🔍 At a Glance
Over FY21 to FY25, Cupid Ltd increased its revenue from ₹133 Cr to ₹203 Cr — a modest 52% growth. Net profit climbed from ₹17 Cr to ₹41 Cr, and EPS more than doubled. Sounds like a safe story, right? But hold on — the stock trades at 66x earnings, 370 working capital days, 40.5% promoter pledge, and negative cash flow despite profits. Is Cupid still a high-margin growth play? Or is it a risky fling disguised as protection?
🏢 About the Company
Cupid Ltd, incorporated in 1993, operates in a space nobody wants to talk about but everybody needs:
- 💥 Male and female condoms
- 💧 Water-based lubricants
- 🔬 Diagnostic kits — HIV, dengue, malaria, pregnancy, Covid
The company exports heavily to Africa, Latin America, and Asia, often fulfilling tenders from WHO, UNFPA, and government agencies. It’s a cash cow in bursts, but the order book is lumpy, the execution cycle is slow, and payments can take forever.
👨💼 Key Managerial Personnel (KMP)
| Name | Role |
|---|---|
| Omprakash Garg | Chairman & MD |
| Nilesh Dungarwal | CFO |
| Vinita Garg | Executive Director |
| Dr. Anil Nayak | Independent Director |
While the promoter group has delivered consistent profits, the high pledge of shares (40.5%) raises some spicy questions — not in a good way.
📊 5-Year Financial Recap (FY21–FY25)
| ₹ in Crores | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | Growth (FY21–25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 133 | 159 | 171 | 203 | 203 | +52% |
| Net Profit | 17 | 32 | 40 | 40 | 41 | +141% |
| EPS (₹) | 0.65 | 1.18 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.52 | 2.3x |
| OPM % | 17% | 26% | 29% | 30% | 30% | ↑ |
| ROCE % | 28% | 17% | 26% | 22% | 17% | 👎 Declining |
| Cash from Ops | 42 | 10 | 33 | 8 | -11 | ↓ Sharp drop |
| Dividend Payout | 21% | 35% | 21% | 0% | 0% | Gone. |
👀 On paper, this is good. But the cash flow and working capital situation? Definitely not lubricated.
📈 Stock Performance Recap
- 5-Year Stock CAGR: 63%
- 3-Year CAGR: 109%
- 1-Year Return: 6%
- High/Low (52W): ₹114 / ₹50
The stock’s past return looks like a multibagger. But earnings haven’t kept up. It was a re-rating, not a revenue revolution.
⚖️ Valuation Zone
- FY25 EPS: ₹1.52
- CMP: ₹101
- P/E: 66.6x
- Fair Value Range (25–35x): ₹38–₹53
At ₹101, you’re paying for future fantasy, not fundamentals. For a tender-dependent smallcap with negative cash flow? It’s risky romance.
🧪 Business Model Risks
- 🎯 B2G model — Cupid relies on government or intergovernmental contracts
- ⌛ Slow payments — 120 debtor days, 370 working capital days
- ⚙️ No recurring D2C scale — they aren’t competing with Durex or Manforce
- 🤐 Pledged shares — 40.5% promoter stake is pledged
- 💸 No dividend — despite 5 years of consistent profit
The conclusion? Cupid is profitable, but not necessarily investible at these valuations.
📉 FY25 Highlights (Q4 Focus)
| Quarter | Revenue (₹ Cr) | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | OPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | ₹44 | ₹8 | 26% |
| Q2 FY25 | ₹47 | ₹10 | 34% |
| Q3 FY25 | ₹51 | ₹11 | 31% |
| Q4 FY25 | ₹61 | ₹12 | 30% |
Revenue is recovering post-Covid, yes — but growth is lumpy, not linear.
📦 Balance Sheet Highlights
| Item | FY25 (₹ Cr) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 27 | Small-cap base |
| Reserves | 315 | Strong retained earnings |
| Borrowings | 19 | Reasonable leverage |
| Fixed Assets + CWIP | 73 | Steady expansion |
| Investments | 103 | Strategic or liquidity buffer? |
| Net Cash Flow | +₹32 Cr | From investing, not ops |
| Operating Cash Flow | -₹11 Cr | ⚠️ Red flag |
| Debtor Days | 120 | Payment delays |
| Working Capital Days | 370 | Danger zone |
When your working capital is a full year… you’re not in FMCG. You’re in finance.
🧠 EduInvesting Take
Cupid’s product saves lives.
But the stock may need saving soon if these trends continue.
- 📈 Revenue growth: Steady
- 💰 Profits: Good
- 💦 Cash: Not flowing
- ⚠️ Valuation: Unrealistic
- 🔒 Promoter pledge: Stressful
- 📉 Dividend: Missing
This is the kind of stock where you stay invested for the heart, not the brain.
But in finance, that’s how you get… heartbroken.
🎯 Final Verdict
Cupid Ltd’s 5-year story is part love story, part cautionary tale.
Yes, it built a ₹203 Cr revenue business with 30% OPM.
But now, the cash is drying up, the valuation is stretched, and the stock is priced like it’s selling hope.
Cupid may protect millions.
But whether it can protect your capital at 66x P/E? That’s a gamble you should only take… with protection.
Author: Prashant Marathe
Date: 11 June 2025
Tags: Cupid share price, Cupid 5-year recap, SME stocks India, FMCG diagnostics, personal care stocks, India condom company, B2G smallcaps, working capital stress, promoter pledge red flags
