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Gujarat State Petronet Ltd – Pipelines Full, Profits Half, and an Amalgamation Tamasha


1. At a Glance

GSPL is Gujarat’s pride in pipelines—2,704 km of steel tubes carrying gas across the state, plus a 54% stake in Gujarat Gas. On paper it looks like the Ambani of gas grids, but in FY25, profits fell 37% while sales shrank 6.5%. When your OPM drops from 20% to 15%, you’re basically the kirana shop whose “special margin” vanished because D-Mart opened next door.


2. Introduction

Let’s cut to the chase: Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) is the desi Uber for natural gas—just without the surge pricing or in-app fights. Its pipelines connect LNG terminals from Hazira, Dahej, Mundra, Chhara, and Swan FSRU, delivering gas to refineries, fertilizer plants, and city distribution networks. If you’ve cooked food on PNG in Gujarat, thank GSPL’s invisible plumbing.

But despite this strategic moat, FY25 looked like a leaky pipe. PAT fell to ₹1,051 Cr, down from ₹2,184 Cr two years ago. Revenues flatlined at ~₹16,750 Cr. Investors, who once dreamed of it being the “next GAIL with better discipline,” are now staring at a stock that’s down 31% YoY.

And then there’s the mother of all dramas: GSPL, Gujarat Gas, and GSPC are planning a mega-amalgamation. It’s like your joint family deciding to merge finances—sounds good on paper, but wait till uncles start fighting over who controls the TV remote.


3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?

GSPL earns 98% of revenue from transporting natural gas. Think toll operator, but instead of trucks, molecules of methane are passing through. They also dabble in:

  • City Gas Distribution (via Gujarat Gas stake) – GSPL owns 54%, making Gujarat Gas both a daughter and customer. Very Indian joint family vibes.
  • Windmills – 52.5 MW capacity. Basically, pocket money compared to pipelines.

Sectoral split of volumes:

  • CGD – 36%
  • Refinery/Petchem – 18%
  • Fertilizer – 15%
  • Power – 14%
  • Others – 17%

So their cash cows are Gujarat Gas and fertilizer/power buyers. But with fertilizer subsidies under pressure and renewable power growing, demand isn’t as sticky as their pipeline walls.

Q for readers: would you pay premium multiples for a company where 98% of sales depend on regulators setting “tariffs”? Isn’t that like betting on whether the toll naka guy smiles at you or not?


4. Financials Overview

MetricJun ’25Jun ’24Mar ’25YoY %QoQ %
Revenue (₹ Cr)4,1074,7274,291-13.1%-4.3%
EBITDA (₹ Cr)718822567-12.6%+26.6%
PAT (₹ Cr)315527352-40.2%-10.5%
EPS (₹)5.66.73.9-16.4%+43.6%

Commentary: Revenues dropped double digits, but at least EBITDA margin stayed ~17%. PAT, however, is sliding faster than butter on a hot paratha.


5. Valuation – Fair Value Range Only

(i) P/E Method

  • EPS: ₹18.6
  • Industry P/E: ~14x
  • Fair range: ₹260 – ₹325

(ii) EV/EBITDA Method

  • EV: ~₹14,755 Cr
  • EBITDA (TTM): ~₹2,526 Cr
  • EV/EBITDA = 5.8x
  • Fair range: 5–7x → ₹2,526 × 5–7 = ₹12,600 – ₹17,700 Cr EV
  • Per share: ₹225 – ₹315

(iii) DCF (simplified)
Normalized FCF ~₹1,500 Cr, growth 4%, WACC 10% → value ~₹15,000 – 17,000 Cr → ₹265 – ₹300/share

👉 Fair Value Range (educational only): ₹225 – ₹325/share

Disclaimer: Educational purpose only, not investment advice.


6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama

  • Mega Amalgamation – MCA approved scheme for merging GSPC, GSPL, Gujarat Gas, and GSPL Transmission. This is the Gujarati thali version of mergers—everything on one plate. Execution risk? High. Potential synergies? Also high.
  • Pipeline Expansion – PNGRB approval for Anjar-Palanpur pipeline expansion. Tariff fights with PNGRB continue.
  • Leadership Change

Eduinvesting Team

https://eduinvesting.in/

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