By Prashant Marathe | EduInvesting.in | 21 May 2025
🪦 At a Glance:
Vodafone Idea has officially entered the ghosht-of-telecoms-past zone.
- CMP: ₹6.55
- Down 40% from 2024 highs
- AGR dues once again dragging it to the ICU
We’ve said “this could be the final nail” at least 7 times before. But now, it’s not a nail — it’s a steel rod.
📞 The Long Saga in 30 Seconds
- 2018: Vodafone India + Idea Cellular = Merger of desperation
- 2019: Supreme Court rules on AGR dues. Vodafone Idea slapped with ₹58,000+ Cr demand
- 2020–23: Delays, bailouts, court drama, partial payments, promoter ghosting
- 2024: Govt converts dues to equity. Promoters dilute stake. Retail dreams crushed.
- 2025: Fresh notice from DoT: “Pay ₹8,000 Cr AGR dues by June or else…”
It’s like watching a man slowly drown while others argue over the water bill.
🧨 The Final AGR Blow
- Department of Telecom (DoT) issued fresh demand for unpaid AGR interest + penalties
- Amount: ₹7,900 Cr — due immediately
- Vi has less than ₹300 Cr cash on books
- Even if it raises money, the next interest cycle will choke it again
📊 Financials (TTM + FY24)
| Metric | FY24 | FY23 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹42,520 Cr | ₹38,650 Cr |
| EBITDA | ₹17,650 Cr | ₹16,340 Cr |
| Net Loss | ₹25,100 Cr | ₹28,300 Cr |
| Debt | ₹2.1 Lakh Cr | ₹2.2 Lakh Cr |
| AGR Dues (Total) | ₹57,000 Cr+ | ₹58,000 Cr+ |
Networth? Technically negative.
ARPU? ₹146 vs Jio ₹182 and Airtel ₹209.
User churn? Higher than your ex.
🧠 Why AGR Won’t Go Away
- AGR = Adjusted Gross Revenue — the definition telecom firms argued with DoT over
- Supreme Court said “Pay up, no negotiation”
- Vi delayed, deferred, and pleaded
- Government converted some dues to equity, now owns ~33%
- But the interest + penalty component keeps increasing
This latest demand is the smouldering ember that could light the funeral pyre.
🪙 What About That ₹18,000 Cr FPO?
Yes, Vi raised ₹18,000 Cr in April 2024.
But:
- ₹14,000 Cr went to vendors + tower lease dues
- ₹2,200 Cr went to spectrum payments
- ₹800 Cr went to capex (basically 5G PR)
- 💸 Net impact? Cash burn continues at ₹2,000 Cr/quarter
That money is now evaporated, and the latest AGR demand was not priced in.
🔮 Market Doesn’t Believe Anymore
| Month | CMP | Volume | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2024 | ₹12.4 | High | Bullish post-FPO |
| Mar 2024 | ₹10.1 | Moderate | “Wait & Watch” |
| May 2025 | ₹6.55 | Heavy selling | “Just let it die already” |
Even traders have stopped calling this a bounce candidate.
Retail is bag-holding. Institutions exited months ago. And GoI? Busy with 6G slogans.
🧠 EduInvesting Take:
Let’s be honest:
- Vi is functionally bankrupt
- It’s being kept alive for political optics
- AGR dues are a legal blackhole
This is not an investment. It’s emotional masochism.
Holding Vodafone Idea now is like cheering for a test match where your team is 40/9 with one hamstringed batsman left.
⚠️ Risks (a.k.a. Reasons to Let Go)
- Fresh AGR demand = license suspension risk
- Interest burden unpayable
- No clear roadmap to profitability till FY28
- 5G rollout delayed, vendors unpaid again
- User churn continues to Jio & Airtel
🪦 Final Word:
There’s no glory in holding a company that’s burning ₹24,000 Cr a year while praying for divine spectrum intervention.
You didn’t miss a multibagger. You dodged a telecom zombie.
Vodafone Idea wasn’t a stock. It was an AGR simulator with real losses.
Let it go. Let it die with dignity. Buy a ₹6.55 coffee instead — you’ll get more return.
Tags: Vodafone Idea collapse, AGR dues, telecom stocks India, Vi final nail, telecom debt crisis, spectrum dues India, EduInvesting satire
