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Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd – ₹1,750 Cr Net Profit and a Nitric Acid Plant Cooking in Kota


1. At a Glance

Chambal Fertilisers isn’t your neighbourhood “urea wallah.” This ₹22,000 Cr market cap beast supplies nearly 13% of India’s urea, runs a phosphoric acid JV in Morocco (because why not outsource your acidity), and is now setting up a ₹1,645 Cr nitric acid–ammonium nitrate combo project. Dividend payouts are steady, debt has evaporated faster than subsidy payments, and yet, sales growth is as lethargic as a sarkari babu on a Friday evening.


2. Introduction

Once upon a time, Chambal thought dabbling in software was cool. But then FY21 came along, and the company dumped that business faster than you’d uninstall Candy Crush after losing 10 levels in a row. Now, it’s back to what it knows best: fertilizers, chemicals, and making sure farmers in Rajasthan, MP, Punjab, and Haryana don’t curse their fields.

The company runs three mega urea plants in Kota with ~98% utilization. For a manufacturing unit in India, 98% utilization is basically like saying, “Boss, we’re full, don’t send more gas.”

And yet, Chambal isn’t just sticking to urea. It markets DAP, MOP, NPKs, specialty nutrients, and pesticides. Think of it as Big Bazaar before Kishore Biyani lost the plot—everything agri-input under one roof. Add to that a Moroccan JV (because apparently Rajasthan heat wasn’t enough), and you get a desi chemical cocktail.

Oh, and recently, the company announced a massive buyback at ₹450/share. Spoiler alert: CMP is already ₹550. Whoever tendered must be crying like IPL fans of RCB every April.


3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?

Chambal is a urea factory first, an agri-mall second, and a wannabe pesticide king third. Urea accounts for the bulk of operations—about 97% of FY23 revenues came from fertilizers. The crop protection and specialty nutrients business is just 3% today but is projected to scale up to ₹1,750 Cr by FY27. Ambitious? Sure. Realistic? Let’s see.

Revenue mix is 60% manufacturing (own urea plants) and 40% trading (DAP, MOP, etc.). That’s like cooking half the food at home and Swiggy-ing the rest.

The upcoming ammonium nitrate project? Smart move. Demand is booming in mining, explosives, and infrastructure. Plus, weak nitric acid production at the same site ensures backward integration. Chambal is clearly trying to be the Reliance of fertilizers—make everything in-house, sell everything outside, and keep the cash flowing.


4. Financials Overview

Quarterly Numbers (₹ Cr):

MetricLatest Qtr (Jun’25)YoY Qtr (Jun’24)Prev Qtr (Mar’25)YoY %QoQ %
Revenue5,6984,9332,44915.5%132.6%
EBITDA7617521631.2%367%
PAT54944813022.4%322%
EPS (₹)13.711.23.2522.3%321%

Commentary:
EPS annualized at ~₹55. At CMP ₹550, that’s a P/E of ~10x. Compare that to industry P/E of 30x—Chambal looks like the kid who studied but still got only 70 marks because the teacher didn’t like his handwriting.


5. Valuation – Fair Value Range Only

  1. P/E Method:
    • EPS (TTM): ₹43.7
    • Industry P/E: 30
    • Conservative band: 10x–15x → ₹437 – ₹655
  2. EV/EBITDA Method:
    • EV: ₹21,880 Cr, EBITDA (TTM): ₹2,492 Cr → 8.8x
    • Peer range: 10–15x → EV fair range: ₹24,900 – ₹37,400 Cr
    • Market Cap range: ~₹25,000 – ₹37,500 Cr → Per share: ₹625 – ₹940
  3. DCF (Quick & Dirty):
    • Free Cash Flow ~₹2,200 Cr annualized
    • Growth 5% for 5 years, terminal 3%, WACC 11%
    • Value range: ₹23,000 – ₹29,000 Cr → Per share: ₹580 – ₹730

Fair Value Range: ₹550 – ₹800

Disclaimer: Educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Don’t sue us; sue your broker.


6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama

  • Nitric Acid & Ammonium Nitrate plant: ₹1,645 Cr capex, expected by Oct’25. Cost escalated already once—classic Indian infra project move.
  • Buyback @ ₹450/share: Done and dusted. Market already moved past it. Whoever

Eduinvesting Team

https://eduinvesting.in/

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