🔁 “I’ll Average Down One Last Time” — And Other Famous Last Words

🔁 “I’ll Average Down One Last Time” — And Other Famous Last Words

Meta Description: You said you’d average down just one more time. Now you’re 80% down, 3X overweight in a dying stock, and praying for a breakout. Here’s why averaging down is retail’s favorite self-destruction ritual.


📌 At a Glance:

Averaging down is the retail investor’s coping mechanism.
Instead of accepting a bad decision, we double down like it’s a poker game.

“Stock is down? No problem. I’ll average. It’ll bounce. It has to.”

And thus begins the spiral:

  • Stock falls from ₹110 → ₹80 → ₹50 → ₹28
  • You keep buying
  • You keep hoping
  • Until your portfolio becomes a hostage situation

🧠 1. Why We Average Down (Even When It’s Stupid)

BeliefReality
“I’m lowering my average price!”You’re increasing your exposure to a loser
“It’s cheap now”It’s cheap for a reason
“It’ll recover”Your conviction ≠ market reality
“I’m investing more, that’s good right?”Not if it’s blind faith

This isn’t dollar-cost averaging.
This is hope-cost averaging.


📉 2. The Numbers That Haunt You

Let’s say you bought:

  • 100 shares at ₹100 = ₹10,000
  • Stock falls to ₹50
  • You buy 100 more = ₹5,000
  • Now your avg price is ₹75
  • But the stock crashes to ₹20

So your ₹15,000 is now worth:
₹4,000

You thought you were being smart.
You just created a bigger position in a worse stock.


💥 3. Famous Average-Down Disasters

StockInvestors Averaged Down AtCurrent Status
YES Bank₹80 → ₹40 → ₹18Now ₹25 (but time is money)
RCOM₹120 → ₹60 → ₹30Now delisted
Suzlon (Pre-Turnaround)₹30 → ₹15 → ₹5Flatlined for 10 years
Vodafone Idea₹13 → ₹9 → ₹6Still stuck in AGR purgatory

Lesson:
Averaging down doesn’t fix a bad stock.
It just increases your emotional damage.


🧾 4. When Is Averaging Down Actually Okay?

✅ Business fundamentals are intact
✅ Stock fell due to temporary macro headwinds
✅ Management is clean and transparent
✅ You have researched & sized properly
✅ You have a risk plan — not revenge bias

If not?
You’re not investing.
You’re just emotionally attached to a mistake.


📺 5. Retail Traders Be Like…

“It’s only down 30%. I’ll average and wait.”

Next week: down 40%.

“Perfect time to average again. It can’t go lower.”

Next month: circuit down 20%.

“I’ve invested too much to sell now. Let’s hold long term.”

Now you’re a long-term investor in a short-term fraud.


🤯 6. Why This Hurts So Much

Because you started with:

  • Hope
  • Dreams
  • Excitement

And ended with:

  • Regret
  • Debt
  • Excel sheets that lie to your face

Averaging down magnifies your loss — not just financially, but psychologically.


🧘 7. Better Strategy? Average Up

What smart money does:

  • Start small
  • Let the stock prove itself
  • Average up when business momentum is visible

Your winners should be heavier than your losers.
But in retail portfolios?
Red stocks are always overweight.


🧠 EduInvesting Take:

“You’re not averaging down.
You’re doubling down on denial.

Letting go of a bad stock hurts.
But holding on hurts more.

Every rupee added to a falling stock is a vote for ignorance.
Instead of trying to be “right,” focus on being rich in wisdom.


🏁 Final Verdict:

ThoughtTruth
“I’m improving my average price!”You’re worsening your portfolio
“It will bounce back”It might not. Ever.
“One last average down”It’s never the last
“I’ll exit at cost”Cost is now a fantasy

🏷️ Tags:

averaging down explained, retail investor mistakes, stock market denial, loss psychology, eduinvesting satire, portfolio management trap

Prashant Marathe

https://eduinvesting.in

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