🟡 1. At a Glance
AGI Greenpac is the unsung king of glass containers, PET bottles, and closures in India. With a 17–20% market share, it’s the second-largest organized player in this niche. And while FMCG and Pharma stocks were hogging limelight, AGI quietly posted a 5-year profit CAGR of 47%, and ROCE of 20%.
P/E of 16.3x, high OPMs, and a boring name — but don’t let that fool you.
🎬 2. Introduction with Hook
How to get rich making bottles? Ask AGI Greenpac.
Most people pop champagne. AGI makes the bottles, caps it, seals it, and walks away with ₹322 Cr profit.
This company isn’t sexy.
It doesn’t promise AI, drones, or EVs.
But what it does deliver is…
✔️ Consistent margins
✔️ Quiet 10x stock rally (5-year CAGR of 74%)
✔️ Diwali-size cash flows
And now with valuations cooling off post ₹1300 highs, is the glass half full… or cracked?
🏭 3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
AGI Greenpac operates in the packaging products vertical, specifically:
🥂 Glass Containers – liquor, pharma, cosmetics, F&B
🥤 PET Bottles – pharma, personal care
🔐 Security Caps & Closures – high-margin niche
🔬 Specialty Glass – expanding segment
Capacity:
– ~1,600+ TPD across 5 furnaces
– Fully integrated, backward-linked glass packaging business
– 2nd largest in India after HNG
📦 Client base: United Spirits, GSK, Dabur, Heinz, Emami etc.
📊 4. Financials Overview – Profit, Margins, ROE, Growth
| Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹1,260 Cr | ₹1,430 Cr | ₹2,281 Cr | ₹2,421 Cr | ₹2,529 Cr |
| Net Profit | ₹88 Cr | ₹193 Cr | ₹262 Cr | ₹251 Cr | ₹322 Cr |
| OPM % | 21% | 19% | 20% | 23% | 24% |
| ROCE | 8% | 9% | 15% | 18% | 20% |
| ROE | 13.6% | 29.9% | 16.0% | 15.0% | 16.5% |
| EPS (₹) | ₹13.6 | ₹29.9 | ₹40.4 | ₹38.9 | ₹49.8 |
✅ Profits up 3.6x in 4 years
✅ Margins expanded by 500 bps
✅ ROCE & ROE both stellar
💸 5. Valuation – Is It Cheap, Meh, or Crack?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CMP | ₹814 |
| P/E (TTM) | 16.3x |
| EPS (FY25) | ₹49.84 |
| Book Value | ₹324 |
| P/B | 2.51x |
| Dividend Yld | 0.74% |
| Market Cap | ₹5,266 Cr |
🎯 Fair Value Range: ₹900 – ₹1100
– Based on 18–22x P/E on ₹50+ EPS
– Conservatively discounted for liquidity risk and cyclicality
📉 Stock is down from ₹1300 → now in accumulation zone.
🧨 6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
🧠 AI Play? Nope, but they invested ₹6 Cr in Madoverbuilding AI (weird choice)
📦 Specialty glass growth has begun
🧾 SEBI Penalty: ₹5L filed for appeal
📉 Stock Correction: Cracked 35% from peak — now stabilizing
🔁 Capex ongoing in closures and specialty packaging
🧃 Client Stickiness: Packaged alcohol + pharma = high volume annuity
🧾 7. Balance Sheet – How Much Debt, How Many Dreams?
| Metric | FY21 | FY23 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt | ₹898 Cr | ₹732 Cr | ₹553 Cr |
| Reserves | ₹1,221 Cr | ₹1,594 Cr | ₹2,085 Cr |
| Fixed Assets + CWIP | ₹1,862 Cr | ₹2,012 Cr | ₹2,135 Cr |
✅ Debt reduced by ₹345 Cr in 2 years
✅ Assets backed by hard infra
✅ No goodwill or shady intangibles
🟢 Clean and predictable, like a bottle label
💵 8. Cash Flow – Sab Number Game Hai
| Year | CFO | CFI | CFF | Net Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | ₹523 Cr | ₹222 Cr | ₹-554 Cr | ₹190 Cr |
| FY25 | ₹429 Cr | ₹-442 Cr | ₹-190 Cr | ₹-204 Cr |
– Cash generation: solid
– Investing: high capex in FY24–25
– Financing: repaid debt + dividends
💰 Still managed ₹429 Cr OCF despite heavy capex
📉 9. Ratios – Sexy or Stressy?
| Ratio | Value |
|---|---|
| ROCE | 20.1% |
| ROE | 16.5% |
| OPM % | 24% |
| D/E | 0.27x |
| Interest Coverage | ~5x |
| Working Cap Days | 49 |
| Inventory Days | 193 |
🔥 All green flags.
Strong capital allocation. No margin leakage.
🧾 10. P&L Breakdown – Show Me the Money
Quarterly Snapshot (FY25):
| Quarter | Sales | OPM % | PAT | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | ₹566 Cr | 24% | ₹63 Cr | ₹9.77 |
| Q2 | ₹599 Cr | 26% | ₹72 Cr | ₹11.14 |
| Q3 | ₹658 Cr | 26% | ₹91 Cr | ₹13.99 |
| Q4 | ₹705 Cr | 22% | ₹97 Cr | ₹14.93 |
Consistent delivery across quarters = institutional dream stock.
🧩 11. Peer Comparison – Who Else in the Game?
| Company | P/E | ROCE | ROE | OPM | P/B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPL Ltd | 21x | 17.5% | 16.3% | 19.8% | 3.26x |
| TCPL Packaging | 23.7x | 20.1% | 23.8% | 16.9% | 5.16x |
| Cosmo First | 23.0x | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 2.10x |
| AGI Greenpac | 16.3x | 20.1% | 16.5% | 24.3% | 2.51x |
🧠 Best margin player
🧮 Cheaper P/E than peers
📈 Not a commodity biz → differentiated moat
🕵️ 12. Miscellaneous – Shareholding, Promoters
| Holder | Mar ’23 | Mar ’25 |
|---|---|---|
| Promoters | 60.2% | 60.2% |
| FIIs | 6.0% | 7.5% |
| DIIs | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Public | 31.7% | 31.1% |
🧱 Promoter holding stable
📊 ~54,000 retail shareholders
📉 DIIs down, FIIs up → global interest rising
🧠 13. EduInvesting Verdict™
AGI Greenpac is the “boring compounding” stock that delivers spicy results.
– Glass, caps, PET – they sell packaging, not dreams
– 20% ROCE, <17x P/E
– No flashy narratives — just bottles, profits, and cash
🎯 Fair Value Range: ₹900 – ₹1,100
(P/E of 18–22x on ₹50 EPS)
Stock is down from ₹1300 → sipping opportunity?
Verdict: When you see United Spirits partying, remember who sold them the bottle 🍾
✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 July 3, 2025
Tags: AGI Greenpac, glass packaging, high ROCE stocks, PET bottles, defensive FMCG supplier, Diageo suppliers, EduInvesting
