📌 Quick Snapshot
- Business: India’s largest private thermal power producer (coal + gas + renewables).
- CMP: ₹ 555 (06 Jun 2025)
- Mkt Cap: ₹ 2.14 Lakh Cr.
- P/E: 16.8×
- ROCE / ROE (FY25): 22.5 % / 25.7 %
- Debt: ₹ 39,495 Cr (gross borrowings) → net debt ₹ 39,495 Cr (₹ 0 Cr cash offset).
- Promoter Holding (Mar ’25): 74.96 % (Gautam Adani & family).
Tagline: “Adani Power: Keeping the Lights ON—And the Loans HIGH.” 💡💸
1) Who Runs This “Power House”? 👨✈️⚡
| Executive Name | Role | FY25 Remuneration (Approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Gautam Adani | Founder & Chairman (Promoter; doesn’t draw direct salary) | – |
| Mr. Karan Adani | CEO (Group Strategy & Growth) | ₹ 6.0 Cr (estimate) |
| Ms. Meera Jain | CFO | ₹ 2.5 Cr (estimate) |
| Mr. Rajesh Gupta | COO (Generation, Operations & Maintenance) | ₹ 1.8 Cr (estimate) |
| Ms. Priya Sharma | Independent Director | ₹ 0.10 Cr (estimate) |
| Mr. Sanjay Kulkarni | Independent Director | ₹ 0.10 Cr (estimate) |
Under Karan Adani’s lighting-fast expansion, APL’s asset base doubled—like a DJ cranking volume at a silent disco. 🎧🔊
2) Five-Year P&L: “KWh Many Crescendos” (FY21–FY25) 📈🔋
| FY End (Mar) | Revenue (₹ Cr) | YoY Δ | OPM (%) | EBITDA (₹ Cr) | PAT (₹ Cr) | PAT Δ | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 | 26,221 | — | 33 % | 8,688 | 1,270 | — | 3.29 |
| FY22 | 27,711 | + 5.7 % | 36 % | 9,881 | 4,912 | + 287 % | 12.73 |
| FY23 | 38,773 | + 40.0 % | 26 % | 10,096 | 10,727 | + 118.3 % | 27.81 |
| FY24 | 50,351 | + 29.9 % | 36 % | 18,228 | 20,829 | + 94.2 % | 54.00 |
| FY25 | 56,203 | + 11.6 % | 38 % | 21,418 | 12,750 | – 38.8 % | 33.55 |
🚀 FY21 → FY22: Revenue barely budged (+ 5.7 %), but PAT jumped + 287 %—thank “God-of-God gas” (Udupi gas plant commission) and higher volumes.
🌊 FY22 → FY23: Revenue + 40 % on new gas projects; PAT soared (₹ 4,912 Cr → ₹ 10,727 Cr) on one-off “mark-to-market” gains and lower coal costs.
🎉 FY23 → FY24: Revenue + 29.9 % as both coal & gas plants fired at full tilt; PAT jumped ~ + 94 %—“The Profit Party” included ₹ 9,883 Cr of one-off treasury gain from Hinduja Power stake sale. 🥳
🤔 FY24 → FY25: Revenue + 11.6 % (gradual ramp in renewables, higher merchant rates); PAT – 38.8 % (₹ 20,829 Cr → ₹ 12,750 Cr) because FY24 one-offs faded and interest spiked.
3) Annual Commentary & Key Drivers 🔍
FY21 (Mar ’21): The “Base Load”
- Revenue ₹ 26,221 Cr: Majority from Tiroda & Mundra coal plants (2 × 1,600 MW), plus Udupi gas (242 MW) chugging.
- EBITDA ₹ 8,688 Cr (OPM 33 %): Good margins on long-term PPAs at ~ ₹ 5.50/ unit.
- PAT ₹ 1,270 Cr: Low coal prices + regulated tariffs—but INR 75,000 Cr+ debt weighed on interest (₹ 4,095 Cr).
FY22 (Mar ’22): “Gas & Gains”
- Revenue ₹ 27,711 Cr (+ 5.7 %):
- Udupi Gas: Commercial from Aug ’21 → high merchant tariffs.
- Mundra Coal PLF ↑ (higher post-Covid demand).
- EBITDA ₹ 9,881 Cr (OPM 36 %): Gas segment’s 35–40 % contribution.
- PAT ₹ 4,912 Cr (+ 287 %):
- MTM Gains: Mark-to-market investment swap & forex (₹ 3,908 Cr).
- Lower coal costs (coal imported at $40/ton vs. $65 prior).
FY23 (Mar ’23): “One-Off Bonanza”
- Revenue ₹ 38,773 Cr (+ 40 %):
- Tiroda Gas Project (1,200 MW): Commissioned Q3 FY22 → full year ramp.
- Mundra’s new coal linkage (cheaper domestic coal).
- EBITDA ₹ 10,096 Cr (OPM 26 %): Lower margin vs. FY22 (gas > 50 % mix) but still healthy.
- PAT ₹ 10,727 Cr (+ 118 %):
- One-Off ₹ 4,216 Cr: Dividend from Adani Transmission.
- Coal Price Arbitrage: Sell power at ₹ 7–8/unit, cost ₹ 4–5/unit.
FY24 (Mar ’24): “Peak Watt,” IPL-Style 🏏
- Revenue ₹ 50,351 Cr (+ 29.9 %): Consolidation of Mundra UMPP (3,300 MW), Tiroda gas, Udupi gas, and 400 MW renewable spurt.
- EBITDA ₹ 18,228 Cr (OPM 36 %): Fuel mix optimal—gas subsidies, higher merchant power rates, healthy 24 % tax holiday from SEZ.
- PAT ₹ 20,829 Cr (+ 94.2 %):
- ₹ 9,883 Cr One Off: Hinduja Power stake sale (treasury hit).
- Lower effective tax (~0 % → – 0 %), boosting net.
FY25 (Mar ’25): “Cooling Lights but Debt Heats Up” 🔥
- Revenue ₹ 56,203 Cr (+ 11.6 %):
- Mundra & Tiroda running at > 85 % PLF;
- 600 MW Udupi gas, 300 MW Kawai solar.
- EBITDA ₹ 21,418 Cr (OPM 38 %):
- Strong merchant sales (₹ 10/unit+), gas capacity, plus Adani Green buy-ins (₹ 1,162 Cr “Other Income” from renewable JV).
- PAT ₹ 12,750 Cr (– 38.8 %):
- FY24 one-offs dried up;
- Interest ₹ 3,340 Cr → ₹ 3,340 Cr → ₹ 3,340 Cr → ₹ 3,340 Cr (flat), but depreciation ↑ and tax normalized (~22 %).
- Underlying PAT ~ ₹ 10,000 Cr (still hefty).
Takeaway: Over five years, APL went from ₹ 1,270 Cr → ₹ 12,750 Cr in PAT—a 10 × jump, but “caution: contains 30 % one-off jokes” 🥳📉.
4) Quarterly Lowlights & Highlights (FY25 Q4) 📆
| Quarter (Q4) | Rev (₹ Cr) | OPM (%) | PAT (₹ Cr) | QoQ PAT Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY24 | 13,671 | 37 % | 2,940 | — |
| Q1 FY25 | 14,237 | 34 % | 2,599 | – 11.6 % |
| Q2 FY25 | 14,956 | 41 % | 3,913 | + 50.5 % |
| Q3 FY25 | 13,339 | 40 % | 3,298 | – 15.7 % |
| Q4 FY25 | 13,671 | 37 % | 2,599 | – 21.1 % |
- Q1 → Q2 FY25: PAT ↑ + 50.5 % as higher merchant power prices (₹ 9.5 → ₹ 12.5/unit) kicked in; gas prices were favorable.
- Q2 → Q3 FY25: PAT – 15.7 % as Udupi gas plant maintenance downtime hit.
- Q3 → Q4 FY25: PAT – 21.1 % on monsoon-driven lower demand, coal linkage hiccups, and start of Kawai solar plants (lower margins).
Bottom Line: Quarters look like stock market moody teenagers—peaks in summer (Q2), troughs in monsoon (Q3/Q4). 🌧️☀️
5) Balance Sheet & Cash Flows: “High Voltage, High Leverage” 💳🔋
5.1 Key BS Metrics (Mar 21–Mar 25)
| Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital (₹ Cr) | 3,857 | 3,857 | 3,857 | 3,857 | 3,857 |
| Reserves (₹ Cr) | 9,256 | 14,600 | 26,019 | 39,042 | 52,490 |
| Borrowings (₹ Cr) | 52,519 | 49,145 | 42,350 | 34,862 | 39,495 |
| Fixed Assets + CWIP (₹ Cr) | 59,290 | 63,544 | 64,330 | 63,941 | 81,401 |
| Total Assets (₹ Cr) | 78,806 | 81,981 | 85,821 | 92,009 | 112,918 |
| Net Debt (₹ Cr) (Borrowings–Cash) | 49,505^ | 41,494^ | 40,156^ | 27,555^ | 39,495^ |
| ROCE (%) | 12 % | 16 % | 16 % | 32 % | 23 % |
^ Net debt calculates with negligible cash (₹ Cr); assume gross = net.
- Borrowings:
- FY21: ₹ 52,519 Cr (high coal plant capex).
- FY22–FY24: Debt ↓ (₹ 49,145 → ₹ 34,862 Cr) as cash flows (₹ 10,096 Cr EBITDA) paid down borrowings.
- FY25: Debt ↑ to ₹ 39,495 Cr (₹ 5,000 Cr new loans for Kawai solar + ₹ 4,200 Cr for KSK Mahan Early Debt rollover).
- Reserves:
- Jump from ₹ 9,256 → ₹ 39,042 Cr (FY21 → FY24) thanks to cumulative PAT > ₹ 37,000 Cr (one-offs included).
5.2 Cash Flows Snapshot
| CF Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFO (₹ Cr) | 7,014 | 10,233 | 8,431 | 14,170 | 21,501 |
| CFI (₹ Cr) | – 2,188 | 774 | 1,545 | 3,481 | – 17,142 |
| CFF (₹ Cr) | – 5,655 | – 10,338 | – 10,408 | – 16,864 | – 5,175 |
| Net Cash Flow (₹ Cr) | – 828 | 669 | – 433 | 787 | – 816 |
- CFO ↑ YoY:
- FY21 ₹ 7,014 Cr → FY25 ₹ 21,501 Cr (tripled): On higher merchant volumes, gas contribution, and one-off MTM/dividend receipts.
- CFI (Capex) Switch:
- FY21–FY24: Positive CFI (₹ – 2,188 → + 3,481 Cr) because APL sold thermal assets (Hinduja stake, asset monetization) netting cash.
- FY25 (– ₹ 17,142 Cr): Massive capex on Kawai Solar (300 MW at ₹ 2,000 Cr), Tiroda Solar, and mine expansions—“Building future wattage.”
- CFF (Debt Movement):
- FY21–FY24: High debt repayments (– ₹ 10,000–₹ 16,000 Cr/year) as EBITDA poured in.
- FY25: Borrowed ₹ 8,000 Cr net (refinanced KSK Mahan, new solar loans).
Bottom Line: CFO can fund most capex, but FY25 solar spree forced fresh borrowings.
6) Segment “Juice” Breakdown (FY25) 🥤
APL’s businesses can be bucketed into three main “power sources” in FY25:
| Segment | Key Assets | FY25 Revenue (₹ Cr) | OPM (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thermal Coal | Mundra UMPP (4,620 MW), Tiroda (1,600 MW) | ~ ₹ 30,000 Cr¹ | ~ 38 % |
| Combined-Cycle Gas | Udupi (242 MW), Godda (1,600 MW SEZ), Tiroda gas (1,200 MW) | ~ ₹ 15,000 Cr¹ | ~ 35 % |
| Renewables & Others | Kawai Solar (300 MW), Betul (50 MW), Adani Green stake (“Other Income”) | ~ ₹ 1,500 Cr¹ | ~ 20 % |
| Merchant / Trading | Short-term PPAs, merchant spot sales (solar, coal linkage arbitrage) | ~ ₹ 9,000 Cr¹ | ~ 40 % |
¹ Estimates derived by apportioning total ₹ 56,203 Cr based on public disclosures and segment margins (approx.).
- Thermal Coal: Still ~ 50 % of total energy mix. Mundra’s long-term PPAs with SEBs (₹ 5.20–₹ 5.60/unit) + merchant (₹ 7–₹ 8/unit).
- Gas: Higher tariffs (₹ 8–₹ 9/unit) but hedging costs & fuel price volatility.
- Renewables: Solar + wind portfolio small (~ 350 MW) but growing; “other income” from Adani Green profit sharing (₹ 1,162 Cr).
- Merchant Trading: Spot sales when power demand spikes—windfall margins during peak summer (₹ 10–₹ 12/unit).
TL;DR: Coal still king, gas is “star player,” renewables are benchwarmer (but warming up), and merchant sales are “wildcard dunk” when grid blazes. 🔥🏀
7) Peer Comparison: “Who’s Shocking Whom?” ⚡🤼
| Company | CMP (₹) | P/E | ROCE (%) | Net Debt/EBITDA | One-Line Quip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Power | 555.25 | 16.8× | 22.5 % | ~ 1.8× | “Leverages like there’s no tomorrow; still lights up India.” |
| Tata Power | 399.55 | 31.5× | 11.3 % | ~ 4.0× | “Eye on solar & distribution; beefy balance sheet for decades.” |
| Torrent Power | 1,408.00 | 23.7× | 16.8 % | ~ 2.5× | “City licensee darling— steady cash flows, less drama.” |
| CESC Ltd. | 168.08 | 16.3× | 10.9 % | ~ 4.5× | “Kolkata’s OG—diesel gen in Kolkata but heritage grid still rules.” |
| Reliance Infra. | 371.80 | 3.4× | 34.0 % | ~ 0.8× | “Diversified into infra; de-leveraged like a boss post 2018.” |
Observations:
- APL’s P/E 16.8× is far cheaper vs. Tata Power’s 31.5×, reflecting cyclical risk.
- ROCE 22.5 %—best among peers (Torrent 16.8 %, CESC 10.9 %).
- Net Debt/EBITDA ~ 1.8×: Moderate. Lower than Tata Power (4×).
8) “Hot Sparks” & “Trip Hazards” (Risks & Upside) 🚧🚀
🔴 Key Risks:
- Fuel Price Whiplash 🎢:
- Domestic Coal Linkage Issues: If domestic coal falls short → higher imported coal costs → margins shrink.
- Gas Price Volatility: Udupi & Godda reliant on RLNG (₹ 70–₹ 80/SCM vs. ₹ 40 last year) → margin blowouts.
- Debt Overhang 📉:
- Gross Borrowings ₹ 39,495 Cr: Though down from peak, still high.
- Interest ₹ 3,340 Cr (FY25): Any 0.5 % rate bump = ₹ 200–300 Cr extra cost.
- One-Off Dependency “Cash Carnival” 🎉:
- FY22 & FY24 benefited from MTM/treasury gains (₹ 3,908 Cr / ₹ 9,883 Cr). Underlying PAT ~ ₹ 5,000 Cr now. Be cautious—no guarantee of repeat.
- Regulatory & PPA Renegotiation 🤝🕵️:
- Long-term PPA tariffs fixed; merchant call is “game of prices”—if power demand dips, spot tariffs crater.
- Any force majeure (e.g., floods inundate Mundra)—“lights out” and earnings crater.
- Environmental Backlash 🌱⚖️:
- Thermal Coal: Stricter emissions norms → capex for FGD (₹ 2,000–₹ 3,000 Cr per plant).
- Carbon Tax Threat: Might face carbon price on coal plants → ₹ 500–₹ 1,000 Cr annual bill in near future.
🟢 Key Upside Catalysts:
- “Gas-to-Power” Momentum 🌬️:
- Building 3,000 MW of gas capacity → higher plant load factor (PLF) as gas cheaper than coal for peak.
- If LNG imports normalise → major margin expansion.
- Renewables (Solar, Hybrid) 🌞🔋:
- Kawai Solar (300 MW) + Betul (50 MW) → stable high-margin ₹ 3.50–₹ 4.00/unit PPAs.
- Hybrid Projects (Coal + Solar) cut fuel cost effectively.
- Debt Reduction Path 🛤️:
- CFO ₹ 21,501 Cr (FY25) can fund most capex → gradually pay down ₹ 20,000 Cr over next 2–3 years → interest cost shrinks.
- Merchant Power Bonanza (Peak Heat Waves) 🔥:
- Peak Summer Spikes (₹ 12–₹ 15/unit) → short bursts can add ₹ 1,500–₹ 2,000 Cr EBITDA in a good year.
- Grid Stability Business (Transmission + Distribution) 🚦:
- Potential for captive trading to capture “Wheeling” charges → new revenue stream from ISTS (Inter-State Transmission System).
9) Dividend & Shareholding “Snippets” 🤑
- Dividend:
- FY21–FY25: ₹ 0 (Policy: reinvest earnings for capex).
- Yield: 0.00 %—“All lights, zero freebies.”
- Shareholding (Mar 2025):
- Promoters: 74.96 % (stable).
- FIIs: 12.36 % (sliding from 17.51 % in FY23).
- DIIs: 1.64 %.
- Public: 11.03 %.
Low Public Float (11 %) = price can twitch wildly on any macro news (e.g., coal shortage rumors). 📉📈
10) “Juice or Electrocution?”—Verdict 🎯
| Metric | Rating | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | ★★★☆☆ | 26,221 → 56,203 Cr (FY21 → FY25): + 114 % in five years; solid—but volatile. |
| Operating Margins | ★★★★☆ | 33 % → 38 % (FY21 → FY25); coal & gas mix + merchant yields keep OPM healthy. |
| Net Profit Growth | ★★★☆☆ | ₹ 1,270 → ₹ 12,750 Cr = 10×; “but hold the one-off whoppers.” |
| Balance Sheet Strength | ★★☆☆☆ | Net debt/EBITDA ~ 1.8×: moderate; peak capex behind, but interest remains hefty. |
| Valuation Comfort | ★★★☆☆ | P/E 16.8× “reasonable” vs. Tata Power 31.5×; but hidden risks from fuel & regulation loom. |
| Risk Profile | ★★☆☆☆ | Coal/gas volatility, regulatory shocks, one-off dependence—stay nimble. |
Analyst’s Emoji-Tinged Verdict:
“🔌 APL powers India—but it also carries a ⚡ bill shock risk. Great margins when coal & gas align, but don’t get roasted by rising fuel prices or regulatory blackouts. If you’re a ‘steady-eddy, yield-chaser,’ look elsewhere. If you’re a ‘high-return, high-risk thrill-seeker,’ buckle up—this power ride’s got spark! ⚡🎢”
Author: Prashant Marathe
Date: 7 June 2025
Meta Summary:
Adani Power’s five-year story: Revenues ₹ 26,221 Cr → ₹ 56,203 Cr; EBITDA ₹ 8,688 Cr → ₹ 21,418 Cr; PAT ₹ 1,270 Cr → ₹ 12,750 Cr (one-offs included). Strong OPM (38 %), high ROCE (22.5 %) but coal/gas fuel swings & debt keep this “Powerhouse” on a rollercoaster.
