At a Glance
Once a poster child of India’s renewable dreams, Orient Green Power Ltd has spent over a decade trying to turn wind into wealth. After years of bleeding losses, the company has cleaned up its debt, squeaked out modest profits, and re-entered the solar fray. But is it still worth your watts?
🌬️ The Windy Beginning: Hope, Hype & Heavy Losses
- Incorporated in 2006, Orient Green Power positioned itself as India’s largest independent renewable power producer.
- Focused on wind energy (with past presence in biomass), its plants span Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Gujarat and more.
- The initial years? “Renewable” was synonymous with “regular losses”:
- Between FY14 and FY20, the company lost over ₹2,000 Cr in equity erosion, thanks to high interest, poor scale economics, and negligible tariff hikes.
🌌 The 5-Year Redemption Arc (Sort Of)
Let’s look at their financial resurrection attempt:
| Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 257 | 311 | 258 | 259 | 263 |
| Net Profit (₹ Cr) | -57 | 36 | 33 | 38 | 42 |
| OPM (%) | 64% | 72% | 66% | 68% | 64% |
| ROCE (%) | 4% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% |
| Debt (₹ Cr) | 1,327 | 1,238 | 1,091 | 754 | 552 |
Verdict?
- The debt cleanup is commendable (down 58% in 5 years).
- OPM still strong due to high-margin wind operations.
- But ROCE is stuck at 6-7%, below India’s risk-free rate. Translation: shareholders would have made more in a boring FD.
📊 Revenue Flat, Hopes Inflated
- Revenue growth has been a flatline, with just 2% YoY increase.
- This despite solar buzz, EPC announcements, and green tailwinds.
- Their recent ₹40 Cr EPC solar project in Tamil Nadu (7 MW capacity) is a step, but barely moves the needle.
🚭 Promoter Dilution: Who’s Selling the Dream?
| Quarter | Promoter Holding |
|---|---|
| Jun 2022 | 34.5% |
| Jun 2023 | 32.5% |
| Mar 2024 | 26.9% |
| Mar 2025 | 24.4% |
- Promoters have dumped 10% stake in the last 3 years.
- Retail now holds a massive 73.5%, but that’s not a sign of trust. It’s a sign of over-the-counter hopium.
📉 Valuation: Windy PE at 45x
- Orient Green is trading at a PE of 44.6x and Price/Book of 1.5x.
- That’s higher than NTPC (PE ~13x) and close to JSW Energy.
- But NTPC & JSW have 10x the cash flows and infra depth.
- So is OGPL overpriced? Well…
🌟 Fair Value Range Calculation:
Assuming:
- Sustainable PAT = ₹42 Cr
- Ideal PE = 18x (avg for small utilities with low growth)
- FV = ₹42 Cr × 18 = ₹756 Cr
- Shares = ~117 Cr
Fair Value per Share = ₹756 / 117 = ₹6.4 to ₹8.5 range (if we add EPC optionality).
Current Price: ₹13.7 — overvalued by 40-50%.
🌕 Bottom Line: No More Power to the People?
- OGPL has escaped the ICU, but is still crawling.
- Profits are slim, growth is slower than government file approvals, and valuations are windier than their turbines.
- Unless EPC surprises scale rapidly, this stock may just be a case of “clean energy, dirty returns”.
✍️ Written by Prashant | 🗓️ June 19, 2025
