⚡ At a Glance:

Alpex Solar Ltd has gone from being a sleepy solar EPC player in North India to ramming a ₹780 crore-sized solar panel straight into Dalal Street’s face. Over FY21 to FY25:

• 🔼 Revenue grew 5.2x from ₹149 Cr to ₹780 Cr
• 💥 Net Profit jumped 27x from ₹3 Cr to ₹83 Cr
• 📈 OPM more than doubled from 6% to 16%
• 💪 ROCE now stands at 51.8%, putting some PSUs to shame
• 🧾 Reserves have grown 6x; company doubled down on expansion with ₹79 Cr debt

Now let’s break it down, Edu style 🔍

1. ☀️ About Alpex Solar Ltd

Alpex Solar Ltd, incorporated in 2008, is North India’s largest PV module manufacturer and an integrated solar energy player. They make:

• 🪟 Solar panels (PV modules)
• 🛠️ EPC Solar Projects
• 🚿 Solar-powered water pumps
• 💡 AC/DC hybrid water pumps
• 🧪 Aluminium frames and even GH2 (green hydrogen) components
• 🧶 BONUS: They weirdly also trade in yarn, air purifiers, and circular knitting needles (because why not?)

Basically, they manufacture sunshine, sell it, and then use it to run pumps, purifiers, and maybe your washing machine too.

2. 🧑‍💼 Key Managerial Personnel

• CEO: A.K. Goel – low profile, but delivers high voltage numbers
• CFO (New): Udaya Sehgal (joined June 2025) replacing Amit Ghai — big shoes to fill, literally and figuratively, given FY25’s profit explosion
• Chairman: Strategic silence specialist – letting results speak louder than concalls

3. 📊 Financials: 5-Year Performance

💡 Highlights:

• Revenue CAGR: 51%
• Profit CAGR: 94% (That’s not a typo)
• FY25 Net Profit Margin = 10.6%
• OPM doubled from 6% to 16%
• Reserves grew from ₹31 Cr to ₹192 Cr in 5 years

4. 🔍 Forward-Looking Fair Value (FV) Estimate

Assuming:

• FY26E Revenue: ₹1,100 Cr
• Net Profit Margin: 10%
• EPS (based on equity of ₹24 Cr): ~₹46
• P/E Multiple for solar EPC + manufacturing = ~30x (conservative given Waaree is at 43x)

🧮 FV Range = ₹1,200 – ₹1,400 per share

📍CMP = ₹985 (as of June 6, 2025)

5. 🚀 Growth Outlook & Expansion Plans

Alpex isn’t just riding the solar wave — it’s building a dam with a solar-powered surfboard. Here’s what’s cooking:

• 🧱 ₹642 Cr CapEx underway for:
  • 2.4 GW PV module capacity
  • 1.6 GW solar cell line
• 🛠️ Massive EPC orders in the bag worth ₹758 Cr+
• 💼 Key clients: Coal India, government schemes, rural electrification programs
• 🏆 Recently secured CRISIL BBB- rating — so still junk, but shiny junk
• 📦 Inventory and working capital cycles are tightening — cash conversion down to 53 days

6. 🧠 EduInvesting Take

Let’s call it what it is:

“A Smallcap with a Dhoni Mindset — quietly compounding, calmly expanding, and then boom 💣 ₹83 Cr PAT.”

From ₹3 Cr to ₹83 Cr in 5 years with a CapEx pipeline that looks like NTPC in its startup days, Alpex Solar is silently preparing to compete with Waaree, Websol, and even Premier.

Yes, it trades at 11x book — but when you double earnings every 12 months, books are for bedtime, not valuation.

This stock isn’t consolidating. It’s charging up.

7. ⚠️ Risks & Red Flags

• ❌ No dividend yet. Zero payout, despite profits.
• 🧾 SME-listed: Liquidity can vanish faster than a subsidy scheme
• 📉 Sharp increase in debt in FY25 (₹79 Cr from ₹36 Cr) – needs watching
• 🧪 CapEx execution is everything — delays can zap the margins
• 🧺 Still engaged in odd trades like air purifiers & yarn — business focus needed

📦 Final Verdict?

Alpex Solar is one of those rare Indian SME stories where the financials, the market opportunity, and the execution all align.
From ₹149 Cr to ₹780 Cr in revenue… from ₹3 Cr to ₹83 Cr in profit… and still expanding.

Solar companies might shine briefly. But Alpex? It’s starting to burn bright.

Author: Prashant Marathe
Date: June 8, 2025
Tags: Alpex Solar, Solar Stocks India, SME Multibagger, Renewable Energy, CapEx Stocks, EduInvesting Recap Series, FY25 Earnings, Clean Energy India