1. At a Glance
Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) just flexed harder than a bodybuilder in a solar field. Revenue up 31% YoY to ₹3,312 Cr, EBITDA at ₹3,108 Cr (a scorching 92.8% margin), and cash profit at ₹1,744 Cr. Operational capacity zoomed 45% YoY to 15.8 GW, with Khavda now resembling the Avengers HQ for renewables. Meanwhile, promoters pumped up their holding to 62.43%. The planet breathes easier, investors grin, and competitors weep quietly.
2. Management Mic Drop (Concall)
The management’s Q1 FY26 vibe:
- “We added 4.9 GW in a year, Khavda is bigger than Paris—deal with it.”
- “Merchant power sales are climbing, PPAs? We’re over-delivering.”
- “ESG scores? Ranked #1 globally. Sustainably killing it.”
- “Funding? Sorted. Promoter warrants & international lenders love us.”
Translation: they’re basically saying, “We’ll build, scale, and print EBITDA while the world catches up.”
3. Business Model (WTF Do They Even Do?)
AGEL’s recipe:
- Ingredient 1: 15.8 GW of solar, wind, and hybrid power plants.
- Ingredient 2: Long-term PPAs with predictable cash flows.
- Ingredient 3: A dash of merchant power for extra spice (higher margins).
- Ingredient 4: AI-driven O&M because humans are too slow.
They make money by selling renewable power under fixed tariffs and trading excess on merchant markets. Essentially, they’re the green mafia—owning sunlight, wind, and the grid.
4. Financials Overview
| Metric | Q1 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 2,528 | 3,312 | +31% |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 2,374 | 3,108 | +31% |
| EBITDA Margin | 92.6% | 92.8% | 🔥 |
| Cash Profit (₹ Cr) | 1,394 | 1,744 | +25% |
Verdict: These numbers don’t flex—they bench press competitors.
5. What’s This Stock Worth?
Valuation is a tightrope:
- P/E method: At current multiples (rich), fair value lands around ₹1,650–₹1,850.
- EV/EBITDA method: EBITDA growth + Khavda premium gives ₹1,700–₹1,900.
Market’s saying, “Pricy but future-proof.” DCF? Even Excel got scared.
6. What-If Scenarios
- Best Case: 50 GW by FY30, merchant sales dominate, stock does a rocket launch.
- Base Case: Capacity grows as promised, stable PPAs, 20–25% annual EBITDA rise.
- Worst Case: Policy shocks or grid bottlenecks—stock does yoga (flat).
7. What’s Cooking (SWOT Analysis)
Strengths:
- Largest renewable player in India, AI-driven ops, high ESG scores.
Weaknesses:
- High valuations, execution always under the microscope.
Opportunities:
- Merchant power sales, global ESG funds, hybrid tech leadership.
Threats:
- Policy tweaks, tariff caps, and those pesky global bond yields.
8. Balance Sheet 💰
| Metric | FY25 |
|---|---|
| Equity Capital | ₹- |
| Reserves | ₹- |
| Borrowings | Long-term debt but elongated maturities |
| Other Liabilities | Stable |
| Total Assets | ₹- |
Humour check: Debt is not choking, just occasionally coughing.
9. Cash Flow (FY14–FY25)
- Operating: Strong & rising.
- Investing: Heavy outflows (because 50 GW doesn’t build itself).
- Financing: Promoter warrants, international bonds.
Cash flow’s that friend who’s always “busy” but still makes it to the party.
10. Ratios
| Ratio | Value |
|---|---|
| ROE | ~9% |
| ROCE | ~10% |
| D/E | Comfortable |
| EBITDA Margin | 92.8% |
Punchline: Margins so high they need oxygen masks.
11. Misc. Goodies + Glossary
- Promoter Holding: 62.43% (post warrant conversion).
- ESG: Ranked #1 globally by FTSE Russell.
- Khavda Park: 30 GW dream, 5x Paris in size.
Glossary:
- CUF: Capacity Utilization Factor, not a new crypto coin.
- PPA: Power Purchase Agreement, the holy contract.
12. EduInvesting Verdict™
AGEL isn’t just building plants; it’s building an empire. Growth is insane, execution flawless, and ESG credentials squeaky clean.
Final Line: A renewable powerhouse—just remember, even the sun sets eventually.
Written by EduInvesting Team | 28 July 2025
Tags: Adani Green Energy, Renewable Power, Khavda, EduInvesting Premium
