overvalued by ~95% based on earnings power, unless it dramatically improves margins or volumes.
🚀 Estimated Growth & Industry Outlook
🔹 What’s Cooking?
- Premiumisation is real. Radico is betting big on Rampur single malt, a ₹10K+ bottle that’s winning global awards.
- Vodka’s coming-of-age in India, and Magic Moments still dominates the category.
- Radico’s own distilleries & bottling infra give it cost control vs peers who outsource.
🔹 Risks?
- Tax volatility: Liquor is a state subject. Regulatory bans or price hikes (ahem, Bihar) hurt badly.
- Raw material costs (molasses, grain, glass) continue to rise.
- Rural demand is not recession-proof anymore.
🔹 Industry Trends
| Category | Trend |
|---|---|
| Whisky | Stable, but crowded |
| Vodka | Urban growth engine |
| Brandy | Big in South, minor nationwide |
| Single Malts | Rising aspirational segment |
| RTDs/Craft | Yet to explode in India |
🧠 EduInvesting Take
“This is not a small-cap liquor story anymore. It’s a ‘how do we get premium multiples like Diageo’ story.”
Radico’s brand game is strong, distribution is deep, but profits are sobering. At 100x trailing P/E, investors are betting on a premiumisation miracle.
Would we drink to that at ₹1,179/share?
🥃 Only if the next quarter shows margin magic.
⚠️ Risks & Red Flags
- Working capital has been under pressure — expect slower cash cycles.
- Competition from global players (Pernod Ricard, Diageo) is fierce.
- High P/E valuation means even small disappointments can trigger a stock correction.
📌 Final Word
Radico Khaitan might be serving up fancier cocktails — but right now, its P&L sheet is still stuck with a whisky hangover.
Invest if you believe in the India Premium Liquor Dream.
Else? Enjoy the drink. Not the stock.
Tags: Radico Khaitan FY25 Results, Radico Profit Fall, Radico Share Price, Liquor Stocks India, IMFL Companies, Premium Indian Whisky, EduInvesting, NSE:BSE Updates, EPS 2025 Radico, Dividend Radico 2025, Magic Moments Vodka, Rampur Single Malt
