Current Price: ₹681.40 | Down from ₹4,000+ Peak
🧯 At a Glance
- Adani Total Gas Ltd (ATGL) posted ₹1,116 Cr net profit in FY25, up 9% YoY.
- Revenue rose 8% to ₹4,654 Cr, driven by higher PNG (industrial) volumes.
- But the stock? Still down ~80% from its ATH of ₹4,000.
- Why? A mix of regulatory overhangs, valuation bubbles, and investor heartbreak post-Hindenburg.
So, is ATGL still a ticking time bomb — or an undervalued gem with French perfume (read: TotalEnergies)?
⛽ Company Overview
- JV between Adani Group (74.8%) and TotalEnergies (25.2%)
- Operates City Gas Distribution (CGD) networks
- Supplies:
- PNG – Piped Natural Gas (domestic, industrial, commercial)
- CNG – Compressed Natural Gas (auto fuel)
- Operating in 33 Geographical Areas across India
- Recent foray into EV charging and bio-CNG
In short: India’s largest listed CGD player with multibillion rupee ambitions… and recent reputation wounds.
🧑💼 Key Managerial Personnel
| Name | Designation |
|---|---|
| Suresh P. Manglani | Executive Director & CEO |
| Rajeev Mittal | CFO |
| Gautam Adani | Chairman |
| Thomas Maurisse | Nominee Director (Total) |
Yes, Adani + Total = Global + Local credibility — at least on paper.
💰 FY25 Financial Highlights (Standalone)
| Metric | FY25 | FY24 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from Operations | ₹4,654 Cr | ₹4,315 Cr | ▲ 8% |
| EBITDA | ₹1,597 Cr | ₹1,427 Cr | ▲ 12% |
| PAT | ₹1,116 Cr | ₹1,021 Cr | ▲ 9.3% |
| EPS (Basic) | ₹10.10 | ₹9.25 | ▲ 9.2% |
| ROE | 25.61% | 29.68% | ▼ |
| ROCE | 19.48% | 21.95% | ▼ |
Steady growth — but returns are compressing as expansion ramps up and cost of capital rises.
📈 Volume & Segment Growth
| Segment | FY25 Volume (MMSCM) | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|
| PNG – Industrial & Commercial | 610 | ▲ 17% |
| PNG – Domestic | 89 | ▲ 10% |
| CNG – Automotive | 494 | ▲ 6% |
| Total Volume | 1,193 | ▲ 11% |
Industrial is booming. CNG still recovering post EV penetration concerns.
⚙️ Capex & Expansion
- ₹1,174 Cr capex deployed in FY25
- Focus on:
- Gas network expansion
- EV charging (plans for 800+ stations)
- Bio-CNG & LNG trucking
- ATGL EV Charging: Installed 104 stations in FY25, aims for 1,500 by 2027
Also testing hydrogen blending and satellite LNG stations — because buzzwords attract market attention.
🏦 Balance Sheet Highlights
| Metric | FY25 | FY24 |
|---|---|---|
| Net Worth | ₹4,431 Cr | ₹3,802 Cr |
| Borrowings | ₹2,775 Cr | ₹1,905 Cr |
| D/E Ratio | 0.63x | 0.50x |
| Cash & Equivalents | ₹54 Cr | ₹226 Cr |
Debt rising with capex, but still within safe thresholds.
But cash tanked — down by 76%. Expansion is expensive.
💸 Cash Flow Summary
| Cash Flow Type | FY25 (₹ Cr) | FY24 (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|
| Operating | ₹1,219 Cr | ₹1,245 Cr |
| Investing | ₹(1,246) Cr | ₹(1,226) Cr |
| Financing | ₹(145) Cr | ₹(152) Cr |
| Net Cash Flow | ₹(172) Cr | ₹(133) Cr |
Free cash flow negative for second straight year due to heavy capex.
🧾 Auditor Remarks
- Clean audit report
- No qualifications or red flags
- Compliance with Ind AS & CGD guidelines verified
One less headache in Adani’s already crowded legal inbox.
🔍 Valuation Check
FY25 EPS = ₹10.10
CMP = ₹681.40
P/E = ~67x
Let’s say normalized fair P/E for CGD = 35 (comparing peers like IGL, MGL)
✨ Fair Value Estimate = ₹10.10 × 35 = ₹353.50
Which means: The stock is still overpriced by ~90% vs gas utility peers.
That’s why it’s struggling despite solid profits — the market still smells the old froth.
🔥 What Went Wrong Since ₹4,000?
- Hindenburg Allegations (Jan 2023)
→ Triggered 70%+ fall across Adani stocks - Regulatory Uncertainty
→ Sebi, RBI, Supreme Court probes ongoing - Overvaluation Realization
→ Retail realized: Gas isn’t AI. 100+ P/E is madness. - CNG vs EV Debate
→ Auto fuel share may stagnate long-term - Debt-Driven Expansion
→ Looks ambitious, but eats margins & patience
🌱 New Growth Engines
- EV Charging Infra
- Target: 1,500 stations by FY27
- But competition: Tata Power, BPCL, NTPC, even Zomato at this point 😵
- LNG Trucks + Hydrogen
- Early-stage, capital-heavy
- No real monetization visible yet
- Bio-CNG Projects
- Green fuel story, but unprofitable for now
So… story is good. But monetization? Someday, somewhere, somehow.
🧠 EduInvesting Take
“Adani Total Gas is profitable, future-ready… and still priced like it’s curing cancer.”
✅ Strong growth in PNG volumes
✅ EV & LNG segments expanding
✅ 25%+ ROE is elite
BUT:
❌ P/E near 70 — while peers trade at 12–18
❌ Cash burn + capex = pressure on future margins
❌ Still recovering from Hindenburg scars
This isn’t a turnaround story. It’s a valuation detox story.
⚠️ Risks
- PNG/CNG policy changes by PNGRB
- CNG adoption at risk from EV surge
- High P/E despite slow EPS growth
- Capex-heavy — balance sheet tightening
- Ongoing Adani group probes — perception risk
📢 Final Word
Adani Total Gas makes real money. But the market priced it for fantasy.
Now that it’s 80% down, it’s finally approaching sanity — but still has a long road to earn back credibility.
“The gas is real. The hype was inflated.”
Whether it’s your next multibagger or your next mistake depends on one question: Will you buy gas at 70x earnings — or wait till the pressure drops?
Tags: Adani Total Gas, ATGL FY25 Results, Gas Stocks India, CNG vs EV, Adani Group Stocks, Hindenburg Aftermath, Valuation Reset, EduInvesting
