EduInvesting.in | May 13, 2025 — Lunch Break Special
What did the investor order?
“One Swiggy IPO.”
What did they receive?
“Cold losses, ₹1,081 Cr in red, and an Instamart that delivers losses faster than groceries.”
On Tuesday, Swiggy shares fell over 7% to ₹299.95, as if the stock saw its own Q4 numbers and fainted. The timing? Impeccable. Just as 83% of the company’s shares became free to sell post-IPO lock-in, the early investors hit the exit harder than you hit ‘cancel order’ when the ETA shows 60 minutes.
📉 Quick Stats (Not So Quick Commerce)
| 📊 Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CMP | ₹299.95 |
| % Fall Today | -6.35% |
| Q4 Net Loss | ₹1,081 Cr |
| Revenue (YoY) | ₹4,410 Cr (+45%) |
| Expenses (YoY) | ₹5,610 Cr (+52%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ₹-732 Cr |
| Instamart GOV Growth | +101% |
| Net Profit | Bro… what profit? |
“Swiggy’s quick commerce might be fast, but their profits are running late — by several years.”
🔍 So What Went Wrong?
🧨 1. Losses Doubled Like Pizza Orders on IPL Finals
Last year same time: ₹554 Cr loss
This year: ₹1,081 Cr
That’s not growth — that’s financial food poisoning.
🛒 2. Instamart: The Double-Edged Knife
- Instamart’s Gross Order Value grew 101%
- Average order value hit ₹527
- But to deliver that, Swiggy blew money on 316 dark stores and expanded into 124 cities like a startup on sugar
Translation: Great growth. Horrible cost control. Just like ordering 5 things for ₹200 delivery charges.
💼 3. IPO Lock-in Period Expired. Chaos Ensued.
Nearly 83% of shares just got unlocked.
Founders, VCs, early angels — all now legally allowed to dump.
And by the looks of the chart, dump they did.
📉 4. Analysts Are Now Rethinking Their Life Choices
- Ambit: “Sell this thing. Cut target to ₹292. See ya.”
- Motilal Oswal: “We’re neutral, but that’s just polite for ‘not buying either.’”
- Retailers: “But they said it was the next Zomato!”
🍽️ Zomato vs Swiggy: Who Delivered Better in Q4?
| Metric | Eternal (Zomato) | Swiggy |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹5,833 Cr | ₹4,410 Cr |
| Net Profit | ₹39 Cr | ₹-1,081 Cr |
| Growth Strategy | Balanced | Chaos with fries |
| Burn Rate | Contained | On fire 🔥 |
| Share Price Action | Flat to up | Falling off a cliff |
Zomato (now “Eternal Ltd.”) is pulling off the miracle of actually making money.
Swiggy? It’s just making headlines — and losses.
🧠 EduInvestor Final Take:
“Swiggy’s Q4 was like ordering a thali and getting an empty plate. Sure, there’s revenue growth, but every rupee earned is chased by ₹1.27 in expense. The market doesn’t hate Swiggy — it’s just tired of paying surge pricing for red flags.”
🧾 Investment Cheat Sheet
| Should You Buy the Dip? | 🤔 Only if you love thrillers |
|---|---|
| Is It Oversold? | Not yet. Wait for ₹270-280 zones |
| Can It Rebound? | Only if management delivers EBITDAs, not just biryanis |
| Better Bet? | Eternal Ltd. (Zomato) for now |
🎯 Final Verdict
“If Swiggy wants to win the market’s heart, it has to stop chasing growth like a hungry app notification. First serve profits, then think about expansion. Or investors will keep hitting ‘cancel’ faster than its dark stores can deliver atta.”
