🧪 At a Glance
Adani Wilmar Ltd reported a decent-looking Q1FY26 with ₹18,230 Cr in revenue (+21% YoY) and ₹191 Cr net profit (+1% YoY). But behind those big fat FMCG numbers lies a story of edible oil pressure, quick commerce sugar rush, and a valuation still hungover from IPO dreams.
🥜 1. “Sabhyata ke saath tel bhi badal gaya”
Adani Wilmar is the cozy FMCG+Agri spawn of Adani Group and Wilmar International, with an edible oil empire under the “Fortune” brand. But this isn’t your old-school commodity play — they’re trying hard to shed that “tel-wala” tag and become a premium grocery brand.
Too bad margins and ROEs didn’t get the memo.
📊 2. Q1FY26 Highlights – Let’s Talk Numbers (And OPM Tears)
| Metric | Q1 FY26 | Q1 FY25 | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹18,230 Cr | ₹15,000 Cr* | ~+21% |
| Volume (est.) | ↓ 4% | — | Declined |
| Operating Profit | ₹448 Cr | ₹357 Cr | +25% |
| OPM | 2.4% | 2.4% | Flat 😶 |
| Net Profit | ₹191 Cr | ₹190 Cr | +0.5% |
*Base: Q1FY25 revenue calculated backward from 21% YoY growth
TL;DR:
- Sales up ✅
- Margins flat ❌
- Net profit? Nominal bump, not even enough to buy basmati rice at BigBasket premium.
🏷️ 3. Segment Check – What’s Cooking?
🥄 Edible Oils
- The cash cow… is now just a cow.
- Weak demand + high base + global price pressure = No fireworks.
🧁 Food & FMCG
- Ghee, atta, sugar: Gained traction, especially through quick commerce (Blinkit, Zepto).
- Double-digit growth here, but contributes much less to topline.
🌾 Industry Essentials / Exports
- Bulk oil and exports held up surprisingly well.
- Strong traction in rice exports to Middle East & Africa.
🧠 4. Margins Still Missing – OPM Refuses to Rise
Operating margins remain the biggest issue:
- OPM stuck at 2.4%
- Not even close to Marico (19.7%) or HUL (22%+)
- Every ₹100 sold gives just ₹2.4 to play with
In FMCG land, this is called “bhikari margins.”
🧾 5. Valuation – Fortune or Fiction?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | ₹34,200 Cr |
| TTM P/E | ~28x |
| FY25 EPS | ₹9.43 |
| Book Value | ₹72.5 |
| CMP | ₹263 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.63x |
👀 Peer Watch:
- Patanjali Foods – P/E 45x, but has more brand + better EBITDA
- Marico – P/E 58x, but 8x better margin and ROE
- AWL – Trying hard to get there, but still stuck between oil tankers and biscuits
🧮 Fair Value Range (EduInvesting Estimate™):
- Base case: ₹175 (20x FY26E EPS of ₹8.75)
- Bull case: ₹240 (22x on FMCG optimism + OPM rebound)
🧂 6. Other Spicy Highlights
- 📉 Volume declined by 4%, despite 21% revenue growth (inflation, anyone?)
- 🛒 Quick Commerce Surge: Blinkit, Zepto, Instamart bringing in GenZ ghee buyers
- 💸 No dividend again — cash hoarding or growth capex?
- 📉 Public shareholding down to 12% – promoters still control 74.36%
🏋️♂️ 7. Balance Sheet Biryani
- Debt reduced from ₹2,628 Cr (FY24) → ₹1,937 Cr (FY25) ✅
- Net worth rising slowly, reserves at ₹9,294 Cr
- No dividend payout since IPO — cash flows being reinvested (hopefully, not in airports)
🤑 8. Cash Flow Chat
- FY25 CFO: ₹2,150 Cr (finally a positive)
- Capex: ₹278 Cr → modest but consistent
- FCF positive after 2 years of “chalo plant lagate hain”
🔢 9. Ratio Ka Reality Check
| Metric | Value FY25 |
|---|---|
| ROE | 13.9% |
| ROCE | 20.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.2x |
| Inventory Days | 56 |
| CCC | 14 Days |
Stable ratios. But margins? Still playing hide & seek.
📦 10. Peer Comparison Snapshot
| Company | OPM % | ROE % | P/E | Sales (Cr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Wilmar | 3.9 | 13.9 | 27.8x | 63,672 |
| Marico | 19.7 | 41.7 | 58x | 10,831 |
| Patanjali Foods | 5.7 | 12.1 | 45.6x | 34,157 |
| Gokul Agro | 2.7 | 26.9 | 18.9x | 19,551 |
AWL is large in sales, but lagging in margin and premiumisation.
🧑⚖️ EduInvesting Verdict™
AWL’s Q1FY26 looks good on surface: revenue up, profit stable, cash flows improving.
But let’s not get carried away.
- Margins are still miserable
- Stock is not cheap vs peers
- FMCG dream is still under construction
Unless OPM hits 6%+ and Food biz becomes the hero, this is more “Fortune Basmati” than “Fortune 500.”
✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 July 8, 2025
Tags: Adani Wilmar, FMCG stocks, Q1FY26, edible oil, quick commerce, Zepto, Blinkit, Fortune brand, IPO valuations, margin pressure, no dividend, stock analysis India
