1. At a Glance
India’s No. 1 drone-maker Ideaforge just landed a ₹137 Cr order from the Indian Army — and still managed to clock a ₹23.6 Cr quarterly loss. Revenue shrunk 85% YoY. Shareholding is flying south, and so is investor confidence.
2. Introduction with Hook
You know that scene in every sci-fi movie where the drone malfunctions and goes rogue? That’s Ideaforge right now — incredible tech, government backing, orders galore… and yet the balance sheet is straight-up leaking coolant.
- Q1 FY26 Revenue: ₹12.8 Cr vs ₹97 Cr YoY → -85.2%
- Net Loss: ₹23.6 Cr
- New Orders: ₹137 Cr from Indian Army
- Stock down 33% in a year despite commanding 50%+ drone market share
3. Business Model (WTF Do They Even Do?)
Ideaforge = India’s OG Drone Commander
- Product Portfolio:
– Switch UAV: Long-range, vertical takeoff
– Q Series: Quadcopter drones
– NETRA: Surveillance drones (used in surgical strikes & border patrol)
– COTS & Military-Grade VTOL Drones - Revenue Mix:
– 95%+ from defense
– Recent push for civil/industrial use drones - Key Segments:
– Surveillance, Mapping, Target Acquisition, Recon
– Military + Disaster Relief + Border Surveillance - Software Suite: Integrated flight control, analytics, real-time video relay
So yes, they build the tech Batman would use if he were in DRDO.
4. Financials Overview
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| TTM Revenue | ₹88 Cr |
| TTM PAT | ₹-87 Cr |
| OPM | -85% |
| ROE | -10.3% |
| ROCE | -9.69% |
| Market Cap | ₹2,354 Cr |
| Book Value | ₹141 |
| CMP / BV | 3.86x |
In short: 50% market share. 0% profits. Bleeding capital like it’s prepping for a drone crash landing.
5. Valuation
With negative profits, valuation becomes pure hopium — or defense-macro extrapolation.
| Method | FV Range |
|---|---|
| Book Value Based (2.5x–3.5x) | ₹350 – ₹500 |
| EV/Sales (4x on normalized ₹150 Cr sales) | ₹600 |
| Peer Comparables (Zen, Data Patterns) | Not applicable – peers are profitable |
EduInvesting Fair Value Range™: ₹400 – ₹500
CMP of ₹545 = optimism priced in; profitability nowhere in sight (yet).
6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
- Big Win: ₹137 Cr Indian Army order (Q1)
- Revenue Miss: ₹12.8 Cr vs ₹97 Cr (Q1 FY25)
- PAT: Loss of ₹23.6 Cr
- Burn Rate: Still nuclear
- IPO Funds: ₹567 Cr fully tracked & deployed as per Q1 audit
- Major Issue: Execution delays + delivery cycles = timing mismatch in P&L
- Govt Push: Drone Shakti, Make-in-India, MSME incentives
- Tech edge acknowledged globally → Ranked 3rd worldwide in dual-use drones
7. Balance Sheet
| Metric | FY25 (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| Equity Capital | ₹43 Cr |
| Reserves | ₹566 Cr |
| Borrowings | ₹16 Cr |
| Total Liabilities | ₹672 Cr |
| Fixed Assets + CWIP | ₹197 Cr |
| Investments | ₹120 Cr |
| Other Assets | ₹355 Cr |
Key Takeaways:
- Largely debt-free
- Huge reserves = IPO funds sitting in books
- Capex-heavy (R&D + infra buildup)
- Still room for runway (pun intended)
8. Cash Flow – Sab Number Game Hai
| Year | CFO | CFI | CFF | Net Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | ₹-53 Cr | ₹-149 Cr | ₹176 Cr | ₹-26 Cr |
| FY24 | ₹76 Cr | ₹-102 Cr | ₹189 Cr | ₹164 Cr |
| FY25 | ₹-77 Cr | ₹-68 Cr | ₹-8 Cr | ₹-152 Cr |
Interpretation:
- FY24 got IPO money
- FY25 started bleeding again
- Working capital, inventory and delays creating cash blockages
9. Ratios – Sexy or Stressy?
| Ratio | FY25 |
|---|---|
| ROCE | -9.69% |
| ROE | -10.3% |
| OPM | -32% |
| EPS | ₹-14.46 |
| Debtor Days | 127 |
| Inventory Days | 312 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 410 |
Verdict:
Stressed. Like a drone running on low battery 3 km from home.
10. P&L Breakdown – Show Me the Money
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | PAT | EPS | OPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | ₹159 Cr | ₹75 Cr | ₹44 Cr | ₹4,862.98* | 47% |
| FY23 | ₹186 Cr | ₹48 Cr | ₹32 Cr | ₹14.99 | 26% |
| FY24 | ₹314 Cr | ₹57 Cr | ₹45 Cr | ₹10.56 | 18% |
| FY25 | ₹161 Cr | ₹-52 Cr | ₹-62 Cr | ₹-14.46 | -32% |
| TTM | ₹88 Cr | ₹-74 Cr | ₹-87 Cr | ₹-20.19 | -85% |
*Note: EPS spike in FY22 due to pre-IPO share base
11. Peer Comparison
| Company | Market Cap | ROCE | OPM | EPS | PAT TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zen Tech | ₹17,158 Cr | 36.7% | 38.3% | ₹101.05 | ₹280 Cr |
| Data Patterns | ₹15,723 Cr | 21.0% | 38.8% | ₹114.08 | ₹215 Cr |
| Astra Microwave | ₹9,381 Cr | 19.1% | 25.6% | ₹73.49 | ₹153 Cr |
| Ideaforge | ₹2,354 Cr | -9.69% | -85% | ₹-20.19 | ₹-87 Cr |
Conclusion:
They’re building something different, but profit-wise, they’re not in the same orbit as these players — yet.
12. Miscellaneous – Shareholding, Promoters
| Holder | % (Jun 2025) |
|---|---|
| Promoter | 29.10% |
| FII | 0.60% |
| DII | 1.51% |
| Public | 68.81% |
| Shareholders | 1.92 lakh |
Key Issues:
- Promoter stake is just 29.1% — low for a tech-defense play
- FII/DII both have reduced exposure
- Retail is carrying the drone — high risk, high conviction play
13. EduInvesting Verdict™
Ideaforge isn’t just a stock — it’s a venture-stage drone bet listed on public markets. This is India’s Palantir meets DJI, minus the profits.
- India’s #1 drone player
- Tech moat is real
- Execution lagging + orders front-loaded
- If you believe in drones, defense-tech & Bharat narrative — watch closely
- If you believe in cash flows — maybe wait
EduInvesting Verdict™:
Drone army is coming. But Ideaforge needs to stop bombing its own P&L first.
Metadata
– Written by EduInvesting Team | July 23, 2025
– Tags: Ideaforge, Drones, Defense Tech, Army Contracts, Loss-making Tech, Smallcap Defense
