1. At a Glance
Adani Green Energy (AGEL) just fired up the solar panels and added 4.9 GW to reach a massive 15.8 GW capacity. Q1 FY26 revenue shot up 31% to ₹3,800 Cr, but profit came in at a modest ₹34 Cr after a ₹37 Cr impairment. Clearly, even the sun has cloudy days.
2. Introduction
Think of AGEL as the guy who installs the biggest solar farm on the block and then tells you your electricity bill is still going up. With an 127% profit CAGR over five years, this green giant is scaling up faster than your neighbor’s electricity meter during IPL nights.
3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
- Core: Renewable energy generation (solar + wind).
- Structure: Holding company with multiple subsidiaries.
- Play: Long-term PPAs with SECI/Discoms ensuring steady cash flow… unless tariffs get political.
4. Financials Overview
- Revenue Q1 FY26: ₹3,800 Cr (+31% YoY)
- PAT: ₹34 Cr (vs ₹824 Cr last quarter, thanks to impairment)
- OPM: Still a stunning 80% (solar power margins flexing).
Verdict: Revenue bright, profit dimmed by accounting clouds.
5. Valuation – What’s This Stock Worth?
- Current P/E: 88x (because, why not?)
- Fair Value Range: ₹850 – ₹1,100
Punchline: Priced like a luxury EV – sexy, but comes with range anxiety.
6. What-If Scenarios
- Bull Case: Tariff hikes + more capacity → ₹1,300.
- Bear Case: Interest cost + political drama → ₹750.
- Base Case: ₹950–₹1,050 looks sunny.
7. What’s Cooking (SWOT Analysis)
Strengths: Massive capacity, strong backing, long PPAs.
Weakness: High debt, low interest cover.
Opportunities: Green energy boom, global ESG flows.
Threats: Regulatory risks, interest capitalization critics, and rising financing costs.
8. Balance Sheet 💰
| Particulars (Mar’25) | Amount (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 1,584 |
| Reserves | 10,553 |
| Borrowings | 80,040 |
| Total Liabilities | 110,764 |
| Comment: Debt mountain visible from space – Everest of leverage. |
9. Cash Flow (FY23–FY25)
| Year | CFO (₹ Cr) | CFI (₹ Cr) | CFF (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | 7,265 | -3,857 | -2,973 |
| FY24 | 7,713 | -21,060 | 13,953 |
| FY25 | 8,364 | -19,828 | 12,068 |
| Snark: Operating cash is solid, but investing is a money-eating monster. Financing fills the hole. |
10. Ratios – Sexy or Stressy?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ROE | 14.6% |
| ROCE | 8.7% |
| D/E | 7.2x |
| PAT Margin | 6% |
| P/E | 88x |
| Punchline: ROE okay, ROCE meh – debt makes this a tightrope walk. |
11. P&L Breakdown – Show Me the Money
| Year | Revenue (₹ Cr) | EBITDA (₹ Cr) | PAT (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | 7,776 | 4,970 | 973 |
| FY24 | 9,220 | 7,339 | 1,260 |
| FY25 | 11,212 | 8,889 | 2,001 |
| TTM | 12,268 | 9,520 | 2,196 |
| Comment: Revenue keeps shining, profits jump around like sunlight through clouds. |
12. Peer Comparison
| Company | Rev (₹ Cr) | PAT (₹ Cr) | P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTPC | 1,88,138 | 23,422 | 14 |
| JSW Energy | 11,745 | 1,785 | 51 |
| Adani Green | 12,268 | 2,196 | 88 |
| NHPC | 10,379 | 3,006 | 28 |
| Peer check: AGEL’s valuation is sky-high – clearly investors believe in eternal sunshine. |
13. EduInvesting Verdict™
Adani Green remains the poster child of India’s renewable push – high growth, high leverage, and high drama. For now, the sun is shining, but watch out for storms brewing on the debt horizon.
Written by EduInvesting Team | 28 July 2025
Tags: Adani Green Energy, Renewable Power, Q1 FY26 Results, EduInvesting Premium
