Neetu Yoshi FY26 Concall Decoded: Railway Parts Outfit Claims ₹350 Crore Peak Revenue While H1 FY27 Stays Flat
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1. Opening Hook
Neetu Yoshi just posted 44% revenue growth to ₹101 crore and a 53% jump in PAT to ₹25 crore—numbers that would make most SME foundries blush. But listen carefully to what’s not happening: the new ₹50-crore bogie plant, fired up in June 2026, isn’t yet pulling its weight. Management is guiding H1 FY27 flat, betting the entire ₹210–220 crore target lands in H2. The real story isn’t what’s done; it’s what they’ve promised to do by FY28 and whether the math holds up when three factories are supposedly running at full tilt.
2. At a Glance
Metric
Punchline
FY26 Revenue
₹101 Cr, 44% YoY. Two-plant era hasn’t begun.
FY26 PAT
₹25 Cr, 53% YoY. Tax benefit at 17.5% (vs 25% peer rate) doing heavy lifting.
FY27 Guidance
₹210–220 Cr. New plant ramps H2 only; H1 expected flat.
PAT Margin
25% target, same as FY26. Input costs rising; price-variation clauses holding the line.
Order Book
₹140–150 Cr, executable in FY27. 40% from govt, 60% private/track.
Peak Revenue (FY28)
₹350 Cr claimed. Old plant ₹110 Cr, new plant ₹200 Cr, track ₹60–70 Cr.
Receivables
Jumped to ₹32 Cr (FY25: ₹15 Cr). Rails paying late in Feb–Mar; half cleared by mid-April.
RDSO Approvals
25 products live; 15–20 in pipeline. H1 FY27 target for next batch.
3. Management’s Key Commentary
“Total income ₹101 crores, 44% up from last year.” → (Looks impressive until you realise the bogie plant wasn’t even live for most of it. FY27 will be the first full yeast-rise test.)
“PAT 25%, which we have committed to investors.” → (Translation: it’s a promise, not a law of physics. Raw material spikes are hitting EBITDA; 25% PAT survives only because price-variation clauses kick in post-tender. There’s a lag.)
“Plant is ready already. First invoices would be raised in the month of June.” → (The bogie facility opened June 2026. But RDSO sign-off is still pending. They can produce non-certified products this month; certified ones hit in July.)
“Revenue guidance for this current financial year around ₹210 crores, PAT margins of 25%.” → (Same guidance since the IPO prospectus. No revision despite a new ₹50-crore plant. Management is claiming H2 will make up for a flat H1—a bet on volume ramp-up in seven months.)
“Peak revenue from both plants approximately ₹340 crores, ₹350 crores. Next financial year.” → (This is FY28. Assumes new plant runs at full tilt, track section contributes ₹60–70 Cr, old plant holds ₹110 Cr. No headroom for delays or market wobbles.)
“There is a difference in private and government sector receivables. Many would ask the receivable cycle has increased. It is not the receivable cycle for us the company have increased.” → (Deflect and blame the calendar. Rails freeze funds late Feb–Mar, thaw in April. By mid-April, half of the March spike is gone. Fair point, but headline debtors ₹32 Cr is real until cash hits.)
“We are very positive about [demand]. Wagon industry would again go into hike now.” → (1 lakh wagon order is live. Bogie makers win. But margins on complete bogies slid from ₹3.25L to ₹2.70–2.80L per unit. “Hike” doesn’t mean price recovery—just order velocity.)
