At a Glance

India’s most hyped logistics unicorn, Delhivery, has finally broken the curse of red ink and posted a ₹162 Cr net profit in FY25. From -98% OPM to +5% OPM, it’s been a long ride. With the Ecom Express merger now approved, will this be the year Delhivery delivers to its shareholders too?

🚚 Act 1: From “Cash Burn” to “Cash Earn”

Delhivery’s early business model was simple:

• Raise VC money
• Burn it in pricing wars
• Repeat until unicorn status unlocked 🦄

But FY25? Yeh game alag hai boss.

• Revenue FY25: ₹8,932 Cr (↑10% YoY)
• Net Profit FY25: ₹162 Cr vs ₹249 Cr loss in FY24
• Operating Profit: ₹376 Cr vs ₹127 Cr in FY24
• Operating Margin (OPM): 4% vs 2% last year

Delhivery is no longer just the logistics darling of startups; it’s becoming a grown-up logistics operator with full-stack services, software tools, and profitability to flaunt.

💥 Act 2: What Just Changed?

Let’s break down the top 3 reasons Delhivery’s financials flipped:

1. 🧠 Cost Discipline, Finally

• Cut flab in excess capacity and tech R&D expenses
• Restructured routes, automation investments starting to yield margin expansion
• OPEX control = ₹500+ Cr margin swing over 2 years

2. 🚀 Volume Recovery

• Parcel volumes and PTL freight saw steady QoQ rise
• Delhivery Direct launched in Delhi & Bengaluru – intracity play to boost density
• No longer just a B2B logistics play – now dipping toes into Swiggy-meets-Dunzo waters

3. 🤝 M&A Masterstroke: Ecom Express Deal

• Acquired 99.4% of Ecom Express for ₹1,407 Cr
• Access to 2,000+ pin codes and reverse logistics infra
• Revenue synergies + cost optimization = cha-ching 💸

💹 Act 3: Shareholders Be Like, “Ab Return Dega?”

Even though profits came in, the stock hasn’t exactly delivered joy.

Let’s be honest: The 160x P/E is nosebleed-worthy. But…

📉 The stock is still down 10% YoY

📉 Down 11% CAGR over 3 years

😵 FIIs have dumped from 74% → 52% in 2 years

Meanwhile, DIIs have increased from 7% to 30%. Smart money rotation?

🧠 Act 4: Strengths and Red Flags

✅ What We Like

• Largest 3PL logistics operator in India now turning profitable
• Strong tech stack: End-to-end integration of warehousing + software + delivery
• Network advantage after Ecom deal
• Margins improving across quarters (Dec & Mar quarters OPM > 4%)

🚨 What We Don’t

• Still heavy on other income: ₹442 Cr included in FY25 profits 👀
• Low ROCE: Just 3%
• Free cash flow? Not juicy enough – Capex guzzles cash every year
• Heavy depreciation (₹535 Cr FY25) makes PAT look lean

🧮 Valuation Check: Fair or Fantasy?

Let’s take a breather from the frothy P/E. Here’s a more sober way:

EV/EBITDA Method (FY25)

• EBITDA = ₹376 Cr
• EV/EBITDA peer average = 20x (Blue Dart, TCI, VRL)
• Fair EV = 20 × ₹376 Cr = ₹7,520 Cr
• Net debt = ₹0 (almost debt-free!)
• Equity Value ≈ ₹7,520 Cr
• Fair Value = ₹100–120/share

😬 That’s a massive discount to CMP ₹358.

But wait — Delhivery is not a low-margin transporter. It’s a tech-first logistics company, remember?

So let’s do a Tech-Logistics Blended FV:

🎯 Final Fair Value Range: ₹270–350

🕵️‍♂️ Who’s Holding the Package?

Promoters: Nahi hain (0%)

Delhivery is a professional-run, investor-heavy setup.

Top Shareholders:

• SoftBank, Tiger Global, Carlyle are still hanging in there
• DIIs up to 30% — strong institutional faith
• Public Shareholding is low but rising

📦 Final Dispatch: Edu TL;DR

• 🧠 Delhivery has finally turned profitable — ₹162 Cr PAT in FY25
• 📦 Ecom Express acquisition is a game-changer
• 💰 Valuation remains premium but justified partially by tech + scale + growth potential
• ⚠️ But beware: ROCE is low, other income props up net profit, and growth isn’t cheap

✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 22 June 2025

Tags: Delhivery, Ecom Express, Logistics Stocks, NSE Stocks, Tech Logistics, Indian Startups, EduInvesting, IPO Stocks, Unicorns, FY25 Profits, Indian Markets