1. At a Glance
CPCL is that overachiever cousin who topped school but is now constantly in trouble with the principal. Once flush with record profits, it’s now wobbling through environmental fines, margin pressure, and a stock chart that looks like a theme park rollercoaster. Q1 FY26? Let’s just say it was not their diamond jubilee moment.
2. Introduction with Hook
Imagine you own a dhaba on a highway. One day, the government says you can’t serve parathas past 6 PM. Next day, they fine you for the smell of onions. That’s CPCL — running a billion-dollar refinery while dodging regulation potholes like a rickshaw in Chennai rain.
Q1 FY26 profit: ₹–40 Cr
Stock fall on results day: –9.7%
And no, they didn’t hit a pipeline — they hit a regulatory iceberg.
3. Business Model (WTF Do They Even Do?)
Basically, they cook crude oil into usable products — but don’t expect Michelin stars.
- CPCL refines crude into goodies like diesel, petrol, jet fuel, LPG, and kerosene.
- They also dabble in lube oil, paraffin wax, petroleum coke, and even hexane — the startup bro of solvents.
- Retail marketing is via big daddy Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), who also owns 67.29%.
So yes, CPCL is a backend beast that never gets credit at the fuel station.
4. Financials Overview
Q1 FY26 (Jun 2025):
| Metric | Value | YoY Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹14,812 Cr | –Glug glug (–15%) |
| Operating Profit | ₹99 Cr | Margins: 1% |
| Net Profit | ₹–40 Cr | Not a vibe |
| EPS | ₹–2.69 | From ₹23.98 to 🫠 |
Commentary:
Margins are now thinner than your patience in Chennai traffic. From 15% OPM in Jun ’22 to barely alive this quarter.
5. Valuation
CMP: ₹687
P/E: 47.8 (Why? No clue. Market’s drunk.)
Book Value: ₹551
P/B: 1.2x
Fair Value Range:
- P/E Method: Assuming sustainable EPS of ₹25 (lol, not current), and 10–12x multiple:
₹250–₹300 - EV/EBITDA Method: TTM EBITDA = ₹451 Cr. EV/EBITDA 6x gives EV ≈ ₹2,700 Cr.
With debt of ₹3,100 Cr… wait… equity value is negative? Yikes.
Verdict: If you’re paying 48x earnings for CPCL, you might also think airline food is gourmet.
6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
Where do we begin?
- Environmental Fines: Rs. 73 Cr penalty by TNPCB. Another Rs. 6.24 Cr later.
- Show Cause Notices: Issued like Diwali sweets.
- Leadership Shuffle: New MD: Shri H. Shankar (Godspeed).
- Retail Re-entry: CPCL entering direct marketing of fuel after 20+ years. Finally wants its own petrol pumps.
- New Capex: ₹1,620 Cr approved for advanced lube oil production.
Basically: more plot twists than a South Indian thriller.
7. Balance Sheet
| Item | Mar 2025 (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 149 |
| Reserves | 8,058 |
| Borrowings | 3,117 |
| Total Assets | 17,065 |
Key takeaways:
- Net worth is decent, but debt still pokes through like a leaky pipe.
- No Titanic-level debt, but not a yacht either.
8. Cash Flow – Sab Number Game Hai
| Year | CFO | CFI | CFF | Net CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | 5,749 | –403 | –5,354 | –7 |
| FY24 | 2,694 | –589 | –2,106 | –1 |
| FY25 | 1,352 | –649 | –519 | +184 |
Highlights:
- Operating cash flow halved in 2 years.
- Investing? All outflow.
- Financing? Mostly debt repayment.
- Net cash flow is like your freelance friend’s bank balance — random and unreliable.
9. Ratios – Sexy or Stressy?
| Ratio | FY25 |
|---|---|
| ROCE | 4% |
| ROE | 2.5% |
| P/E | 47.8x |
| OPM | 1% |
| D/E | 0.39x |
Commentary:
- ROE is lower than FD rates.
- P/E is nosebleed high despite nose-dive profits.
- D/E manageable, but only if revenue wakes up.
10. P&L Breakdown – Show Me the Money
| Year | Revenue (Cr) | EBITDA (Cr) | PAT (Cr) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | 76,271 | 5,698 | 3,532 |
| FY24 | 66,024 | 4,476 | 2,745 |
| FY25 | 59,356 | 1,016 | 214 |
Analysis:
- Revenue down 22% in 2 years.
- PAT down 94% in 2 years. Yes, NINETY FOUR.
- EBITDA now smaller than most PSUs’ petty cash funds.
11. Peer Comparison
| Company | Rev (Cr) | PAT (Cr) | P/E | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOCL | 7,58,106 | 12,133 | 17 | 6.6 |
| BPCL | 4,40,272 | 13,614 | 11 | 17.3 |
| HPCL | 4,34,106 | 6,736 | 13 | 13.7 |
| CPCL | 57,073 | –183 | 48 | 2.5 |
Looks like the guy who got an F in group project but insists on giving the presentation.
12. Miscellaneous – Shareholding, Promoters
| Category | Jun 2025 |
|---|---|
| Promoters | 67.29% |
| FIIs | 8.78% |
| DIIs | 2.48% |
| Public | 21.44% |
- FII stake dropped from 16% to 8.7% in 2 quarters. Oof.
- Retail holding inching back up — brave or blind?
- Promoters remain static. Not panicking. Not rejoicing.
Also, total shareholders peaked over 2 lakh. More retail stuck here than passengers at T Nagar during Diwali shopping.
13. EduInvesting Verdict™
CPCL is the classic PSU story:
Good bones, bad news, and a long list of environmental fines longer than your Uber receipt during surge pricing.
While it may bounce on news like retail entry and new capacity, don’t forget the fines, falling margins, and PE that screams “delusion.”
A refinery worth watching — but only with safety goggles on.
Metadata:
Written by EduInvesting Team | 25 July 2025
Tags: CPCL, Q1 FY26 Results, EduInvesting Premium, Oil & Gas, PSU Stocks, Refining Drama
