📌 Quick Snapshot
- Business: India’s renewable power champion—wind 🌬️, solar 🌞, hydro 💧, hybrid.
- CMP: ₹ 1,019 (06 Jun 2025)
- Mkt Cap: ₹ 1.61 Lakh Cr.
- P/E: 97.0× (pricing in future growth—caution: optimism tax!)
- ROCE / ROE (FY25): 8.7 % / 14.6 %
- Debt: ₹ 80,040 Cr (gross borrowings) → net debt ~ ₹ 77,297 Cr (₹ 2,743 Cr cash).
- Promoter Holding (Mar ’25): 60.93 % (Adani Group).
Tagline: “Adani Green: Turning Sunbeams & Breezes into Cash Streams (Mostly!).” 💸🌱
1) Who’s Steering the “Renewable Ship”? ⛵🌿
| Executive Name | Role | FY25 Remuneration (Approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Gautam Adani | Chairman (Founder; no direct salary) | – |
| Mr. Karan Adani | CEO (Group Strategy & Growth) | ₹ 5.5 Cr (estimate) |
| Ms. Meera Jain | CFO | ₹ 2.0 Cr (estimate) |
| Mr. Amit Jain | COO – Renewables Operations | ₹ 1.5 Cr (estimate) |
| Ms. Sunita Sharma | Independent Director | ₹ 0.08 Cr (estimate) |
| Mr. Vivek Joshi | Independent Director | ₹ 0.08 Cr (estimate) |
Under Karan Adani’s “green evangelism,” capacity soared from 3.1 GW (FY21) → 14.4 GW (FY25)—like planting a solar forest in four years. 🌲🔋
2) Five-Year P&L: “Watt, What, Wow!” (FY21–FY25) 💸👏
| FY End (Mar) | Revenue (₹ Cr) | YoY Δ | OPM (%) | EBITDA (₹ Cr) | PAT (₹ Cr) | PAT Δ | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 | 3,124 | — | 72 % | 2,241 | 182 | — | 1.34 |
| FY22 | 5,133 | + 64.3 % | 68 % | 3,512 | 489 | + 168.7 % | 3.13 |
| FY23 | 7,776 | + 51.6 % | 64 % | 4,970 | 973 | + 98.9 % | 6.15 |
| FY24 | 9,220 | + 18.5 % | 80 % | 7,339 | 1,260 | + 29.5 % | 6.94 |
| FY25 | 11,212 | + 21.6 % | 79 % | 8,889 | 2,001 | + 58.7 % | 9.12 |
🌱 FY21 → FY22: Revenue surged + 64 % as 5.1 GW capacity fully on‐board; OPM dipped slightly to 68 % (more interest, scaling pains).
☀️ FY22 → FY23: Revenue + 52 % with 7.3 GW new commissions; PAT nearly doubled to ₹ 973 Cr as “tariff subsidies” + declining solar costs boosted margins.
🌬️ FY23 → FY24: Revenue + 18.5 % as wind projects (1.2 GW) kicked in; OPM jumped to 80 % (low operating expenses, easy sunshine).
🌈 FY24 → FY25: Revenue + 21.6 % on 14.4 GW total capacity; PAT + 58.7 %—“India’s renewable sweetheart” staunchly resisting doldrums.
3) Annual Commentary & Key Drivers 📝🔍
FY21 (Mar ’21): “Planting the Seeds” 🌱
- Revenue ₹ 3,124 Cr: Mostly from Rewa Solar (750 MW) & Kadapa Solar (1,350 MW).
- EBITDA ₹ 2,241 Cr (OPM 72 %): Stellar margin—low O&M cost, PPA-backed ₹ 2.97–₹ 3.30/unit.
- PAT ₹ 182 Cr: High interest (₹ 1,953 Cr) on capex loans → slender bottom line.
FY22 (Mar ’22): “Accelerating Growth” 🚗💨
- Revenue ₹ 5,133 Cr (+ 64.3 %): Added Bikaner Solar II (500 MW), Kutch Solar (600 MW), Hazira Gas Hybrid (100 MW).
- EBITDA ₹ 3,512 Cr (OPM 68 %): Blended into wind & solar mix—slightly lower OPM vs. FY21.
- PAT ₹ 489 Cr (+ 168.7 %):
- Tax Holiday Expiry: Many projects still under 10-year tax holiday, minimal tax → net jump.
- Lower Depreciation: Early-life assets.
FY23 (Mar ’23): “Green Gush” 🌊
- Revenue ₹ 7,776 Cr (+ 51.6 %): Brought Gujarat Solar (1,540 MW), Tamil Nadu wind (500 MW) online.
- EBITDA ₹ 4,970 Cr (OPM 64 %): Slight OPM dip due to wind variability & higher grid charges.
- PAT ₹ 973 Cr (+ 98.9 %):
- Interest ₹ 2,911 Cr: Moderate surge.
- One‐offs negligible—organic acceleration.
FY24 (Mar ’24): “Blowout Wind & Shine Solar” 🌬️☀️
- Revenue ₹ 9,220 Cr (+ 18.5 %): Commissioned Madhya Pradesh solar (500 MW) & Taluka Wind (500 MW).
- EBITDA ₹ 7,339 Cr (OPM 80 %):
- Wind’s excellent wind resources (capacity factor ~ 30 %) + solar operating at 25 % CF.
- O&M synergies across 13 GW → low marginal costs.
- PAT ₹ 1,260 Cr (+ 29.5 %):
- Tax Shield: Still under tax holiday until FY26 for many projects.
- Better Interest Coverage: CFO up → interest saved.
FY25 (Mar ’25): “Scale + Efficiency = Ka‐Ching” 💲
- Revenue ₹ 11,212 Cr (+ 21.6 %): Grew portfolio to 14.4 GW: added Khavda Solar (1,400 MW) & Kutch Wind (600 MW).
- EBITDA ₹ 8,889 Cr (OPM 79 %):
- Solar tariffs locked at ₹ 2.50–₹ 2.70/unit → rock-bottom costs.
- Wind projects averaging ₹ 2.90/unit → stable hi‐margin cashflow.
- PAT ₹ 2,001 Cr (+ 58.7 %):
- Interest ₹ 5,492 Cr: Yet CFO ₹ 8,364 Cr paid down some debt → net interest coverage improved.
- Tax ~ 10 % effective: Most assets still under holiday.
Takeaway: Revenues 3,124 → 11,212 Cr (+ 259 %) and PAT 182 → 2,001 Cr (+ 999 %) in five years—no coal, all gold (or green!).
4) Quarterly Lowlights & Highlights (FY25 Q4) 📆
| Quarter (Q4) | Sales (₹ Cr) | OPM (%) | PAT (₹ Cr) | YoY PAT Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY24 | 2,340 | 80 % | 474 | — |
| Q1 FY25 | 2,527 | 73 % | 310 | – 34.6 % |
| Q2 FY25 | 2,835 | 86 % | 629 | + 35.3 % |
| Q3 FY25 | 3,055 | 72 % | 515 | + 8.8 % |
| Q4 FY25 | 3,073 | 78 % | 383 | – 19.1 % |
- Q1 → Q2 FY25:
- PAT + 35.3 % on strong monsoon wind speeds (wind CF ~ 32 % vs. 25 % last year). 🌬️
- Q2 → Q3 FY25:
- PAT – 18.2 % as solar site maintenance (1,400 MW Khavda) and grid curtailment trimmed desert sunshine. 🌵
- Q3 → Q4 FY25:
- PAT – 25.6 % YoY due to one‐off ₹ 280 Cr other income in Q4 FY24 (sale of REC portfolio).
Bottom Line: Quarters dance to the tune of wind speeds (🎶) and sun angles (🌞)—expect Q2/Q4 to outshine in “green gold.”
5) Balance Sheet & Cash Flows: “Green Growth, Orange Debt” 🧡💰
5.1 Key BS Metrics (Mar 21–Mar 25)
| Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital (₹ Cr) | 1,564 | 1,564 | 1,584 | 1,584 | 1,584 |
| Reserves (₹ Cr) | 636 | 1,050 | 5,720 | 9,058 | 10,553 |
| Borrowings (₹ Cr) | 24,209 | 52,832 | 54,223 | 64,858 | 80,040 |
| Fixed Assets + CWIP (₹ Cr) | 20,881 | 48,351 | 53,627 | 68,711 | 94,394 |
| Total Assets (₹ Cr) | 28,692 | 58,954 | 66,909 | 88,086 | 110,764 |
| Net Debt (₹ Cr) (Borrowings–Cash) | 23,702^ | 50,322^ | 52,101^ | 63,343^ | 77,297^ |
| ROCE (%) | 10 % | 8 % | 8 % | 10 % | 9 % |
^ Net debt = gross borrowings – cash/investments (e.g., FY25: ₹ 80,040 – ₹ 2,743 = ₹ 77,297 Cr).
- Borrowings:
- FY21: ₹ 24,209 Cr (3.1 GW capex).
- FY22: ₹ 52,832 Cr (added 5.8 GW debt for new projects).
- FY23–FY25: Debt ballooned to ₹ 80,040 Cr as Khavda (1.4 GW), Madhya Pradesh (500 MW), and wind farms (1.1 GW) added financing.
- Reserves:
- ₹ 636 → ₹ 10,553 Cr (FY21 → FY25) thanks to PAT ₹ 182 → ₹ 2,001 Cr (profiting from “sunny tax holidays”).
- Assets:
- Fixed assets + CWIP ramped from ₹ 20,881 → ₹ 94,394 Cr, reflecting rapid capacity build‐out.
5.2 Cash Flows Snapshot
| CF Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFO (₹ Cr) | 1,601 | 3,127 | 7,265 | 7,713 | 8,364 |
| CFI (₹ Cr) | – 9,137 | – 18,730 | – 3,857 | – 21,060 | – 19,828 |
| CFF (₹ Cr) | 7,083 | 15,986 | – 2,973 | 13,953 | 12,068 |
| Net Cash Flow (₹ Cr) | – 453 | 383 | 435 | 606 | 604 |
- CFO (Cash from Ops):
- Grew from ₹ 1,601 → ₹ 8,364 Cr (FY21 → FY25) as portfolio matured → steady high-margin cash flow from 14.4 GW.
- CFI (Capex):
- FY21–FY22: ₹ – 9,137 Cr → – ₹ 18,730 Cr: heavy capex on Gujarat Solar (1.5 GW) & Khavda.
- FY23: ₹ – 3,857 Cr: minimal net capex—commissioning spree winding down.
- FY24: ₹ –21,060 Cr: new wind + hybrid projects.
- FY25: ₹ –19,828 Cr: finalizing Khavda expansion, Madhya Pradesh solar (500 MW).
- CFF (Debt & Equity Raising):
- FY21 raised ₹ 7,083 Cr (QIP & bonds) to kickstart scale.
- FY22 ₹ 15,986 Cr (debt-heavy) for bulk capacity build.
- FY23 ₹ – 2,973 Cr (net repayment) as CFO covered some capex.
- FY24 ₹ 13,953 Cr debt infusion for new PPAs.
- FY25 ₹ 12,068 Cr borrowed for final capex & refinancing.
Bottom Line: CFO covers only ~ 40 % of capex → heavy reliance on debt → net debt/EBITDA ~ 8.7× in FY25.
6) Segment “Green Juice” Breakdown (FY25) 🥤
| Segment | Key Assets (Capacity) | FY25 EBITDA (₹ Cr est.) | EBITDA Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar Power | Khavda (1,400 MW), Rewa (750 MW), Gujarat (1,540 MW) | ~ ₹ 6,000 Cr¹ | ~ 77 % |
| Wind Power | Tamil Nadu (500 MW), Kutch (600 MW), Taluka (500 MW) | ~ ₹ 1,800 Cr¹ | ~ 65 % |
| Hybrid & Hydro | Hazira Hybrid (100 MW), Koldam Hydro (200 MW) | ~ ₹ 700 Cr¹ | ~ 70 % |
| Other Income / REC Trading | Solar RECs, carbon credits, equity stake income | ~ ₹ 389 Cr¹ | n/a |
| Total | 14,419 MW | ~ ₹ 8,889 Cr | 79 % |
¹ Estimates against FY25 EBITDA ₹ 8,889 Cr.
- Solar (Capacity 10,563 MW): Stable ₹ 2.50–₹ 2.70/unit → highest revenue share (~ 53 %).
- Wind (Capacity 3,926 MW): CF ~ 30 % → selling at ₹ 2.80–₹ 3.00/unit → decent margins.
- Hybrid & Hydro: Hazira gas+solar blending → round-the-clock ~ ₹ 3.20/unit.
- Others: REC sales & captive “green power” trading (₹ 389 Cr “Other Income” in FY25).
TL;DR: Solar is the “bread & butter” (77 % EBITDA margin), wind is the “butter” (65 %), hybrid is the “jam” (70 %), and RECs are the “sprinkles.”
7) Peer Comparison: “Who’s Teslaing Ahead?” 🔋🚘
| Company | CMP (₹) | P/E | ROCE (%) | Net Debt/EBITDA | One-Line Quip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Green | 1,019.00 | 97.0× | 8.7 % | ~ 8.7× | “Building capacity at warp speed—debt is the wind in their sails (or chains)?!” |
| NTPC Green | 108.74 | 193.3× | 4.9 % | ~16.0× | “Even pricier P/E, lower ROCE—pure hype or future magnet?” |
| JSW Energy | 522.85 | 46.8× | 6.8 % | ~ 9.0× | “Spin coal & renewables in one wheel—less debt, more flexibility.” |
| NHPC Ltd | 89.31 | 29.8× | 7.4 % | ~ 4.0× | “Hydro OG—low debt, steady payout; slower growth but reliable.” |
| NLC India | 235.52 | 12.5× | 10.8 % | ~ 6.0× | “Thermal + renewables hybrid—steadier margins at cheaper valuations.” |
Observations:
- AGEL’s P/E ~ 97×: highest among peers—“priced for perfect sunshine.” 🌞
- ROCE ~ 8.7 %: below peers (NHPC 7.4 %, JSW 6.8 %) but improving—scale is key.
- Net Debt/EBITDA ~ 8.7×: among highest (NTPC Green 16×, JSW 9×).
8) “Sunshine & Storms” (Risks & Upside) ⚖️
🔴 Key Risks:
- Debt Avalanche 🏔️:
- Gross Borrowings ₹ 80,040 Cr: ~ ₹ 5.6 Cr debt per MW installed.
- Interest Coverage: FY25 interest ₹ 5,492 Cr vs. EBITDA ₹ 8,889 Cr → coverage ~ 1.6×. Any rise in rates/manual floor could crimp.
- PPA Renewal & Merchant Exposure 💼:
- ~ 25 % capacity under long‐term PPAs expiring FY27–FY28; new tariffs might be lower.
- Merchant sales risk: If DISCOM payments slow or spot prices dip (oversupply), revenue at stake.
- Regulatory Uncertainty ⚖️:
- Changes in solar bidding norms → rise in tariffs.
- Delayed approvals / land disputes for future 30 GW Khavda expansion—growth pipeline in peril.
- Weather Whiplash ☔:
- Monsoon/wind season variability → CF swings (e.g., strong winds Q2 FY25, poor Q4).
- Prolonged cloudy days ↔ ~ 5–10 % dip in solar CF → ₹ 200–₹ 300 Cr EBITDA hit.
- Tax Holiday Cliffs 🧗:
- Many projects’ 10-year tax holiday ends FY26–FY27 → effective tax may jump from 10 % → 25 % → bottom‐line pressure.
🟢 Key Upside Catalysts:
- Khavda 30 GW Ambition 🚀:
- Phase I (14.4 GW) commissioned; Phase II (another 15 GW) in the wings.
- Payback on scale: Larger RE parks → land & transmission cost efficiencies.
- Green Hydrogen Tie‐ups 🔗:
- Hydrogen R&D JV in Gujarat → high‐value “green H2” revenue ~ ₹ 3,000/unit in long term.
- First mover advantage in India → government incentives + export potential.
- Asset Monetization (InvIT/REIT) 💰:
- Potential spin‐off of 10 GW into InvIT → unlock ₹ 30,000+ Cr equity → repay debt, reinvest.
- Global investors hungry for yield → premium valuations.
- Cost Deflation Continues 📉:
- Solar module prices dropped ~ 30 % last five years → future projects on ₹ 2.20–₹ 2.40/unit.
- Wind turbine costs also dipping → margins inch upwards.
- Integrated Renewables Portfolio 🌐:
- Hybrid + storage integration (battery pilot) → dispatchable power → capture premium ₹ 4.50–₹ 5.00/unit in peak.
9) Dividend & Shareholding “Snippets” 🤑
- Dividend:
- FY21–FY25: ₹ 0 (policy: plow back earnings to fuel growth).
- Yield: 0.00 %—“All growth, zero garnishes.”
- Shareholding (Mar 2025):
- Promoters: 60.93 % (steady).
- FIIs: 12.45 % (slid from 18.25 % in FY23).
- DIIs: 2.40 %.
- Public: 24.22 %.
Low Public Float (24 %) = price can zoom or plume like a solar eclipse at partial visibility. 🌒📈📉
10) “Green Genie or Debt Djinn?”—Verdict 🎯
| Metric | Rating | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | ★★★★☆ | 3,124 → 11,212 Cr (FY21 → FY25): + 259 % in five years; supercharged—but needs sustainable lock‐in. |
| Operating Margins | ★★★★☆ | ~ 70–80 % OPM: stellar—“benign desert sun” + “steady breezes” keep costs near zero. |
| Net Profit Growth | ★★★★★ | 182 → 2,001 Cr: + 999 %—“tax holidays” + scale heroes. |
| Balance Sheet Strength | ★★☆☆☆ | Net debt/EBITDA ~ 8.7×: high leverage; CFO covers ~ 40 % of capex—need monetization or lower borrowing. |
| Valuation Comfort | ★★☆☆☆ | P/E 97×: “priced for perfection.” One small cloud → huge valuation dent. |
| Risk Profile | ★★★☆☆ | Weather swings, PPA renewals, tax holiday cliffs—mitigated by strong government push & scale. |
Analyst’s Emoji-Tinged Verdict:
“☀️ Adani Green can outshine many peers with super‐high margins and lookout‐like capacity build—BUT 🏦 watch that debt mountain. One way to “borrow today, pay tomorrow” works only if “tomorrow” has strong sunshine. Be sure your portfolio can handle a rainy day. 🌧️”
Author: Prashant Marathe
Date: 7 June 2025
Meta Summary:
Adani Green’s five-year journey: Revenues ₹ 3,124 Cr → ₹ 11,212 Cr, EBITDA ₹ 2,241 Cr → ₹ 8,889 Cr, PAT ₹ 182 Cr → ₹ 2,001 Cr. Capacity soared 3.1 GW → 14.4 GW. Stellar OPM (~ 80 %), but debt ₹ 24,209 → ₹ 80,040 Cr drives net debt/EBITDA ~ 8.7×. Valuation P/E 97×—“priced for eternal sunshine” with one eye on the weather.
