1. Opening Hook
In May, ACME Solar’s management stood tall, promising to light up the nation with 7 GW dreams and battery storage plans that sounded straight out of a sci-fi movie. Investors nodded, analysts scribbled, and the stock probably went out for a chai break. Come July, the company returned with another round of storytelling – this time sprinkling numbers like confetti and showing off a few shiny new toys (read: BESS orders and 350 MW commissioning). But did they actually deliver, or just replace old hype with new jargon?
Let’s get to our favourite pastime: doodh ka doodh aur pani ka pani.
2. At a Glance – May vs July
- Revenue:
- May – INR 1,575 Cr FY25 (annual) – management bragged about it like a Michelin star chef.
- July – INR 584 Cr Q1FY26 – revenue doubled YOY, now they’re bragging louder.
- Margins:
- May – 89% EBITDA margin – “we are efficient.”
- July – 91% EBITDA margin – “we are more efficient.”
- Capacity:
- May – 2.7 GW operational, near-term 3 GW.
- July – 2.89 GW operational, with 350 MW new toys added.
- Guidance:
- May – FDRE & hybrid to rule FY26-FY27.
- July – same song, new lyrics: “We signed 550 MW PPAs and ordered 3.1 GWh BESS.”
- Stock Mood:
- May – Investors were cautiously optimistic.
- July – Traders smelled momentum and possibly caffeine.
3. The Story So Far – May’s Big Promises
In May, ACME promised to hit the 3 GW operational milestone, lock in PPAs, and be India’s battery-powered superhero. They boasted about Rajasthan’s CUF, refinancing benefits, and a pipeline of 7 GW that would make any utility jealous. But hidden in the fine print were risks: delayed PPA signings, reliance on Chinese battery suppliers, and timelines that could slip faster than an IPL cheerleader on wet grass.
Investors were told: “Trust us, Q1FY26 will be big.”
4. Management Commentary Evolution – Doodh vs Pani
| Theme | May Statement (Pani) | July Statement (Doodh/Pani) | Sarcastic Translation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capacity Growth | “We’ll hit 3 GW soon.” | “We’ve commissioned 350 MW and reached 2.89 GW.” | They actually did it – doodh. |
| BESS Projects | “Battery storage will be our future.” | “We won maiden standalone BESS 550 MWh, ordered 3.1 GWh BESS.” | Batteries finally got real – doodh. |
| PPAs | “PPAs signing soon.” | “Signed 550 MW PPAs, balance under process.” | Some doodh, some still pani. |
| Margins | “Our EBITDA margin is stellar at 89%.” | “Now 91% margin – stellar++.” | Doodh, with a cream topping. |
| Debt & Financing | “Refinanced INR 7,700 Cr at 8.8%.” | “Cut interest by 95 bps on INR 1,072 Cr refinancing.” | Pure doodh – saving money is sexy. |
| Guidance | “FDRE & hybrid will dominate.” | “Same plan, just louder.” | Reheated promises – lukewarm pani. |
5. Numbers Face-Off – Facts Speak Louder
| Metric | May Concall (FY25) | July Concall (Q1FY26) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue – The Hero | INR 1,575 Cr (annual) | INR 584 Cr (quarterly, +72% YOY) | Genuine doodh |
| EBITDA – The Sidekick | INR 1,400 Cr (annual) | INR 531 Cr (quarterly, +76% YOY) | Strengthened doodh |
| Margins – The Drama Queen | 89% | 91% | Pure milk |
| Operational Capacity | 2.7 GW | 2.89 GW | Doodh |
| PAT | INR 251 Cr (annual) | INR 131 Cr (quarterly, up from 1 Cr YOY) | Doodh, with malai |
6. Analyst Questions – Who Exposed the Truth?
In May, analysts grilled management on PPA delays and battery supplier risks. Management danced around specifics like a Bollywood hero avoiding commitment.
In July, analysts again poked: “Why are some PPAs still unsigned?” Management admitted delays but quickly distracted with “look, batteries!”
Verdict: Analysts spotted both doodh (real progress) and pani (strategic vagueness).
7. Guidance – Promises vs Delivery
- May Promise: 3 GW operational soon, FDRE to deliver 43–45% CUF, batteries to revolutionize revenue.
- July Reality: 2.89 GW delivered, FDRE PPAs partially signed, batteries ordered but yet to fully kick in.
- Mock Corporate Slogan: “We’re almost there – please clap.”
8. Risks & Red Flags – Filtered Out
- PPA Delays: Still an issue (pani).
- AP Discom dues: Outstanding but under control (skimmed milk).
- Wind Projects: Underperforming, with low CUF expectations (thin watery lassi).
- Battery Dependency on China: Still risky, but hedged (half doodh).
9. Market Mood – Investor Reaction Filtered
- May: Investors shrugged, thinking, “Another quarter, another promise.”
- July: Numbers impressed, stock likely got a short-term sugar rush. Meme traders posted: “ACME charging up like its batteries.”
10. EduInvesting Take – Doodh ka Doodh Verdict
- What’s Pure Milk (Facts)?
- Revenue & PAT growth.
- Margin expansion.
- BESS orders and first wind commissioning.
- Reduced interest costs.
- What’s Just Water (Fluff)?
- PPA signing delays remain.
- Over-optimistic FDRE timelines.
- Recycled guidance rhetoric.
Verdict: They’ve walked part of the talk – but still need to sprint to fully justify the hype.
11. Conclusion – The Final Pour
In July, ACME Solar served a better cocktail than May – more milk, less water, and a dash of battery-powered excitement. Yet, a few watery promises still float at the top, waiting to be scooped out next quarter.
Final sip? Some doodh was delivered, but the next call will decide if they finally serve a full glass or just frothy bubbles.
Written by EduInvesting Team
Data sourced from: Company concall transcripts (May & July), investor presentations, and filings.
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