1. At a Glance
Dhampur Bio Organics (DBOL) just lost 9% in a day and is trading at ₹80.4 – barely half its book value. Q1 FY26 shows losses, margins are evaporating, and investors are wondering if the ethanol fairy-tale ended early. The stock screams cheap, but is it a trap or an opportunity?
2. Introduction
Imagine a sugar mill trying to moonwalk while stuck in molasses. DBOL, spun off in 2022, rode the ethanol hype but now faces margin compression, debt swelling, and operational hiccups. FY25 profit fell to ₹15 Cr, and Q1 FY26 net loss was ₹22 Cr. Investors? Bitter, not sweet.
3. Business Model (WTF Do They Even Do?)
- Core: Integrated sugarcane processor – makes refined/raw sugar, ethanol, chemicals, and co-gen power.
- Bioenergy Play: Ethanol blending program adds upside but is volatile.
- Agri-link: Dependent on cane cycles and government whims.
Essentially, a sugar-energy hybrid trying to stay relevant.
4. Financials Overview
- FY25 Revenue: ₹1,862 Cr (flat YoY)
- EBITDA: ₹135 Cr (down)
- PAT: ₹15 Cr (down from ₹46 Cr FY24)
- Q1 FY26: Sales ₹526 Cr, Net Loss ₹22 Cr
Verdict: Numbers are melting faster than jaggery in monsoon.
5. Valuation (Fair Value Range Only)
- P/E Method: EPS is negative (TTM -₹1.11), so P/E is useless.
- PB Method: Book Value ₹152, stock at 0.5× BV → fair value ₹70–₹110 assuming a turnaround.
Cheeky Note: Market values it like a zombie, not a growth engine.
6. What-If Scenarios
| Scenario | FY26 Revenue | PAT | FV Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | ₹2,000 Cr | ₹40 Cr | ₹120–₹140 |
| Base | ₹1,900 Cr | ₹10 Cr | ₹80–₹100 |
| Bearish | ₹1,700 Cr | Loss | ₹50–₹70 |
7. What’s Cooking (SWOT Analysis)
Strengths: Integrated model, ethanol upside, strong cane belt presence.
Weaknesses: Low ROE (1.5%), high debt, volatile margins.
Opportunities: Bioenergy boom, policy push for ethanol.
Threats: Cane pricing, subsidy cuts, and global sugar price swings.
8. Balance Sheet 💰
| FY25 (₹ Cr) | Amount |
|---|---|
| Assets | 2,398 |
| Borrowings | 1,162 |
| Reserves | 945 |
| Net Worth | ~1,011 |
Comment: Debt-to-equity ~1.1× – leverage is creeping.
9. Cash Flow (FY23–FY25)
| Year | CFO | CFI | CFF | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | 368 | –209 | –78 | 81 |
| FY24 | –101 | –166 | 170 | –98 |
| FY25 | 130 | –145 | 19 | 3 |
Punchline: Operating cash is positive, but growth eats it up.
10. Ratios – Sexy or Stressy?
| Metric | FY25 |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6% |
| ROCE | 4% |
| P/E | 33× |
| D/E | 1.1× |
| OPM | 7% |
Punchline: Returns dull, debt heavy.
11. P&L Breakdown – Show Me the Money
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA% | PAT |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | ₹2,408 Cr | 8% | ₹111 Cr |
| FY24 | ₹1,864 Cr | 8% | ₹46 Cr |
| FY25 | ₹1,862 Cr | 7% | ₹15 Cr |
Comment: Topline stagnant, bottom line falling.
12. Peer Comparison
| Company | Rev (Cr) | PAT (Cr) | P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balrampur | 5,415 | 437 | 27× |
| Triveni Engg | 5,689 | 238 | 33× |
| DBOL | 1,920 | -7 | 33× |
Comment: DBOL is the underdog with no bite.
13. EduInvesting Verdict™
Dhampur Bio Organics is cheap on PB but expensive on earnings because profits have gone missing. Ethanol and policy can rescue it, but risks remain high.
Verdict: “Not dead, not alive – more like a cane zombie waiting for the next ethanol pump.”
Written by EduInvesting Team | 28 July 2025
Tags: Dhampur Bio Organics, Sugar Sector, Ethanol Play, EduInvesting Premium
