🧠 At a Glance
Once the undisputed lord of Indian fintech, Paytm rode on UPI waves, SoftBank blessings, and Vijay Shekhar Sharma’s energy drink-fueled vision. But after the IPO crash, RBI punches, and SEBI fireballs, investors are still wondering: What is this company even trying to be? A bank? A payments app? A loans platform? A super app? Or just… a cash burn generator?
📊 5-Year Financial Snapshot
| FY | Revenue (₹ Cr) | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) | OPM % | ROE % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2,801 | -1,701 | -280.4 | -66% | – |
| 2022 | 4,974 | -2,396 | -36.9 | -48% | -22% |
| 2023 | 7,990 | -1,776 | -28.0 | -21% | -12% |
| 2024 | 9,978 | -1,422 | -22.3 | -9% | -8% |
| 2025 | 6,900 | -663 | -10.3 | -22% | -10.3% |
🚨 Net Loss of ₹7,958 Cr over 5 years.
🩸 Operating margins? From -66% to… still -22%.
📉 Quarterly Trend (FY24–25)
| Quarter | Revenue (₹ Cr) | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) | OPM % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | 1,502 | -840 | -13.2 | -53% |
| Q2 FY25 | 1,660 | +930 | +14.6 | -24% |
| Q3 FY25 | 1,828 | -208 | -3.3 | -12% |
| Q4 FY25 | 1,912 | -545 | -8.5 | -5% |
🧨 Q2 had a mysterious “Other Income” spike of ₹1,524 Cr (one-off). Otherwise? Deep in red.
🛠️ What Does Paytm Even Do Now?
✅ Payments (QR, POS)
- 1.12 Cr devices on ground
- Zero MDR still hurts monetization
✅ Lending (via NBFC partners)
- Disbursed loans = ₹5,046 Cr (May 2025)
- But RBI banned their Paytm Payments Bank. So they had to go full-DLG (Digital Lending Guidelines)
✅ Commerce, Cloud, Insurance Aggregator
- Fancy buzzwords, but low monetization
🚩 Red Flags Waving Like It’s Republic Day
🔥 1. RBI Banned Paytm Payments Bank
- Cited KYC violations, shady data handling
- Cut off UPI rails — massive blow to trust
- Users & merchants had to shift fast
🧾 2. GST Sword: ₹5,712 Cr Dispute
- Subsidiary First Games under scanner
- SC stay = temporary relief
- If it reopens? Huge contingent liability
💣 3. No Moat + Every Fintech Competing
- PhonePe, Google Pay, BharatPe, MobiKwik
- Unlike others, Paytm doesn’t have a bank (anymore)
- Nor the deepest pockets now
💸 Stock Price Performance
| IPO Price | ₹2,150 |
|---|---|
| All-time Low | ₹400 |
| Current Price | ₹865 |
| Return Since IPO | -59.7% ❌ |
| Return from Lows | +116% ✅ |
So yes, the stock doubled from lows. But still deep in the IPO valley of death.
🧾 Balance Sheet Snippets (FY25)
| Item | Value (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| Reserves | ₹14,963 |
| Borrowings | ₹160 |
| Cash + Investments | ₹4,172 |
| Total Assets | ₹21,448 |
| Equity Capital | ₹64 Cr |
✅ Low debt
✅ Still has cash runway
🚫 But burning it fast: Net cash flow FY25 = -₹2,217 Cr
🧠 Fair Value Estimate (Edu Style)
Method 1: P/S Approach (generous)
- FY25 Revenue = ₹6,900 Cr
- Assume 3–4x P/S (given no profits, but high user base)
🎯 FV Range = ₹207 – ₹276
Method 2: DCF-style Loss Absorption
- Cash burn ~₹1,500 Cr annually
- Cash + Inv = ₹4,172 Cr
- Company may need capital raise in 12–18 months
🎯 Implied FV Range = ₹180 – ₹240 (based on equity erosion)
✅ EduInvesting Fair Value = ₹180 – ₹276
CMP = ₹865 ❌
This is 3x–4x overvalued unless something miraculous happens (like RBI U-turn or profitable lending scale-up)
👥 Shareholding Drama
| Holder | Mar 2023 | Mar 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| FIIs | 71.8% | 55.4% 🔻 |
| DIIs | 3.2% | 14.0% 🔼 |
| Public | 25.0% | 30.6% 🔼 |
🔁 FIIs selling, retail absorbing
Institutional confidence = fading
ESOP dilution = ongoing
🧵 TL;DR – Paytm Today = Good Product, Bad Business
- ✅ UPI pioneer
- ✅ 11 Cr devices
- ❌ Negative margins
- ❌ Banned banking ops
- ❌ Still finding a business model
🧠 EduInvesting Verdict
Paytm is like that IIT topper who refused to sit for campus placements because he “has a startup idea”… 10 years later, still explaining the vision on LinkedIn.
Unless they get regulatory trust back and achieve profitable lending at scale, the fair value remains well below current price.
✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 18 June 2025
Tags: Paytm, One 97 Communications, Vijay Shekhar Sharma, UPI, RBI Ban, GST Notice, Fintech Stocks, EduInvesting Fair Value
