At a glance:
KPI Green Energy has gone from ₹34 crore in revenue in FY19 to ₹1,735 crore in FY25. That’s a 97% sales CAGR, 118% profit CAGR, and a solar empire built under the ‘Solarism’ brand. But wait — 45.5% of promoter shares are pledged. So is this a green energy multibagger or just greenwashed leverage?
🏢 About the Company
- Incorporated: 2008
- Group: KP Group
- Business Model: Dual verticals
- Independent Power Producer (IPP)
- Captive Power Producer (CPP) – services under the ‘Solarism’ brand
- Assets: Operates solar + hybrid (wind-solar) power facilities
- Group Co’s: KP Energy Ltd, KP Green Engineering, KPF Green Hydrogen & Ammonia Tech, etc.
👥 Key Managerial Highlights
- Promoter Holding:
- FY22: 54.81%
- FY25: 48.78%
- 🔐 45.5% of promoter shares are pledged — huge red flag
- FII Holding:
- Up from 3.26% to 8.05%
- Shareholders:
- 17,000 → 3.2 lakh (2022–2025) = Retail army has arrived
📊 5-Year Financial Performance
| Year | Revenue (₹ Cr) | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | OPM (%) | ROCE (%) | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 | 102 | 22 | 57% | 16% | 1.35 |
| FY22 | 230 | 43 | 47% | 20% | 2.66 |
| FY23 | 644 | 110 | 32% | 25% | 6.74 |
| FY24 | 1,024 | 162 | 33% | 22% | 8.94 |
| FY25 | 1,735 | 325 | 32% | 18% | 16.23 |
FY19–FY25 CAGR:
- Revenue: 97%
- Profit: 118%
- Stock Price: 192% (5 years)
🧮 Forward Fair Value (FV) Estimate (EduInvesting Style™)
Let’s use FY25 EPS = ₹16.23
CMP = ₹518
PE = ~31.9x
Industry PE Range:
- Adani Green = 100x
- NTPC = 14x
- KPI = Mid-range
Assuming rerating or derating based on debt & pledges:
🎯 Fair Value Range = ₹600 – ₹720 (next 12–18 months)
(Assumes 20–25% growth + slight rerating if pledge risk drops)
⚡ What’s Powering KPI Green?
🚀 1. Explosive Sales Growth
- Revenue up 76x in 6 years
- Profit up 36x in same time
🧱 2. Asset-Heavy Model
- Fixed assets grew from ₹84 Cr (FY19) → ₹2,361 Cr (FY25)
- CWIP at ₹163 Cr = future capacity already building up
- Borrowings: ₹1,475 Cr — but net cash flow = ₹427 Cr last year
🌞 3. MoUs with Delta Electronics
- 1 GW inverters, Battery Energy Storage (BESS), green hydrogen & EV infra
- This is serious capex + credibility from a global tech partner
👁️ 4. Institutional Radar
- FIIs almost tripled stake in 3 years
- Despite pledge issue, institutions seem bullish on growth
📉 Risks & Red Flags 🚨
| Risk Type | Red Flag |
|---|---|
| 🔒 Pledges | 45.5% of promoter holding pledged |
| 🧾 Debt | ₹1,475 Cr in borrowings, up 3x in 3 years |
| 🧨 Volatility | Stock fell 14% in 1 year despite 2x profit jump |
| 🧮 Accounting | Interest capitalization suspected |
| 🛑 ROCE Down | 25% → 18% in 2 years = efficiency slipping |
🧾 Balance Sheet Evolution (FY21 → FY25)
| Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital (₹ Cr) | 18 | 18 | 36 | 60 | 98 |
| Reserves (₹ Cr) | 102 | 136 | 222 | 775 | 2,511 |
| Borrowings (₹ Cr) | 240 | 446 | 676 | 1,036 | 1,475 |
| Fixed Assets (₹ Cr) | 244 | 482 | 801 | 979 | 2,361 |
Explosive growth, but debt-fueled. Sustainability depends on execution + cost control.
🧠 EduInvesting Take
KPI Green is the smallcap Adani Green that doesn’t shout slogans. Instead, it quietly scales solar power, rakes in real profits, and locks in MoUs like a veteran. But the pledged promoter holding is the giant elephant in this shiny green room.
If they can reduce leverage, unwind pledges, and scale their MoUs without margin compression — this stock could cross ₹700. If not, the sun may set faster than expected.
🏁 TL;DR Recap
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CMP | ₹518 |
| FY25 Net Profit | ₹325 Cr |
| EPS (FY25) | ₹16.23 |
| PE Ratio | 31.7x |
| ROCE | 18% |
| Promoter Holding | 48.78% (Pledged: 45.5%) |
| FII Holding | 8.05% |
| Fair Value Estimate | ₹600 – ₹720 |
| MoU | Delta (1 GW + BESS + EV Infra) |
| Retail Shareholders | 3.2 Lakh |
Tags: KPI Green Energy Ltd, KPIGREEN Stock Analysis, Renewable Energy Multibagger, Solarism Brand, Green Hydrogen India, KP Group Solar, EduInvesting Recap, Promoter Pledge Risk, Power Sector India 2025
Author: Prashant Marathe
Date: June 11, 2025
