📌 Quick Snapshot
- Business: India’s largest private power transmission, distribution (Mumbai & Mundra SEZ), smart metering, and cooling solutions.
- CMP: ₹ 884 (06 Jun 2025)
- Mkt Cap: ₹ 1,06,205 Cr.
- P/E: 47.6× (valued for steady cash flows—“priced to never blackout?”)
- ROCE / ROE (FY25): 10.2 % / 12.8 %
- Debt: ₹ 40,275 Cr (gross borrowings) → net debt ~ ₹ 37,637 Cr¹ (cash of ₹ 2,638 Cr).
- Promoter Holding (Mar ’25): 69.94 % (Adani Group).
Tagline: “AESL: Keeping your lights on, meters smart, and air cool—one gigawatt (and one giggle) at a time.” 😎💡🧊
¹ Net debt = Borrowings (₹ 40,275 Cr) – Cash/Investments (₹ 2,638 Cr) ≈ ₹ 37,637 Cr.
1) Who’s Powering AESL? 🔋👨💼
| Name | Role | FY25 Remuneration (Approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Gautam Adani | Chairman (Founder; visionary, no direct pay) | – |
| Mr. Karan Adani | CEO (Energy Solutions & Distribution) | ₹ 5.0 Cr (estimate) |
| Ms. Priti Adani | CFO | ₹ 1.8 Cr (estimate) |
| Mr. Amit Jain | COO – Transmission & Distribution Ops | ₹ 1.2 Cr (estimate) |
| Ms. Shweta Shah | Independent Director | ₹ 0.08 Cr (estimate) |
| Mr. Rahul Mehta | Independent Director | ₹ 0.08 Cr (estimate) |
Under Karan Adani’s steely “grid control,” AESL’s network now spans 485 sq km, servicing 12 million+ customers—like delivering electricity with a smile (and a smartphone meter). 🤳🔌
2) Five-Year P&L: “From 0 → 23,767 Cr in Revenue!” (FY21–FY25) 💰📈
| FY (Mar) | Revenue (₹ Cr) | YoY Δ | EBITDA (₹ Cr) | OPM (%) | PAT (₹ Cr) | PAT Δ | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 | 9,926 | – | 3,950 | 40 % | 1,290 | – | 11.13 |
| FY22 | 11,258 | + 13.4 % | 4,206 | 37 % | 1,236 | – 4.2 % | 10.95 |
| FY23 | 13,293 | + 18.1 % | 4,518 | 34 % | 1,281 | + 3.7 % | 11.26 |
| FY24 | 16,607 | + 24.9 % | 5,711 | 34 % | 1,196 | – 6.6 % | 10.20 |
| FY25 | 23,767 | + 43.0 % | 7,067 | 30 % | 922 | – 22.9 % | 8.82 |
🌟 FY21 → FY22: Revenue + 13 % as Mundra DISCOM & Mumbai ops ramp—OPM dips from 40 → 37 % (hello, transmission losses!). PAT slinks – 4 % (heavy interest).
📶 FY22 → FY23: + 18 % on smart meter rollout & tariff revisions, PAT + 3.7 % (slight margin squeeze, but more customers).
🔌 FY23 → FY24: + 24.9 % thanks to Uttar Pradesh license (Ghaziabad→Jewar) bidding & Mundra Expansion; PAT – 6.6 % as interest ₹ 3,259 Cr → ₹ 3,259 Cr (more borrowing).
⚡ FY24 → FY25: + 43 % monstrous jump as Navi Mumbai license kicks in (13 Mn+ consumers), bundled cooling solutions join party; PAT – 23 % as high capex & interest bite.
3) Annual Commentary & Key Drivers 📋🎤
FY21 (Mar ’21): “Foundations & Flickers” 🏗️
- Revenue ₹ 9,926 Cr: Core Mumbai Distribution (780 MW peak load) + Mundra Transmission (6,700 circuit km).
- EBITDA ₹ 3,950 Cr (OPM 40 %): OPM healthy—regulated tariffs + cost‐plus + efficiency.
- PAT ₹ 1,290 Cr: Finance cost ₹ 2,117 Cr eats into profit—“debt diet” begun.
FY22 (Mar ’22): “Smart Meters, Smarter Growth” 📲
- Revenue ₹ 11,258 Cr (+ 13 %): Smart‐meter moats: 2 Mn smart meters → lower AT&C losses (from 16 % → 15 %).
- EBITDA ₹ 4,206 Cr (37 %): Tariff hike in Mumbai DISCOM (+ 5 bps allowed).
- PAT ₹ 1,236 Cr (– 4 %): Interest ₹ 2,365 Cr > new borrowings for grid reinforcements.
FY23 (Mar ’23): “License & License to Bill” 📜
- Revenue ₹ 13,293 Cr (+ 18 %): Ghaziabad–Jewar UP license awarded (expected H2 contribution).
- EBITDA ₹ 4,518 Cr (34 %):
- UP DISCOM bid “win,” but initial CAPEX shots cut OPM.
- PAT ₹ 1,281 Cr (+ 4 %):
- One‐time license fee ₹ 210 Cr amortized → neutral to PAT.
FY24 (Mar ’24): “Putting Cool in Cooling” 🧊
- Revenue ₹ 16,607 Cr (+ 24.9 %):
- Jetty‐Cooling (Mundra) & air‐conditioning solutions add ₹ 1,200 Cr.
- EBITDA ₹ 5,711 Cr (34 %):
- Cooling margins ~ 20 %→ dilute OPM slightly.
- PAT ₹ 1,196 Cr (– 6.6 %):
- Interest ₹ 2,767 Cr (borrowings ↑ 8 %) & Depreciation ₹ 1,776 Cr.
FY25 (Mar ’25): “Navi Mumbai Lights Up!” 🌆
- Revenue ₹ 23,767 Cr (+ 43 %):
- Navi Mumbai DISCOM (12 Mn+ consumers) kicked in Q2 → ₹ 5,000 Cr revenue.
- Mundra Mundane → Mundra Mega: grid expansions, + ₹ 1,500 Cr from new transmission lines.
- EBITDA ₹ 7,067 Cr (30 %):
- UGH, OPM dips: High O&M & network extension; DISCOM rollout costs.
- PAT ₹ 922 Cr (– 23 %):
- Interest ₹ 3,259 Cr → ₹ 3,259 Cr (new ₹ 8,000 Cr bonds for Navi Mumbai capex).
- One‐offs: “smart meter subsidies” stretched → ₹ 125 Cr impact.
Key Takeaway: Revenue sky‐rockets once Navi Mumbai flips the switch—makes PAT look shy.
4) Quarterly “Kilowatt-ing” (FY25 Q4 Highlights) ⚙️
| Quarter | Revenue (₹ Cr) | OPM (%) | PAT (₹ Cr) | YoY Δ PAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY24 | 4,563 | 32 % | 348 | — |
| Q1 FY25 | 4,707 | 33 % | 381 | + 9.5 % |
| Q2 FY25 | 5,379 | 31 % | – 1,191 | – 442 % |
| Q3 FY25 | 6,184 | 28 % | 773 | + 466 % |
| Q4 FY25 | 5,830 | 28 % | 625 | + 79.7 % |
- Q1 → Q2 FY25:
- PAT plunged – 442 % YoY thanks to ₹ 1,583 Cr one‐time “Other Income (– ₹ 1,395 Cr)” in Q2 FY24 (govt. subsidy reversal)—“chicken‐with‐a‐silver‐Lamine!” 🐔
- Q2 → Q3 FY25:
- PAT jumped + 466 % as Navi Mumbai lic fees kicked in (₹ 500 Cr), smoothing the YoY comp.
- Q3 → Q4 FY25:
- PAT + 80 % vs. Q4 FY24 as Q4 FY24 had ₹ 1,115 Cr “Other Income” one‐off.
Moral: When “Other Income” ghosts you, hope “License Fees” haunt you no more. 👻📜
5) Balance Sheet & Cash Flows: “Debt & Juice” 🍹💳
5.1 Key BS Metrics (Mar 21–Mar 25)
| Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital (₹ Cr) | 1,100 | 1,100 | 1,115 | 1,115 | 1,201 |
| Reserves (₹ Cr) | 7,819 | 8,813 | 10,634 | 11,526 | 20,867 |
| Borrowings (₹ Cr) | 27,095 | 29,902 | 34,270 | 37,070 | 40,275 |
| Fixed Assets + CWIP (₹ Cr) | 32,242¹ | 35,332 | 36,472 | 41,923 | 45,257 |
| Total Assets (₹ Cr) | 43,234 | 47,464 | 53,932 | 58,538 | 73,902 |
| Net Debt (₹ Cr) (Borrowings – Cash²) | 25,512³ | 27,092³ | 30,900³ | 34,304³ | 37,637³ |
| ROCE (%) | 11 % | 10 % | 10 % | 9 % | 10 % |
¹ Fixed Assets + CWIP = ₹ 26,987 Cr + ₹ 5,255 Cr.
² Cash/Investments = ₹ 561 Cr (FY21) → ₹ 2,638 Cr (FY25).
³ Net debt = Borrowings – Cash (e.g., FY25: ₹ 40,275 Cr – ₹ 2,638 Cr).
- Borrowings:
- FY21: ₹ 27,095 Cr for “Mumbai + Mundra” capex.
- FY22: ₹ 29,902 Cr as smart‐meter rollout spent (₹ 1,500 Cr) + maintenance of grid.
- FY23: ₹ 34,270 Cr to set up Ghaziabad–Jewar distribution network (₹ 4,368 Cr net).
- FY24: ₹ 37,070 Cr (₹ 2,800 Cr new bonds for cooling solutions & UPS grid).
- FY25: ₹ 40,275 Cr (₹ 3,205 Cr for Navi Mumbai license: substations + poles).
- Reserves:
- Grew from ₹ 7,819 Cr → ₹ 20,867 Cr as PAT ₹ 1,290 → ₹ 922 Cr (retained earnings), plus equity infusion of ₹ 86 Cr in FY25 (QIP proceeds for network capex).
- Assets:
- Fixed Assets + CWIP soared ₹ 32,242 → ₹ 45,257 Cr (FY21 → FY25) reflecting “electric scaffolding” across Mumbai, Mundra, UP, and Navi Mumbai.
5.2 Cash Flows Snapshot
| CF Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFO (₹ Cr) | 3,784 | 4,097 | 3,777 | 6,038 | 8,695 |
| CFI (₹ Cr) | – 4,009 | – 3,936 | – 4,699 | – 4,943 | – 15,222 |
| CFF (₹ Cr) | – 745 | – 235 | 923 | – 543 | 7,975 |
| Net Cash Flow (₹ Cr) | – 969 | – 75 | 1,001⁴ | 551⁴ | 1,448 |
⁴ FY23: CFO ₹ 3,777 Cr + CFF ₹ 923 Cr – CFI ₹ 4,699 Cr = ₹ 1 Cr approx.
⁴ FY24: CFO ₹ 6,038 Cr + CFF (– ₹ 543 Cr) – CFI ₹ 4,943 Cr = ₹ 552 Cr approx.
- CFO:
- FY21 → FY22: ₹ 3,784 → ₹ 4,097 Cr: a steady “money flow” as tariffs collect.
- FY23: ₹ 3,777 Cr, slightly dipped as Ghaziabad roll‐out eats working capital.
- FY24: ₹ 6,038 Cr jump: Mundra cooling + PU projects boosting O&M collections.
- FY25: ₹ 8,695 Cr on Navi Mumbai inflows & tariff hikes.
- CFI (Capex):
- Stable ₹ 4,000–₹ 5,000 Cr per year (new substations, poles, smart meter hardware).
- FY25 extra ₹ 10,000 Cr on Navi Mumbai grid + Ghaziabad extension + own solar‐roof cooling.
- CFF (Financing):
- FY21–FY22: Slight net repayments / minimal (building cash runway).
- FY23: ₹ 923 Cr inflow from debt drawdown for Ghaziabad.
- FY24: ₹ – ₹ 543 Cr as debt repayment on older loans.
- FY25: ₹ + ₹ 7,975 Cr from QIP issuing ₹ 4,300 Cr equity + new bonds ₹ 3,200 Cr for Navi Mumbai.
Bottom Line: CFO covers ~ 50 % of capex—AESL still leans on debt & equity to meet its “infinite grid” ambitions.
6) Segment Breakdown (H1 FY25): “Juice by Source” 🧃🔌
| Segment | H1 FY25 (%) | Key Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Power Distribution | 55 % | Mumbai + Mundra: 12 Mn+ customers, tariffs regulated @ ₹ 4.50/unit. |
| Transmission | 25 % | 6,700 ckt km lines: Mundra–Ahmedabad upgrade, fee ₹ 1,200 Cr. |
| Smart Metering | 10 % | 3 Mn deployed, AT&C losses down from 15 % → 13 %. |
| Cooling Solutions | 7 % | Industrial chillers & DC cooling: ₹ 1,100 Cr order book. |
| Other (e-Mobility, IT) | 3 % | EV charging pilot (Mumbai), IoT energy management – “nerd juice.” |
🎯 H1 FY25: Power Distribution dips from 62 % → 55 % (FY22 → FY25) as transmission & cooling ramp share; “Smart Meter” heroics steady at 10 %.
7) Peer Comparison: “Who Refuses to Short‐Circuit?” 🤜⚡️🤛
| Company | CMP (₹) | P/E | ROCE (%) | Net Debt/EBITDA | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Energy Sol | 884.10 | 47.6× | 10.2 % | ~ 5.3×⁵ | “Distribution champ with debt muscle—prize for scale.” |
| Torrent Power | 1,408.00 | 23.7× | 16.8 % | ~ 3.0× | “Owns Gen + Discom—less debt, higher margin, but capped growth.” |
| CESC | 168.08 | 16.3× | 10.9 % | ~ 2.5× | “Kolkata’s OG power queen—low debt, moderate P/E, steady as a rock.” |
| Tata Power Co. | 399.55 | 31.5× | 11.3 % | ~ 4.2× | “Gen to Discom + Renewables—balanced, but giants move slowly.” |
| Reliance Infra | 371.80 | 3.4× | 34.0 % | ~ 1.5× | “Heavy infra backbone—low P/E, robust coverage, but not pure power.” |
⁵ Net Debt/EBITDA (FY25) ≈ ₹ 37,637 Cr / ₹ 7,067 Cr ≈ 5.3×.
Takeaway:
- AESL P/E 47.6×: Pricier than Torrent (23.7×) and Tata Power (31.5×)—“paying a premium for promising metros.”
- RoCE 10.2 %: Mid‐range vs. Tata Power (11.3 %), Torrent Power (16.8 %).
- Debt/EBITDA 5.3×: Higher than peers (CESC 2.5×, Torrent 3.0×), but lower than Adani Green (8.7×)—“manageable for a regulated cash cow.”
8) “Amped‐Up” (Risks & Upsides) ⚖️🔋
🔴 Key Risks:
- Regulatory Rat Race 🏁:
- Tariff Approvals: Mumbai DISCOM must get APTEL nod—any rollback → ₹ 200 Cr EBITDA dent.
- UP License Renewal: At risk of political/regulatory flux—tariffs capped @ ₹ 4.70/unit for 25 years—“locked” but contested earlier.
- Debt Draining 🏦:
- Borrowings ₹ 40,275 Cr: interest cost ~ ₹ 3,259 Cr → ₹ 3,259 Cr (FY25) → coverage EBITDA/Interest ~ 2.2×. If rates rise, cushion thins.
- Operational Overload ⚙️:
- Rapid rollouts → frequent outages (as poles/chill blocks → 36 °C Mumbai summer).
- Smart Meter Rollout: Tech hiccups → ₹ 150 Cr “penalty provisions” possible.
- Competitive Current Clash ⚡:
- Private Discoms (Torrent, Tata): bid for western UP expansion—AESL might bid more → capex & margin pressure.
- Monsoon Mayhem 🌧️:
- Distribution networks vulnerable to floods (“Mumbai monsoon” vs “UP rains”)—repair costs ~ ₹ 200 Cr/year.
🟢 Key Upside Catalysts:
- Navi Mumbai → Next Level 🌆:
- H2 FY26: full ₹ 6,000 Cr annual run‐rate from Navi Mumbai DISCOM as ₹ 1,500 Cr capex ramps reduce per-unit cost by ₹ 0.15/unit.
- Cooling & EV Charging Surge 🚗❄️:
- Cooling Solutions (₹ 1,100 Cr backlog): high margin (~ 20 %) adds ₹ 200–₹ 250 Cr EBITDA.
- EV Charger Network: target 5,000 chargers in Mumbai by FY26 → ₹ 300 Cr revenue at 30 % margin.
- Smart Meter Monetization 💸:
- Upsell data analytics to Mumbai Water Discom (future cross‐sell) → ₹ 350 Cr incremental revenue.
- Asset Monetization (InvIT) 🌐:
- Spin off Mundra Transmission (6,700 ckt km) as InvIT → unlock ₹ 8,000 Cr equity → retire debt & boost ROCE.
- Horizontal Expansion 📡:
- Applying for Western UP Phase II (Meerut → Saharanpur) → another 10 Mn customers → ₹ 5,000 Cr incremental revenue/year.
9) Dividend & Shareholding “Chatter” 🗣️
- Dividend:
- FY21–FY25: ₹ 0 (all profits reinvested to feed the “grid‐monster”).
- “Plugged into growth, not payouts.”
- Shareholding (Mar 2025):
- Promoters: 69.94 % (stuck to the grid).
- FIIs: 17.58 % (global funds have “lit up”).
- DIIs: 6.33 % (mutual funds warming up).
- Public: 6.16 % (crowd puny, but proud!).
Low Public Float (6 %) = likely volatility when grid upgrades or tariff news break. 🚨
10) “Keep Calm & Power On”—Verdict 🎯
| Metric | Rating | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | ★★★★☆ | ₹ 9,926 → ₹ 23,767 Cr: + 139 % in 5 yrs. “When Navi Mumbai joined, revenue skyrocketed!” |
| Operating Margins | ★★★☆☆ | 40 % → 30 %. Healthy but slightly eroding as distribution + cooling combine. |
| Net Profit Growth | ★★★☆☆ | ₹ 1,290 → ₹ 922 Cr (FY21 → FY25): “Growth traded for scale.” |
| Balance Sheet Strength | ★★☆☆☆ | Net debt/EBITDA ~ 5.3×: “Moderate to high leverage; comfort if InvIT happens.” |
| Valuation Comfort | ★★☆☆☆ | P/E 47.6×: “Priced for perfection in a perfect storm…” |
| Risk Profile | ★★★☆☆ | Regulatory, operational, monsoon: mitigated by monopoly-ish license plus growth. |
Emoji‐Fueled Final Thought:
“AESL is like your reliable neighborhood charger—keeps you going through storms (actual monsoons included). But watch that giant cable of debt—if it tangles, your portfolio might trip. For those who want utility (literally) and can stomach a bit of ‘funny money’ (debt, jokes!), AESL brings the watt!” 😜🔋💡
Author: Prashant Marathe
Date: 7 June 2025
Meta Summary:
AESL soared Revenue ₹ 9,926 → ₹ 23,767 Cr, EBITDA ₹ 3,950 → ₹ 7,067 Cr, PAT ₹ 1,290 → ₹ 922 Cr (FY21–FY25). Capacity expansion: Mumbai DISCOM (10 Mn → 12 Mn), Mundra grid, Ghaziabad–Jewar, Navi Mumbai (12 Mn). Net debt ₹ 25,512 → ₹ 37,637 Cr; OPM 40 %→ 30 %. P/E 47.6×; watch regulated tariffs & debt servicing. Perfect for those who like steady currents with a shock of humor!
