Paytm — the fintech wonder boy turned stock market punching bag — might just be staging one of the most underrated comebacks of Dalal Street. You remember the memes. You remember the crash. But what you might have missed is that this once-beaten, never-shy digital payments player has quietly jumped over 170% from its lows, and investors are now wondering: Is Paytm the Rocky Balboa of Indian fintech? Or just shadowboxing again?
Let’s break it down.
📉 From IPO Darling to Digital Disaster
When One97 Communications, the parent company of Paytm, listed in 2021, it was nothing short of a spectacle. India’s biggest IPO. Celebrity endorsements. Mobile wallets for every chaiwala. But what followed was less of a bull run and more of a crash landing.
- IPO Price: ₹2,150
- All-Time Low: ₹285
- Current Price (as of May 8, 2025): ₹835
- Recovery from Lows: 🚀 +193%
This is the kind of chart that gives traders emotional whiplash.
📊 Financials — The Good, The Bad & The “Beta Thoda Aur Time Do”
Let’s dig into the numbers and see if this isn’t just a dead cat bounce.
| Quarter | Revenue (₹ Cr) | Operating Profit (₹ Cr) | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar ’25 | 2,135.3 | -88.6 | -539.8 | -8.5 |
| Dec ’24 | 2,016.5 | -222.4 | -208.3 | -3.3 |
| Sep ’24 | 1,834 | -403.3 | +928.3 (surprise!) | +14.6 |
| Jun ’24 | 1,639.1 | -792.2 | -838.9 | -13.2 |
Here’s the twist: Paytm turned profitable in Sep ’24, only to slip back into red. It’s the financial version of “Ek pal mein toh aataar, doosre mein chala jaata hai.” Still, losses are narrowing. From a -₹761 Cr net loss in Mar ’22 to -₹539 Cr in Mar ’25 — that’s a lot of bandages on the balance sheet.
💀 But Wait… Didn’t RBI Break Up With Them?
Yes, that breakup was messy. Earlier in 2024, the RBI essentially ghosted Paytm Payments Bank, revoking approvals and forcing Paytm to rework its backend like an engineering student the night before exams.
But guess what? They pivoted. Fast.
- All wallet services were migrated.
- UPI payments continued.
- The parent company leaned into its merchant and lending businesses.
The “We’ve changed, baby” pitch is strong here. And apparently, some investors are starting to believe it.
🤖 The Growth Narrative: Not Dead Yet!
While wallet dreams may have faded, other arms of the empire are flexing:
- Merchant Payments: Paytm now claims over 30 million merchants on its platform. That’s more than the number of people who claimed to be “early investors” in Bitcoin.
- Loan Distribution: Partner NBFCs disbursed over ₹5,000 Cr in loans in FY25. Of course, the loans are on the NBFCs’ books, but Paytm earns commission like your neighbourhood middleman, minus the scooter.
- Soundbox Craze: You can’t throw a samosa in India without hitting a Paytm Soundbox. They’ve become the new status symbol for chai stalls.
💰 So Why the Rally?
Here’s why Paytm’s stock has turned into Sharma ji ka beta again:
- Cost Cutting: Expenses are down significantly, with Opex falling from ₹2,490 Cr in Mar ’24 to ₹2,000 Cr in Mar ’25. Finally, someone found the unsubscribe button.
- Steady Revenue: While not growing dramatically, revenue has been stable — indicating Paytm isn’t just surviving, it’s clawing its way back.
- Narrative Shift: The shift from “Payments bank failure” to “Profit-focused fintech platform” is helping analysts sleep better.
- Retail Love: Let’s be real — Indians love a good comeback story. Paytm is the Govinda of the stock market — written off too soon.
📉 The Risks (Because Every Masala Film Needs a Villain)
Hold your unicorns, though. There are real concerns:
- Still Loss-Making: While losses are narrowing, they’re still substantial. One bad quarter and the gains could evaporate like your new year’s resolution.
- Regulatory Uncertainty: RBI may not be done yet. One more stern circular, and Paytm’s party could be over.
- Competition: PhonePe, Google Pay, CRED, BharatPe — all are hungrily eyeing the same pie.
📈 Can It Become a Multibagger?
Look, it’s already up 193% from its lows. Technically, it’s already done some multibagging — but from the floor of despair.
To return to IPO price? That’s a 157% jump from current levels. Possible? Yes. Probable? Depends on how the next 4 quarters go.
Some things that could drive it:
- Return to consistent profits
- Fresh strategic partnership
- RBI nod for another regulated entity
- Listing of subsidiaries
Until then, investors might want to watch with popcorn.
🧠 TL;DR for Lazy Readers
- Paytm is up 193% from its 52-week low of ₹285, currently at ₹835.
- The company turned a surprise profit in one quarter, though overall it still posts losses.
- Business pivots and cost-cutting have helped improve investor sentiment.
- Regulatory uncertainty and competition remain risks.
- It’s a high-risk, high-reward comeback stock — sort of like Bollywood actors who turn spiritual and come back jacked.
