1. 🧐 At a Glance
AGI Infra Ltd is one of those rare regional real estate companies that didn’t collapse under debt, didn’t dilute promoters to oblivion, and didn’t name their projects after Greek gods. With a killer ROE of 25.7%, a 5-year PAT CAGR of 35%, and a price chart that screams “Punjab ke DLF,” the question is — is AGI Infra undervalued… or overhyped in a low-RERA Punjab playground?
2. 🧱 What Do They Even Do?
- Real estate dev & construction based out of Jalandhar, Punjab 🏡
- Affordable + mid-income housing focus under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY)
- Projects include AGI Jalandhar Heights I–IV, Smart Homes, and now a swanky-sounding Prestige by AGI
- Completed 5,000+ residential units so far
- Business model: Own land, develop projects, sell flats, repeat with more borrowed money 😎
- Construction + development verticals are in-house – so they keep margins
3. 💰 Financials – The Stuff That Moves the Market
| Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (₹ Cr) | 110 | 197 | 240 | 292 | 325 |
| PAT (₹ Cr) | 17 | 36 | 48 | 52 | 67 |
| OPM % | 30% | 25% | 24% | 26% | 28% |
| ROE % | 6.9% | 14.9% | 19.7% | 21.3% | 25.7% |
| EPS (₹) | 6.93 | 14.93 | 19.72 | 21.35 | 27.29 |
- 🧨 Revenue tripled in 4 years
- 🪙 PAT up 4x since FY21
- ✅ ROE, ROCE, and EPS all pointing up
- 🔥 Stock is up 133% in 1 year. Punjab ain’t just farming now.
4. 🧮 Valuation – Is It Cheap, Meh, or Crack?
- CMP: ₹998
- Market Cap: ₹2,444 Cr
- P/E: 36.7x
- Book Value: ₹121 → P/B = 8.2x 😬
- ROE: 25.7% (saves it from a “bubble” tag)
🧠 Fair Value Estimate: FY26E EPS ₹34–36 @ Fair P/E 22–28x
FV Range: ₹750 – ₹1,000
The current price is already assuming another Jalandhar is built and sold by FY27 💸
5. 🔥 What’s Cooking?
- 🏢 Launched AGI Smart Homes-II Extension (23 floors, 368 units) – scaling up verticals
- 🏗️ New project “Prestige by AGI” – sounds fancy but still in Jalandhar 😛
- 📝 RERA approvals in place, construction orders worth ₹16 Cr announced in June 2025
- 🎖️ Awarded in Forbes Asia’s “Best Under a Billion” – and no, not the meme list
- 🚀 Listed on NSE in July 2024 – more visibility, more liquidity, more retailer heartbreak potential
6. 🧾 Balance Sheet – How Much Debt, How Many Dreams?
| Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borrowings (₹ Cr) | 52 | 42 | 49 | 138 | 137 |
| Reserves (₹ Cr) | 79 | 114 | 160 | 212 | 283 |
| Total Liabilities (₹ Cr) | 488 | 610 | 759 | 1,080 | 1,196 |
| Fixed Assets (₹ Cr) | 49 | 122 | 171 | 252 | 276 |
- Debt nearly tripled in 2 years → funding growth or building risk? 🤔
- But coverage looks safe for now
7. 💵 Cash Flow – Sab Number Game Hai
| Year | CFO (₹ Cr) | CFI (₹ Cr) | CFF (₹ Cr) | Net Flow (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | ₹67 | -₹54 | ₹1 | ₹14 |
| FY24 | ₹61 | -₹88 | ₹81 | ₹55 |
| FY25 | -₹20 | -₹39 | -₹14 | -₹73 |
- FY25 cash flow went into a coma 🧟 – heavy capex, working capital, or land stocking?
- Burn 🔥 expected in real estate, but needs monitoring
8. 📐 Ratios – Sexy or Stressy?
| Ratio | FY25 |
|---|---|
| ROE | 25.7% |
| ROCE | 21.8% |
| OPM | 28% |
| Working Cap | 131 days |
| Debtor Days | 2 days |
| Inventory Days | 1,729 🤯 |
| Payables Days | 35 |
- Inventory Days screaming “Basera Ban Raha Hai” 🏗️
- Short receivables → strong collections
- Long inventory cycle = long construction cycle = revenue lags
9. 📊 P&L Breakdown – Show Me the Money
| Year | Revenue (₹ Cr) | OPM % | EBIT (₹ Cr) | PAT (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | ₹197 | 25% | ₹49 | ₹36 | ₹14.93 |
| FY23 | ₹240 | 24% | ₹59 | ₹48 | ₹19.72 |
| FY24 | ₹292 | 26% | ₹76 | ₹52 | ₹21.35 |
| FY25 | ₹325 | 28% | ₹93 | ₹67 | ₹27.29 |
- Margins improving steadily ✅
- EPS growth not just linear, but compounding nicely 🚀
10. 🥊 Peer Comparison – Who Else Is in the Game?
| Company | P/E | ROE % | OPM % | FY25 Sales (₹ Cr) | Market Cap (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLF | 45x | 11.2% | 26.4% | ₹7,994 | ₹2,06,973 |
| Lodha (Macrotech) | 49x | 14.7% | 28.9% | ₹13,779 | ₹1,36,542 |
| Oberoi Realty | 31x | 14.7% | 58.7% | ₹5,286 | ₹67,952 |
| AGI Infra | 37x | 25.7% | 28.0% | ₹325 | ₹2,444 |
Conclusion: Among microcaps, AGI Infra punches like a midcap. But it’s still playing on home turf.
11. 🧩 Miscellaneous – Shareholding & News Nuggets
- 👨👨👧👦 Promoters: Solid at 72.95% (unchanged for 3 years)
- 🌍 FIIs/DIIs: Just entered in FY25 (FIIs now at 0.56%) – first wave
- 🧾 Corporate Actions: Stock split 1:2 approved Dec 2024
- 🏆 Won Forbes Asia recognition (Best Under a Billion club)
12. 👨⚖️ EduInvesting Verdict™
AGI Infra isn’t just building flats — it’s building hype, scale, and shareholder value (at least for now). But let’s be honest:
- The market is pricing Punjab’s DLF moment
- ROE/ROCE/margin combo is rare in real estate
- But high inventory, high promoter holding, and sharp valuation multiples mean the runway isn’t infinite
For now, it’s got the tailwinds. But will the cranes keep swinging post-2027?
🎯 Fair Value Range: ₹750 – ₹1,000
(Based on FY26E EPS of ₹34–36 and P/E range of 22–28x)
✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 July 5, 2025
Tags: AGI Infra, Real Estate Stocks, Punjab Housing, Microcap Multibaggers, Construction Sector, NSE Mainboard, Value Stocks, Affordable Housing, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, EduInvesting
