Opening Hook
In May, Australian Premium Solar (APS) came to the concall like a cricketer promising a triple century – 75% CAGR, new capacities, and solar cells that would make China nervous. They said they were ready to conquer retail, dominate pumps, and flirt with exports. Investors left the call dreaming of free solar panels with every packet of chips.
Cut to July. APS is back with Q1 FY26 numbers and – surprise – they didn’t just talk big, they almost delivered. Revenue doubled YoY, margins held steady, and their solar pump business is now pumping not just water, but cash flows. However, amid all the sunshine, there are clouds: capex debt is coming, retail growth was intentionally paused, and export dreams are still in the “WhatsApp group planning” stage.
Time to filter out the doodh (facts) from the pani (corporate poetry) – and see if APS walked the talk or just walked around it.
At a Glance – May vs July
- Revenue:
- May (FY25): ₹438.9 Cr – “Tripled turnover, margins soaring.”
- July (Q1 FY26): ₹153.2 Cr – “Doubled YoY, flat QoQ, CFO sweating a little.”
- Margins:
- May: EBITDA 13.3%, PAT margin 9% – “Healthy, thanks to volume and price mix.”
- July: EBITDA 13.9%, PAT margin 9.6% – “Holding firm despite expansion stress.”
- Capacity:
- May: 600 MW running, 400 MW Topcon coming by August.
- July: Still 600 MW, Topcon commissioning delayed to October – “Patience, my dear investors.”
- Guidance:
- May: “75% CAGR, 900,000 panels, cell plant in 18-24 months.”
- July: “Still 75% CAGR, but capex debt is knocking.”
- Stock:
- May: Retail investors clapped, HNIs queued up.
- July: At ₹583, stock held strong but waiting for the Topcon magic.
The Story So Far – May’s Big Promises
In May, APS strutted into the investor call with swagger. They claimed:
- Panel Production: 270,000 panels (150 MW) in FY25, targeting 900,000 panels (400-450 MW) for FY26.
- Capex Plans: ₹150 Cr for FY26, ₹850 Cr for FY27, and a ₹1,000 Cr solar cell plant – with subsidies as the cherry on top.
- CAGR Guidance: A mouth-watering 75% for two years.
- Pump Segment: Expected to balloon, powered by government schemes.
- Debt & Funding: To be managed through a mix of internal accruals, loans, and equity – all while staying “debt-light.”
- Exports: “Not now, but soon. Certification pending, USA waiting.”
- Risks: Solar cell supply shortages, DCR limitations, and cash flow stress from government tender cycles.
Investors loved the clarity, the ambition, and the Gujarati confidence. But as every seasoned investor knows, concall promises often age like milk. By July, APS had to show if this doodh was pure or skimmed. Spoiler: they delivered numbers, but the road to 75% CAGR is still under construction.
Management Commentary Evolution – Doodh vs Pani
| Theme | May Statement (Pani) | July Statement (Doodh or Pani?) | Sarcastic Translation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | “Tripled turnover, we expect 75% CAGR to continue.” | “Revenue doubled YoY, flat QoQ. Pumps & wholesale did the heavy lifting.” | Doodh – Growth is real, but not a straight line. |
| Retail Segment | “Retail expansion will drive growth.” | “Retail growth paused intentionally due to DCR cell shortage.” | Pani – Paused because they couldn’t source enough milk. |
| Capex Plans | “₹150 Cr this year, ₹850 Cr next year, solar cells to start by FY27.” | “Topcon commissioning delayed to October, but capex plans intact.” | Doodh – Delay is small, roadmap is intact. |
| Debt & Funding | “Low debt, fundraising only when needed.” | “Still net debt-free, but capex debt coming soon.” | Doodh – Honest about incoming leverage. |
| Pump Business | “Government tenders and margins strong, 300 Cr orders.” | “Pumps contributed ₹43.6 Cr this quarter, targeting 30% revenue share by FY26.” | Doodh – Pumps are indeed pumping profits. |
| Exports | “USA market is on radar, waiting for Topcon line and certification.” | “Export plan still preliminary, certificates will be applied post Topcon commissioning.” | Pani – Exports still in dream phase. |
| Solar Cell Plant | “18-24 months to start production.” | “Timeline unchanged, groundwork continues.” | Doodh – At least no flip-flop here. |
APS management has maintained consistency. Where May was full of promises, July backed it with numbers – except retail, which stayed stuck in neutral.
Numbers Face-Off – Facts Speak Louder
| Metric | May Concall (FY25) | July Concall (Q1 FY26) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue – The Hero | ₹438.9 Cr (FY25) | ₹153.2 Cr | Doodh – Growth intact, but watch QoQ stagnation. |
| EBITDA – The Sidekick | ₹58.8 Cr (13.3%) | ₹21.3 Cr (13.9%) | Doodh – Margins stable despite expansion. |
| PAT – The Bottom Line | ₹39.8 Cr (9.0%) | ₹14.7 Cr (9.6%) | Doodh – Profitability improving. |
| Capacity – The Muscle | 600 MW running | 600 MW (Topcon delayed) | Pani – Delay takes some shine off. |
| Debt – The Villain | Almost nil | Still nil, but villains assembling | Doodh – Transparency wins. |
Analyst Questions – Who Exposed the Truth?
In May, analysts grilled APS on volumes, debt, and capex. APS answered with confidence, admitting to a heavy debt cycle ahead but promising to emerge debt-free by FY28.
In July, there were no verbal sparring sessions, but the numbers spoke. Retail stagnation, export delays, and Topcon commissioning slips could have been analyst landmines – but management calmly addressed them in the presentation.
Key takeaways:
- Agastya Dave’s May grilling on production led APS to share 270,000 panels produced in FY25.
- Debt anxiety remains, but APS is proactive in communicating its funding plan.
- Exports are still a no-show; analysts will likely press again in Q2.
No shocking revelations, but APS’s candidness has kept analysts on their side – for now.
Guidance – Promises vs Delivery
- May Promise: 75% CAGR for two years, 900,000 panels in FY26, and a solar cell plant by FY27.
- July Reality: Revenue doubled YoY, margins stable, pump business gaining share. However, QoQ stagnation raises eyebrows.
APS reiterated its 75% CAGR, but the Q1 run rate suggests they need ₹200 Cr+ revenue per quarter to hit the target. With Topcon commissioning delayed to October, H2 must carry the load.
Solar cell plant remains on schedule, but execution risk is high given the ₹1,000 Cr+ capex. Exports, though frequently mentioned, remain a 2026 story.
Verdict: Promises are alive, but delivery pressure is building.
Risks & Red Flags – Filtered Out
- Topcon Delay: Slippage to October is minor, but delays in solar are like dominos.
- Debt Overhang: Net debt-free now, but FY27 debt spike is inevitable.
- Retail Weakness: DCR supply constraints hurt retail, but management calls it temporary.
- Export Fantasy: Still in planning; no timelines mean uncertainty.
- Policy Dependence: Heavy reliance on government tenders and subsidies – a policy tweak could spoil the party.
Red flags are manageable, but investors should keep a close eye on H2 execution.
Market Mood – Investor Reaction Filtered
Post-May, APS stock rallied as investors loved the growth story. After July, the stock at ₹583 shows confidence, but cautious optimism. Traders expected fireworks; instead, they got a steady candle.
Meme mood:
- May: “APS to the moon 🌙 – retail investors flexing.”
- July: “Still holding, but wake me up when Topcon arrives.”
Institutional investors like the clarity, but they’ll wait to see if Q2 revenues break the ₹200 Cr barrier.
EduInvesting Take – Doodh ka Doodh Verdict
APS is a rare small-cap that talks big and mostly walks the talk. The May promises weren’t just marketing fluff – revenue and margins prove that. The pump segment is booming, wholesale is strong, and retail will bounce once DCR supply eases.
However, the July call exposed three weak spots:
- QoQ flat revenue – execution speed must improve.
- Topcon delay – small but watch if it slips further.
- Export story – still just that, a story.
Pure milk:
- Revenue doubled YoY.
- Margins stable, profitability improving.
- Solar cell plant groundwork progressing.
Just water:
- Retail growth excuses.
- Export hype without substance.
Verdict: APS has served investors a glass of milk with only a splash of water. If Q2 delivers, this stock could shine brighter than a rooftop at noon.
Conclusion – The Final Pour (100 words)
In May, APS promised investors a solar-powered Ferrari. In July, they showed up with a well-tuned SUV – not flashy, but dependable. Revenue growth, margin control, and pump expansion prove there’s plenty of doodh in the mix.
Yet, the road to 75% CAGR is steep, and any further delays could water down the story.
For now, APS is a stock to watch, not just own blindly. By October, when Topcon lights up, we’ll know if this glass is full of pure milk or just frothy bubbles.
Written by EduInvesting Team
Data sourced from: APS concall transcripts (May & July 2025), investor presentations, and filings.
SEO Tags: Australian Premium Solar, APS Q1 FY26, APS Concall Comparison, Solar Stocks India
