At a Glance
Afcom Holdings Ltd, listed on BSE SME and now a ₹2,140 Cr market cap beast, is India’s quietly booming air-cargo operator focusing on ASEAN. With 3-year PAT CAGR of 112%, 30% ROE, and a Boeing 737 in the hangar, it’s no longer just ‘a freight company’ — it’s trying to become the SpiceJet of logistics (hopefully minus the drama). But at 44x P/E and 9.7x P/B, is this high-flyer overpriced or just getting started?
1. 💥 Introduction with Hook
India’s logistics story is taking off — and no, not on highways this time.
Say hello to Afcom Holdings Ltd, a cargo airline that went from ₹14 Cr in revenue (FY21) to ₹239 Cr (FY25) — a 17x flight path without much turbulence (except maybe the debt runway).
From delivering boxes in ASEAN to tying up with Etihad, Bangkok, and IATA, Afcom is no small freight fry anymore.
2. ✈️ Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
- Operates airport-to-airport air cargo services.
- Key markets: Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia — ASEAN focus.
- Clients include logistics majors, export firms, and global carriers.
- Recently added Boeing 737-800 to the fleet (leased).
- Runs on asset-light + dry lease model — think Air India Express, but for cartons.
✅ Diversified Routes
✅ International Permits
✅ IATA Clearing House access (2025)
3. 💸 Financials Overview – Profit, Margins, ROE, Growth
| Metric | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 84 | 148 | 239 |
| PAT (₹ Cr) | 14 | 25 | 48 |
| OPM | 22% | 24% | 29% |
| ROE | 30% | 30% | 29.9% |
| EPS (₹) | 7.78 | 14.12 | 19.48 |
📈 3-Year CAGR:
- Revenue: 70%
- PAT: 112%
- TTM PAT growth: 93%
Basically, it’s flying faster than your last 5 delivery packages combined.
4. 📊 Valuation – Is It Cheap, Meh, or Crack?
- CMP: ₹861
- TTM P/E: 44.2x
- P/BV: 9.71x
- Market Cap: ₹2,140 Cr
- FY25 PAT: ₹48 Cr
- EV/EBITDA (rough est.): ~30x
🎯 Fair Value Range (FY27E basis)
Assume PAT grows 40% in FY26, then slows to 25% CAGR for next 2 years:
- FY27E PAT ≈ ₹95–100 Cr
- Assigning P/E of 25–30x (since high growth but smallcap SME)
- FV Market Cap = ₹2,375 – ₹3,000 Cr
- Fair Value per share = ₹955 – ₹1,210
🟡 Near FV Zone Already — future returns depend on scale-up execution and not crashing into fuel costs.
5. 🚀 What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
- 🛫 Boeing 737-800 acquired in late 2024 (dry lease)
- ✅ Air Operator Permit approved (Dec 2024)
- 🤝 Etihad contract for long-term cargo flights
- 📈 IATA Clearing House membership (May 2025) – boosts global billing credibility
- 🌏 New ASEAN routes launched (Bangkok, Singapore)
If this were a movie, it’d be Cargo Wale 2: The Rise of the Load Lords.
6. 🧾 Balance Sheet – How Much Debt, How Many Dreams?
| FY25 Snapshot | ₹ Cr |
|---|---|
| Equity | 25 |
| Reserves | 196 |
| Borrowings | 26 |
| Total Liabilities | 275 |
| Fixed Assets | 17 |
| Total Assets | 275 |
🧠 D/E Ratio = 0.1x
Clean runway, controlled leverage.
🛠️ Massive rise in reserves (from ₹56 Cr in FY23 to ₹196 Cr in FY25) shows retained earnings strategy.
7. 💵 Cash Flow – Sab Number Game Hai
| Year | CFO (₹ Cr) | FCF (Rough) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | -₹33 | -₹45 | Capex + receivables |
| FY24 | -₹23 | -₹30 | Same story |
| FY25 | +₹27 | -₹77 | Positive ops, but huge ₹104 Cr investing outflow |
📛 Red Flag: High capex & asset purchase burn FCF.
But is it expansion or cash incineration? Jury’s out.
8. 🔍 Ratios – Sexy or Stressy?
| Ratio | FY25 |
|---|---|
| ROCE | 37.2% |
| ROE | 29.9% |
| Debtor Days | 95.5 (👎) |
| Inventory Days | 38 |
| CCC | 113 days (vs 248 last year) ✅ |
| P/BV | 9.71x (⚠️) |
📦 Working Capital improved from 193 days → 117 days, but debtor days rising again. Keep an eye.
9. 📜 P&L Breakdown – Show Me the Money
| Year | Revenue (₹ Cr) | PAT (₹ Cr) | OPM | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 | 14 | -4 | -43% | -19.7 |
| FY23 | 84 | 14 | 22% | 7.78 |
| FY25 | 239 | 48 | 29% | 19.48 |
Margins flying high. From red to record profits in 4 years. Textbook turnaround.
10. ✈️ Peer Comparison – Who Else Is in the Game?
| Company | CMP | P/E | OPM | ROE | MCap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afcom | ₹861 | 44x | 29% | 29.9% | ₹2,140 Cr |
| Blue Dart | ₹6,690 | 62x | 15% | 17.3% | ₹15,875 Cr |
| TCI | ₹1,131 | 21x | 10% | 19.8% | ₹8,827 Cr |
| Delhivery | ₹396 | 177x | 4% | 1.8% | ₹29,560 Cr |
💥 Afcom wins on ROE, OPM, and growth — but valuation getting priced in fast.
11. 🧠 Miscellaneous – Shareholding, Promoters
| Shareholder Type | Sep ’24 | Mar ’25 |
|---|---|---|
| Promoter | 42.73% | 42.73% |
| FIIs | 3.5% → 0% | Exit? |
| DIIs | 0.9% → 1% | Increasing slowly |
| Public | 52.8% → 56.2% | 👀 Retail jumping in |
📢 Number of shareholders more than doubled in 6 months – classic FOMO?
12. 🧑⚖️ EduInvesting Verdict™
Afcom is not your uncle’s transport company.
It’s building an air cargo monopoly-lite, one Boeing lease at a time. If execution continues, margins sustain, and they don’t crash into oil price shocks, this could become a midcap freight rocket.
But P/E 44x isn’t cheap.
📊 Fair Value Range: ₹955 – ₹1,210 (based on FY27E)
Will the stock deliver more than just cargo? Or are we boarding after the rally?
Time — and runway — will tell. 🛬
✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 July 8, 2025
Tags: Afcom Holdings, air cargo, logistics stock, SME IPO, Boeing 737-800, Etihad freight, freight airline, EduInvesting style, high ROE, valuation analysis
