At a Glance
NTPC Ltd, India’s largest power generator, has quietly lit up ₹3.18 lakh crore in market cap while the rest of the world obsesses over solar panels and Tesla batteries. With ₹188,000 Cr in annual revenue and ₹24,000 Cr in PAT, the PSU behemoth is still printing free cash, giving dividends, and expanding into green energy — all while charging your AC this summer. But is this slow-moving giant still undervalued or just… outdated?
🏭 1. What Does NTPC Actually Do?
Spoiler: It does everything — and more.
NTPC (National Thermal Power Corporation) is:
- 🇮🇳 India’s #1 power generator with ~76.6 GW capacity across thermal, hydro, solar, and wind
- A quasi-monopoly in base-load generation (coal-based)
- Running diversified arms like:
- NTPC Green Energy (renewables)
- Coal mining subsidiaries
- Power trading via NVVN
- Consulting, EPC, and project management
Basically, this PSU is the Sabyasachi of power — making, designing, selling, and styling electricity.
📊 2. 5-Year Financial Performance
Let’s plug into the numbers 🔌
| FY | Revenue (₹ Cr) | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | OPM (%) | EPS (₹) | Dividend Payout (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 | 1,11,531 | 14,969 | 31% | 15.09 | 41% |
| FY22 | 1,32,669 | 16,960 | 30% | 17.20 | 41% |
| FY23 | 1,76,207 | 17,121 | 27% | 17.44 | 42% |
| FY24 | 1,78,501 | 21,332 | 29% | 21.46 | 36% |
| FY25 | 1,88,138 | 23,953 | 29% | 24.16 | 35% |
🧠 TL;DR:
- Revenue CAGR (5Y): 11%
- PAT CAGR (5Y): 18%
- EPS grew from ₹15 → ₹24
- Keeps paying ~35–40% dividends despite massive capex
🏗️ 3. Growth Engine: Where is NTPC Investing?
NTPC isn’t sleeping on its coal piles. It’s electrifying the future:
💰 Capex & Debt
- FY25 Capex: ₹30,000+ Cr planned (via ₹18,000 Cr NCDs just approved)
- Gross debt: ₹2.5 lakh Cr
- Leverage? High, but manageable because cash from ops = ₹50,000 Cr+
☀️ Green Ambitions
- NTPC Green Energy Ltd (NGEL) now owns the company’s solar assets
- Target: 60 GW renewable by 2032 (from ~3 GW now)
- Even international projects in Namibia, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh
🤡 PSU Joke: NTPC has more solar projects than the combined rooftop panels in all Delhi RWAs.
🥊 4. Competition: PSU Dad vs ESG Kids
| Company | P/E | ROCE (%) | Dividend Yield | FY25 PAT (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTPC | 13.6 | 10.8 | 2.35% | 23,953 |
| Adani Green | 96 | 8.7 | 0% | 383 |
| JSW Energy | 49 | 6.5 | 0.4% | 414 |
| NHPC | 28 | 7.4 | 2.2% | 920 |
| SJVN | 47 | 4.9 | 1.8% | -128 |
| NLC India | 12 | 10.7 | 1.3% | 468 |
🧨 Verdict:
- NTPC is the profit tank: highest profit, best yield, and lowest P/E
- Valuation gap with Adani Green? Ridiculous
- ROCE is still meh, but it’s improving as new green assets kick in
💼 5. Shareholding & Institutional Trust
| Category | Mar 2020 | Mar 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Promoters | 51.1% | 51.1% |
| FIIs | 11% | 17.8% |
| DIIs | 32% | 27.2% |
| Public | 6% | 3.8% |
🎯 FII confidence up by ~7% in 5 years. Clearly, global funds love dependable PSUs with fat dividends.
💸 6. Fair Value (FV) Range
Let’s do a simple valuation:
Assumptions:
- FY26E EPS = ₹28 (conservative growth)
- P/E range: 11x to 14x (PSU base case to re-rating)
🔍 FV Range = ₹308 to ₹392
| Scenario | EPS (FY26E) | P/E | FV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | ₹28 | 11x | ₹308 |
| Base | ₹28 | 12.5x | ₹350 |
| Bull | ₹28 | 14x | ₹392 |
📍At CMP ₹330, NTPC is trading in the middle of the band — not a steal, not a bubble. Safe for long-term dividend lovers, but don’t expect it to double overnight.
⚡ 7. EduInvesting Take
NTPC is like that old inverter in your house — doesn’t look flashy, but never lets the lights go out.
- ✅ Consistent EPS and dividend growth
- ✅ Largest power producer with cost advantage
- ✅ Valuation still reasonable despite run-up
- ❌ Slow renewables transition
- ❌ Heavy debt from capex expansion
If PSU is the theme, NTPC is still the king. But don’t expect solar-powered multibagger fireworks.
✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 June 24, 2025
Tags: NTPC, PSU stocks, green energy, power sector, dividend stocks, undervalued PSU, energy transition, NTPC Green, EduInvesting Recap
