1. ⚡ At a Glance
TCPL Packaging Ltd is India’s largest paperboard folding carton manufacturer — and it’s not playing around. From FMCG wrappers to blister packs and now flexible packaging, it’s vertically integrating, acquiring, expanding, and (of course) printing money. PAT has grown 31% CAGR over 5 years. FY25 EPS? ₹155.24. Dividend payout? Decent. Stock is up 46% in 1 year, and yet — it’s still trading at just 23.8x P/E.
2. 🎬 Introduction with Hook
When was the last time you looked at the packaging of your toothpaste and thought, “Yo, this is a multibagger?”
That’s TCPL Packaging for you:
- India’s go-to player for folding cartons & shelf-ready packaging
- 🧃 Packages everything from soap to spirits
- 🏭 Added greenfield Chennai plant + gravure cylinder facility in FY25
- ⚙️ 3-year EPS growth of 62% CAGR
This company doesn’t need fancy narratives. It just delivers.
3. 💼 Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
TCPL operates in printed & sustainable packaging, mainly:
- Folding cartons: For FMCG, pharma, food, tobacco
- Litho-lamination & plastic cartons
- Blister packs & shelf-ready packaging
- Flexible packaging (films, labels, cork-tipping paper)
Revenue is diversified, with exports + domestic demand, and long-term clients like ITC, HUL, Colgate, Nestlé, etc.
They’re essentially the backstage crew of consumer brands.
4. 📈 Financials Overview – Profit, Margins, ROE, Growth
| Metric | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 1,432 | 1,486 | 1,696 |
| Net Profit (₹ Cr) | 118 | 107 | 141 |
| ROE | 24% | 23% | 23.8% |
| OPM | 16% | 17% | 17% |
🟢 3Y PAT CAGR = 43%
🟢 5Y PAT CAGR = 31%
🟢 ROCE >20% consistently
🟢 Dividend payout = ~19%
5. 💸 Valuation – Is It Cheap, Meh, or Crack?
- CMP: ₹3,688
- EPS FY25: ₹155.24
- P/E: 23.8x
- Book Value: ₹713 → P/B = 5.17
EduFair™ Value Range:
Assuming normalized growth and steady margins:
- EPS Base = ₹155
- Fair P/E = 22–26
- FV Range = ₹3,410 – ₹4,030
✅ Current Price: ₹3,688
🎯 Close to upper-mid range, pricing in growth but not exuberance.
6. 🍛 What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
- 🟢 FY25 PAT grew 44% YoY
- 🏭 New gravure cylinder facility via ATPL acquisition (May 2025)
- 🌱 Carbon neutrality target: 2040
- 🏗️ Greenfield Chennai plant commissioned (March 2025)
- ✅ NCLT approved amalgamation with TCPL Innofilms
🔄 TCPL is in aggressive integration mode — upstream + downstream.
7. 🧾 Balance Sheet – How Much Debt, How Many Dreams?
| Metric | FY25 |
|---|---|
| Net Worth | ₹649 Cr |
| Borrowings | ₹614 Cr |
| D/E Ratio | ~0.94 |
| Fixed Assets | ₹709 Cr |
| CWIP | ₹59 Cr |
| Investments | ₹53 Cr |
🟡 Debt-funded expansion — but under control
🟢 Assets deployed for revenue — not vanity capex
8. 💵 Cash Flow – Sab Number Game Hai
| Year | CFO | CFI | CFF | Net CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | ₹119 Cr | ₹-101 Cr | ₹-18 Cr | ₹-1 Cr |
| FY24 | ₹225 Cr | ₹-157 Cr | ₹-66 Cr | ₹3 Cr |
| FY25 | ₹140 Cr | ₹-157 Cr | ₹+19 Cr | ₹2 Cr |
🟢 Consistent positive operating cash
🟠 Investing cash = capex + acquisitions
🟡 Leverage rising, but supported by free cash
9. 📊 Ratios – Sexy or Stressy?
| Ratio | FY25 | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 23.8% | 🔥 Excellent |
| ROCE | 20.2% | 🔥 Solid |
| OPM | 17% | ✅ Steady climb |
| D/E | 0.94 | 🟡 Monitor |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 94 days | 🟡 Slightly long |
| EPS Growth (3Y) | 62% CAGR | 🧨 Explosive |
Not SaaS margins, but for packaging? These are elite.
10. 🧮 P&L Breakdown – Show Me the Money
- Revenue: ₹1,696 Cr
- EBITDA: ₹286 Cr
- Net Profit: ₹141 Cr
- EPS: ₹155.24
- Tax Rate: 18%
- Dividend: ~₹30/share (~0.8% yield)
Nothing volatile, everything compoundable.
11. ⚔️ Peer Comparison – Who Else in the Game?
| Company | P/E | ROE | OPM | Rev (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPL Ltd | 20.9 | 16.2% | 19.8% | 4,213 |
| AGI Greenpac | 16.1 | 16.5% | 24.3% | 2,529 |
| Cosmo First | 22.4 | 9.5% | 9.9% | 2,895 |
| TCPL | 23.8 | 23.8% | 17% | 1,696 |
🟢 TCPL scores on ROE + margins
🟡 Slightly higher P/E, but justifiably so
🔴 Still mid-size compared to leaders
12. 🧬 Miscellaneous – Shareholding, Promoters
- 👑 Promoters: 55.74%
- 🏦 DII: 11.55% (Rising!)
- 🌍 FII: 1.18%
- 🧍 Public: 31.32%
- 🚀 Retail base = 16,185 shareholders (growing)
No dilution, clean governance, and increasing DII confidence.
13. 🧑⚖️ EduInvesting Verdict™
TCPL is not a hype stock. It’s a:
“Do the boring stuff, quietly scale 10x, and hand out ₹155 EPS while nobody’s watching” story.
With:
✅ Consistent profit compounding
✅ Strategic capex + acquisitions
✅ Sector leadership
🟡 Some debt rise, but manageable
🟡 Fairly valued — no margin of safety, but also no froth
Verdict?
“It may package your shampoo sachets, but this business is all profit-per-square-inch.”
Fair Value Range = ₹3,410 – ₹4,030
Keep tracking quarterly margin trends and CWIP utilization.
✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 July 6, 2025
Tags: TCPL Packaging, Folding Cartons, Specialty Packaging, Flexible Packaging, Industrial Products, ROE Stocks, EduInvesting
