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We’re a financial content platform — not SEBI-registered investment advisors. This research is for educational and informational purposes only.

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📄 Page 1: Why This Stock?

Alpex Solar ☀️ — From Contract Manufacturer to Green Hydrogen Hero?

Most solar stocks are already sitting on P/E ratios hotter than the Rajasthan sun.
But Alpex? Still under the radar. Still scaling. Still hungry. But who thought we can print money from the sun?

Here’s the thesis 👇

🔍 1. Solar’s Mini-Tata in the Making

• Alpex started off as a humble solar panel contract manufacturer for brands like Tata Power, Luminous, Jakson.
• Now? It’s going D2C + EPC + B2G + Green Hydrogen.
• They’ve shipped over 10,000 solar water pumps, bagged large state tenders (Jharkhand, Haryana), and are scaling with subsidiaries in hydrogen and EPC.

🔋 2. From 850 MW to 2.4 GW — That’s Not a Typo

• Existing solar module capacity: 850 MW
• By FY26: Target capacity = 2.4 GW (including new 7-acre Mathura plant)
• This is nearly 3x scale-up, self-funded via IPO + internal accruals.
• They’re building for the future, while most peers are still waiting for the PLI cheque.

💸 3. Financials That Actually Charge

📊 Alpex Solar – Key Financials (FY23–FY25)

🧩 4. Backward Integration = Margin Weapon

• Alpex is now making aluminium frames and junction boxes in-house.
• These aren’t minor accessories — they’re 10–12% of BoM costs.
• By bringing them in-house, Alpex expects ~10% cost savings, better supply chain control, and faster deliveries.

🌱 5. Green Hydrogen + Solar Pumps = Tailwinds Galore

• Formed Alpex GH2 Pvt Ltd to ride the hydrogen wave
• Focused play on solar-powered irrigation and state-backed EPC tenders
• Strong government tailwinds: India aims for 300 GW of solar by 2030
• Approved vendor to biggies like NTPC, NHDC, CREDA, PEDA

🚩 So What’s the Catch?

• Trades at 23.9x FY24 EPS — not cheap, but justifiable if growth continues
• Execution risk on new capacity
• Still early in D2C/brand building journey

✅ Why This Stock Deserves coverage

Alpex checks all the EduPremium boxes:

• ✅ Sectoral tailwinds
• ✅ Undiscovered by most retail
• ✅ Hyper-growth mode with margin lift
• ✅ Skin in the game (68.76% promoter holding)
• ✅ Real cash flows, real capex, no nonsense

“FY25 paints a breakout picture — triple-digit revenue growth, PAT exploding nearly 20x in two years, and ROCE scaling past 50%. This isn’t hype. It’s execution.”

📄 Page 2: TL;DR Thesis + EduFair Valuation (2 Methods)

🎯 TL;DR Snapshot: Alpex Solar at a Glance

🧠 Method 1: EduFair™ P/E Valuation

📊 Step-by-Step:

• EPS FY25: ₹34.11
• P/E Range: 25x (conservative) to 30x (bullish)
• Fair Value:
  • ✅ Base Case: ₹34.11 × 25 = ₹853
  • ✅ Bull Case: ₹34.11 × 30 = ₹1,023

🔎 Justification: Sectoral median P/E is 44x — we remain conservative due to working capital intensity and early-stage EPC volatility.

🎯 EduFair™ Valuation Range: ₹850 – ₹1,020

🧮 Method 2: CashFlowLite™ DCF

Let’s model future Free Cash Flow (FCF) with the following assumptions:

📉 DCF Valuation (simplified):
Using standard DCF formula (NPV of 5 years + terminal value)

• Estimated DCF value ≈ ₹2,450 Cr
• Per Share Value (DCF) = ₹2,450 Cr / 2.44 Cr shares = ₹1,004

🎯 CashFlowLite™ Valuation: ₹950 – ₹1,050 range

✅ Verdict:

📌 EduPremium Fair Value Consensus Range:

₹875 – ₹1,025 ✅

Stock at ₹999 is now fully valued on FY25. Future upside hinges on margin expansion, exports, and Green H2 execution.

📄 Page 3: Business Breakdown – What Does Alpex Actually Do?

Alpex Solar isn’t your rooftop solar uncle’s company. It’s an integrated B2B solar machine that manufactures, assembles, sells, and even installs — across multiple verticals.

Let’s decode the solar chakravyuh 👇

🔧 1. Solar PV Module Manufacturing (Core Biz)

• Alpex builds monocrystalline, polycrystalline, bifacial, Mono PERC, and half-cut panels.
• Product lines include:
  • Nikko Topcon MBB (N-Type bifacial 560–590W)
  • Nikko MBB Series (Mono PERC 440–555W)
  • Diamond Series (Crystalline 150–400W)
• Operates via:
  • Contract manufacturing (Tata Power, Jakson, Luminous)
  • Own-brand supply (to EPC players like Solarworld, BVG India)

✅ Revenue driver, high-volume, low-margin
🚀 Margin kicker will come from backward integration

💧 2. Solar Water Pumps (AC/DC)

• Installed 15,000+ pumps across India
• Offers both Surface and Submersible categories
• Focused on State tenders (B2G) — recent wins include:
  • ₹12 Cr order from Jharkhand
  • ₹44 Cr order from Haryana

🤝 Subsidiary set up specifically to scale this vertical
📈 High-volume biz with potential for branding and annuity EPC deals

🏗️ 3. EPC Projects (Engineering, Procurement, Construction)

• End-to-end execution for solar water pumping + solar power plants
• Focused on North Indian state agencies — CREDA, HAREDA, NHDC
• Entry barrier: Tender qualification, local execution bandwidth

⚠️ EPC = lumpy revenues + execution risk
✅ But they already have past tender experience and installed base

🏗️ 4. Backward Integration Products

• Aluminium Frames:
  • Protect and mount panels
  • High input cost component, now being made in-house
• Junction Boxes:
  • Electrical connection hub behind every panel
  • In-house = better supply chain control + 10% cost saving

🎯 Margin expansion is the big story here
This turns Alpex from “assembler” to “integrator”

🧪 5. New Bet: Green Hydrogen (Alpex GH2 Pvt Ltd)

• Subsidiary launched for Green H2 push
• No major orders yet, but aligns with govt’s ₹20,000 Cr National Green Hydrogen Mission
• Long shot bet, but may attract attention if policy picks up

🚨 Early-stage, don’t price it into the core thesis yet
🌱 Optionality with real upside

🌍 6. Legacy + Miscellaneous Trades

• Also trades in:
  • Air purifiers, circular knitting needles, yarn
  • (Yes, you read that right. Very SME.)
• Likely legacy verticals or channel margin fillers
• Not material to core story, but worth keeping an eye on if expanded

🧠 Summary:

📦 Alpex isn’t just “making panels.”
They’re going full-stack solar — and stacking the odds in their favour.

📄 Page 4: Financial Trends – 5-Year Revenue, Margin & Return Trajectory

From underdog to overachiever — Alpex Solar’s financials look like a J-curve printed on steroids.

Let’s break it down by the numbers 👇

📈 1. Revenue Growth:

🔥 Revenue CAGR (FY21–FY25): 49%
Alpex doubled sales last year and is set to nearly double again. That’s not compounding. That’s combustion.

💸 2. EBITDA Growth & Margin Expansion

📊 Margin expansion powered by:

• Operating leverage
• In-house aluminium frames & junction boxes
• Reduction in raw material dependence

🧠 3. Profit Explosion

💥 Net profit grew 20x in 2 years
From almost breakeven to ₹83 Cr — and it’s not a one-off. Alpex is printing profits, not promises.

🚀 4. Return Ratios

🎯 ROCE doubling every year = capital is being used ruthlessly well.

📌 Takeaway:
Alpex isn’t just growing — it’s growing efficiently. And in solar manufacturing, margin + return ratios are your moat. The numbers suggest it’s starting to build one.

📄 Page 5: Competitive Positioning – Who’s the Real Waaree Killer?

Alpex isn’t just trying to build solar panels. It’s trying to build a moat — in a segment where most players are stuck in assembly-line mediocrity.

So… how does it stack up?

🥊 1. Peer Comparison – Valuation & Scale

🧠 Alpex has better ROCE than Waaree & Premier — but trades at a ~35% discount on P/E.

🏭 2. What’s Alpex’s Edge?

📊 SWOT Matrix

🥇 So Who Wins?

📌 Alpex isn’t the biggest player yet — but it’s the fastest-growing one with the cleanest runway.
Unlike capital-guzzlers, Alpex is funding expansion through IPO cash + internal accruals. No perpetual dilution. No death-by-debt.

📄 Page 6: What’s Changed Recently – Orders, Capex & Execution Pipeline

📦 Massive Orders Secured (April–May 2025)

Between April 24 and May 12, Alpex Solar bagged ₹1,069 Cr in fresh orders across solar EPC and B2B supply.

🔥 Total Fresh Orders: ₹1,068.84 Cr
That’s 1.37x of FY25 Revenue booked in just 19 days.

🏗️ Capacity Update

• Existing: 850 MW functional (PV modules)
• Under Expansion:
  • 1.2 GW at existing Noida plant
  • New 1.2 GW plant coming up in Mathura (UPSIDA) – land acquired
• Target by FY26: 2.4 GW module capacity
• Also expanding into cell manufacturing (1.6 GW) in planning phase

📍 Total ₹642 Cr capex underway, fully funded via IPO proceeds + internal accruals

🔄 Management Update

• 🧾 CFO Change:
  • Amit Ghai resigned
  • Udaya Sehgal appointed CFO on June 4, 2025
  • Possible reason: aligning finance strategy with aggressive expansion pipeline

🏁 Execution Visibility = 📈 Revenue Predictability

Alpex now has:

• Orders stretching into FY26 (Mar deadlines)
• EPC and module mix = diversified revenue stream
• State + PSU + Private = reduced client concentration risk

📌 Key Takeaway:

Alpex isn’t just “riding solar tailwinds” — it’s building a multi-segment solar backlog that gives 12–18 months of revenue visibility. Most SME-listed peers? Still living quarter-to-quarter.

📄 Page 7: Risk Factors – What Can Go Wrong?

Yes, Alpex is riding high on orders, margin expansion, and a sectoral boom.
But we’re EduInvesting — not fanboys.

Here’s what could throw a spanner in the solar frame:

⚠️ 1. Execution Risk on ₹1,069 Cr Orders

• EPC is a landmine if timelines slip or costs overrun.
• 540-day timelines (CMPDI order) → cash flows are back-ended.
• HAREDA 120-day delivery? One monsoon delay, and it’s a compliance headache.

🔁 Execution delays = delayed revenue recognition = PAT shock.

🧾 2. Working Capital Stress

• Alpex has improved cash cycles (53 days now vs 101 in FY23)
• But: ₹349 Cr from Coal India-type tenders usually comes with heavy receivables lag
• If advance payments aren’t structured right, we could see temporary debt spike again

💸 Cashflow ≠ Profit. Especially in EPC.

🏭 3. Expansion Overload

• 2.4 GW module + 1.6 GW cell capex = ₹600–700 Cr over 2 years
• Can current internal accruals + IPO funds support both?
• If margins slip or demand slows, we risk a debt-funded spiral

📉 ROCE can collapse quickly if assets come up before orders.

🧠 4. Green Hydrogen = Buzzword Risk

• GH2 subsidiary exists — but has zero traction as of now
• No policy clarity, no subsidy defined, no orders yet
• Including this in core valuation would be speculative

☠️ If they start raising debt “for GH2 scale-up”, that’s a red flag.

💥 5. Valuation is No Longer Dirt Cheap

• CMP ₹999
• EduFair™ FV: ₹875–₹1,025
• Stock now trades near upper bound of valuation

This is not a ₹5 stock going to ₹50 story. It’s a ₹1,000 stock that needs delivery + consistency.

⚠️ Other Minor Risks

• 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Family-run firm — succession, CFO churn risk
• 🏢 SME-listed — liquidity issues for large investors
• 🇨🇳 Module cell sourcing still partially China-linked
• 😓 No dividend = no cushion in flat years

📌 Takeaway:
Alpex has execution mojo — but it must now prove it can scale without slipping.
Margins are up, orders are in. Now comes the hard part: delivering on promises.

📄 Page 8: Management Lens

👔 Management: Who’s Steering This Solar Ship?

🧔‍♂️ Ashwani Sehgal (CMD & Promoter)

• Founder, solar veteran, ex-ISMA President
• Started Alpex back when “solar” meant water heaters on Delhi roofs
• Runs the commercial + vision side
• Has kept promoter stake high at 68.76% — ✅ skin in the game

🎯 Verdict: He’s not just a figurehead — he’s been in the trenches, inverters, and tender rooms.

🧑‍💼 Monica Sehgal (Executive Director)

• Heads admin, HR, and ops
• MCA postgrad from Bhopal University
• Keeps the organisation ship tight — especially during scale-up
• Been with the firm since day zero (1995 incorporation)

📦 Your classic family-run, tight-control SME DNA — but efficient, not bloated.

👨‍💻 Vipin Sehgal (Executive Director)

• Production engineering + commerce dual background
• Leads ERP systems, tech adoption, and manufacturing ops
• Also handles R&D direction (frames, junction boxes, etc.)

🧠 He’s the “techie Sehgal” — critical for backward integration roadmap.

🔄 CFO Update

• Amit Ghai resigned in June 2025
• Replaced by Uday Sehgal (new-gen promoter family?)
• May indicate tighter financial alignment as capex intensifies

⚠️ Needs monitoring — CFO transitions during expansion are a known risk area

📌 EduInvesting View:
This isn’t a hype-fueled startup or a PSU handholder.
Alpex’s management is operator-first, promoter-heavy, and sector-experienced.
A good mix — as long as they don’t over-leverage for vanity projects like green hydrogen.

📄 Page 9: Investment Checklist – Does Alpex Pass the EduInvesting Filter?

Time to check if Alpex is just another “solar hope story” or a real business with bite.
We ran it through our EduInvesting 7-Point Framework™ 👇

🎯 Edu Score: 6.5 / 7

🧪 Verdict: This isn’t just another panel peddler.
Alpex is building a real business — with real cash, real orders, and real margins.

Not perfect. But damn promising.

📄 Page 10: Final Thoughts + Meme Zone

🎯 Final Take – Alpex Solar in One Line:

An underhyped, overdelivering solar stock that’s scaling like a startup but profiting like a PSU.

✅ Orders booked.
✅ Margins rising.
✅ Moat forming.
❌ Not a tip. Just research.

😂 Meme Zone

“Woh uncle jinhone abhi solar lagwaya hai…”
🌞☀️⚡

“Beta, din bhar AC chalao, koi tension nahi hai — ab toh light free hai!”

Meanwhile Alpex Solar: Thanks uncle marketing ka cheque ghar pe bhej denge

🙌 That’s a wrap on EduInvesting Premium Report

June 2025 | Stock Covered: Alpex Solar Ltd

Tagline reminder:

“1 stock. No tips. Just research.”