NTPC posted a consolidated net profit of ₹21,332 Cr for FY25, up 4.9% YoY. Revenue touched ₹1.70 lakh crore, and shareholders were treated to a ₹8.35/share dividend, a solid 2.4% yield. EPS came in at ₹20.26 — but if you remove those regulatory deferral sweeteners, it drops to ₹16.85. So, is this power PSU a safe compounder or just a giant thermal turbine slowly cooling off?
🔌 About NTPC
- Type: Maharatna PSU (Govt of India, majority stake)
- Founded: 1975
- Core Biz: Power generation — thermal, hydro, solar, wind, nuclear
- Installed Capacity: 75 GW+ (target: 130 GW by 2032)
- Subsidiaries: NTPC Green, NTPC Mining, NEEPCO, THDC, NVVN, Ratnagiri
- JV Presence: Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Nepal
This isn’t just a company. It’s the backbone of India’s electricity grid, and now it wants to go full green without losing its PSU swag.
🧑💼 Key Managerial Personnel (KMP)
| Name | Role |
|---|---|
| Gurdeep Singh | CMD |
| Ritu Arora | Company Secretary |
| Vinod Kumar & Co. | Statutory Auditors |
✅ Audit Opinion: Unmodified
🧾 However, EPS adjusted for regulatory deferrals is ₹16.85 — a reality check buried deep in the annexures.
📊 FY25 Consolidated Financials
| Metric | FY25 (₹ Cr) | FY24 (₹ Cr) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from Operations | ₹1,70,037.37 | ₹1,62,008.95 | 🔼 +4.96% |
| Other Income | ₹4,540.20 | ₹3,156.91 | 🔼 +43.8% |
| Total Income | ₹1,74,577.57 | ₹1,65,165.86 | 🔼 +5.69% |
| Profit Before Tax | ₹27,141.45 | ₹25,505.85 | 🔼 +6.4% |
| Net Profit | ₹21,332.45 | ₹20,332.25 | 🔼 +4.9% |
| Basic EPS (incl. Reg. Adj.) | ₹20.26 | ₹18.64 | 🔼 +8.7% |
| Adjusted EPS (excl. Reg. Adj.) | ₹16.85 | ₹17.48 | 🔻 -3.6% |
| Total Dividend per Share | ₹8.35 | ₹7.25 | 🔼 +15.2% |
📌 Almost half the earnings are “regulatory asset deferrals” — accounting candy that SEBI doesn’t like but PSUs love.
💸 Fair Value Calculation
- Adjusted EPS: ₹16.85
- Sector P/E (Power Utilities): ~15x
- Fair Value Estimate: ₹252.75
📍 CMP = ₹344.60 → This implies the market is pricing in the renewable story, not just earnings
💭 Want to value it based on actual earnings? It’s overpriced.
💭 Want to believe in green infra? It’s a long-term bet.
⚙️ Segment Highlights
| Segment | FY25 Revenue (₹ Cr) | Segment Profit (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|
| Thermal Power | ₹1,45,680 | ₹34,881 |
| Renewables & Hydro | ₹6,920 | ₹1,982 |
| Coal Mining | ₹6,017 | ₹1,314 |
| Consultancy + Others | ₹515 | ₹186 |
☀️ Renewables still <5% of revenue — but growing fast. Coal & thermal still pay the bills.
📉 Balance Sheet Highlights
| Metric | FY25 (₹ Cr) | FY24 (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | ₹4,20,000+ | ₹3,92,000+ |
| Net Worth | ₹1,54,674 | ₹1,38,606 |
| Total Borrowings | ₹2,05,000+ | ₹2,01,000+ |
| Capex Spent | ₹40,452 | ₹39,569 |
📈 Huge borrowings — but that’s typical for infra-heavy businesses. NTPC’s credit rating? Solid.
🧠 EduInvesting Take
NTPC is India’s ultimate PSU dinosaur — but one that’s learning to dance to the ESG tune.
✅ ₹21,000+ Cr profit
✅ ₹8.35 dividend
✅ No auditor drama
✅ EPS growing (on paper)
✅ Capex rising in renewables
But also…
🚫 90% of power still thermal
⚠️ True earnings (excl. regulator fluff) aren’t growing
📉 Adjusted EPS actually fell this year
💤 Market moves slowly unless big green milestones are hit
🔥 Risks & Red Flags
- 🧾 Overreliance on regulatory assets = “unrealised” profit
- 🌡️ Thermal still dominates, despite ESG pledges
- 💰 Capex-hungry = high debt cycle
- ⚖️ Dividend is strong, but payout ratio remains modest (~40%)
- 🐘 PSU status = policy risk, not market-driven
🔋 Green Push or Greenwashed?
- ✅ NTPC Green Energy subsidiary gaining steam
- ✅ Solar additions across UP, Rajasthan, Gujarat
- ✅ Plans to set up Green Hydrogen projects with IndianOil
- ❌ But <10% of revenue is green so far
NTPC is trying. But turning a ₹4 lakh crore juggernaut is like asking an elephant to moonwalk.
🧾 Final Verdict
NTPC is a PSU that pays you to hold. No drama. No pump-dump. Just stable, regulated returns with a future green twist.
CMP ₹344.60 reflects hope in renewables, not just profits.
If the green business scales up — this becomes India’s Next Gen Energy Champion.
If not — it’s still the best government FD with a 2.4% bonus dividend.
Author: Prashant Marathe
Date: May 24, 2025
